Group 1 - The risk premiums for various assets, including stocks and gold, have increased since early September, driven by gold reaching new record highs [1][3] - Despite rising risk premiums, implied volatility on benchmark indexes has remained steady or even decreased throughout most of the year, indicating a lack of significant market swings [2][4] - Factors influencing the narrow trading ranges and rising risk premiums include rate-cut expectations for gold, supply and demand dynamics for oil, and uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve and corporate earnings affecting stocks [3][4] Group 2 - In the equities market, options volume reached a record high in September, with investors beginning to hedge against potential market movements as year-end approaches [4] - The S&P 500 Index has experienced low volatility due to low correlation among individual stocks, which has kept the VIX index muted despite rising single-stock volatility as earnings season approaches [5][6] - The oil market has shown limited movement, remaining within a narrow range due to a balance between expectations of oversupply and geopolitical tensions affecting supply, which has also contributed to low volatility [7]

The longer your holding period, the fewer apologies you owe to volatility. ...

Market Volatility - Bitcoin Bollinger Band 月度数据触及历史新低 [1] - 低波动性之后通常会出现爆发式上涨 [1]

Core Insights - Tesla's third-quarter 2025 delivery numbers increased by 7% year over year, exceeding market expectations of approximately 447,600 deliveries, largely due to a rush of buyers before the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit [1][2] - The sustainability of Tesla's growth remains uncertain, as the expiration of the EV incentive may lead to a decline in demand, with CEO Elon Musk indicating potential challenges in the upcoming quarters [2][3] Tesla's Challenges - The expiration of the federal EV subsidy is expected to create a demand cliff in North America, compounded by intense competition from Chinese EV manufacturers like BYD [3] - Tesla faces the ongoing challenge of managing expectations for its high-risk ventures, including Full Self-Driving technology and the Optimus humanoid robot [3] Investment Alternatives - Investors may find better value and stability in ETFs focused on legacy automakers such as General Motors and Ford, which have diversified operations across the entire automobile market [4][5] - Legacy automakers can leverage profitable segments like internal combustion engine vehicles and hybrids, providing a buffer against volatility in pure EV demand [5][6] - Financially, legacy automakers offer lower valuations and generally lower volatility compared to Tesla, positioning them better to handle the anticipated softening of the EV market post-subsidy [6] ETFs to Consider - **Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value ETF (RPV)**: This fund focuses on value characteristics and includes General Motors (2.94%) and Ford Motor (2.88%) among its top holdings, with an 18.6% increase over the past six months [8] - **iShares U.S. Manufacturing ETF (MADE)**: This fund provides exposure to U.S. manufacturing companies, including General Motors (3.84%) and Ford Motor (3.15%), with a 41% increase in the past six months [9][10] - **Pacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF (COWZ)**: This fund targets companies with high free cash flow yields, featuring Ford (2.05%) among its top holdings, and has seen a 17.4% increase in the past six months [11]

⚡️ INSIGHT: $4.3B worth of $BTC and $ETH options expire today.Expiries often fuel volatility as traders adjust positions and hedge their risks. https://t.co/H4q1kgykSm ...

💥BREAKING:$4,330,000,000 WORTH OF BITCOIN & ETHEREUM OPTIONS EXPIRE TODAY.EXPECT VOLATILITY! ...

BREAKING:$4,330,000,000 IN BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM OPTIONS WILL EXPIRE TODAY.HIGH VOLATILITY EXPECTED! ...

Volatility for yen interest rates has climbed above that of euro ones for the first time in seven years https://t.co/ifrQ63MwmO ...

Volatility is coming. That is the message from Goldman Sachs. They say that volatility tends to be 25% higher in October.It says 1928 October S&P realized volatility average 18 vol versus 15 vol for other months. Seth Associates say that they believe high October volatility is more than just a coincidence. They say that they believe it is a critical period for many investors and companies that manage performance to calendar year end.Regardless of why it happens or what you think is actually driving this, th ...

Core Viewpoint - Occidental Petroleum Corp is experiencing significant market volatility following Berkshire Hathaway's $9.7 billion acquisition of its chemical business, OxyChem, which has impacted its stock performance and investor sentiment [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - OXY shares are currently trading down 6.2% at $44.77, reversing earlier gains and testing the 80-day moving average [2]. - The stock has declined 9.5% in 2025 and 16.4% year over year, with a risk of breaching a channel of higher highs established since its three-year low of $34.78 on April 9 [2]. - Short-term traders are exhibiting bearish sentiment, as indicated by a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.18, which is in the 96th percentile of the past 12 months [2]. Group 2: Options Activity - The current options market shows a preference for calls, with 118,000 options traded, of which 82,000 are calls, representing five times the average intraday volume [3]. - The most popular contract is the weekly 10/3 46-strike, where new positions are being opened [3]. Group 3: Volatility and Strategy - The premium for options is currently affordably priced, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 33% ranking in the 12th percentile of its annual range [4]. - A premium-selling strategy may be advantageous moving forward, as OXY's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is at 19 out of 100, indicating that the stock has consistently realized lower volatility than what its options have priced in [4].