就今天A股的走势来看，确实挺强的，明明是低开，最后还是高走，收盘还给微涨了。 本来外面人家搞得"热火朝天"，A股理应继续向下才对，但就是不，顽强上涨，面子里子都有了。 我没有任何下手的冲动，A股刚刚走出顶部背离趋势，此刻的任何反攻，我都认为是纸老虎，不会太长 久。 第一：地产再度走高 这个周末关于地产的消息还不少，先是国家开会，提出构建房地产发展新模式，多管齐下稳预期，更大 力度推动地产市场止跌回稳。 后来广州直接发文，为提振消费，对地产彻底取消所有限制，也就是"三限"全部取消，限购、限售、限 价。现在广州的地产可以自由奔放了。 拿到消息，我立刻咨询了正准备在广州买房的同学，他说放开越多，跌得越多，感觉影响不大。 第二：整车和白酒，成兄弟了 当然是难兄难弟，两个都处于今天跌幅的前列。都是产能不平衡带来对未来的担忧。 静心等待，A股顺应本身的波动，是最好的操作。 很多人以为轻仓观望就不是操作，错了，这也是一种操作，只不过是一种较为特殊的操作。 板块上： 这两个我现在也说不准谁更难了，只能够交给时间，但我不会此刻去搅这趟浑水，只有静观其变。 第三：金融稍微护盘 银行、保险和证券，今天都较为强势，算是护盘了。不过这 ...

"之前大家普遍认为，美国国债是全球最可靠的投资，但现在黄金时刻已经过去。"胡一帆提到，今年5月，国 际信用评级机构穆迪108年来首次将美国主权信用评级从"AAA"下调到"AA+"，原因是4月2日关税"大棒"挥出 后，投资者开始不再买入甚至抛售美国国债，致使20年期美国国债利率升至约5%，10年期达到约4.5%。同 时，市场预测美联储仍要降息，美元或将进一步走弱，叠加债务不确定，关税政策变化等多重压力，全球投资 者正在主动重新进行资产配置。 全球资产再配置 "一个特别有意思的现象，之前大家嘴上说要全球多元化配置，但主要还是集中在美股、美债。但今年'美 国例外论'可能渐渐不适用了。"瑞银财富管理大中华区投资总监及亚太区宏观经济主管胡一帆近日在媒体 会上表示。 几乎同一时间，申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟也表示，2025年上半年，全球宏观经济最大的预期差是"美国 例外论"被证伪。在关税、滞胀、降息、AI产业等因素的交织中，全球资金再平衡将如何呈现？ 美国不再例外 过去一段时间，当全球市场动荡的时候，美元资产往往成为当之无愧的"避风港"，甚至于越是市场动荡，美 元、美债表现越好，也即所谓的"美国例外论"。但现在，这一叙 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the proactive and pragmatic foreign policy stance of South Korea's new president, Lee Jae-myung, aiming for balanced diplomacy among major powers [1][3][6] - Lee Jae-myung's administration emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable relationship with China, given that 40% of South Korea's semiconductor exports depend on the Chinese market [3][6] - The appointment of Kim Min-sik as Prime Minister, who has a strong connection to China, signals Lee's intention to foster stable Sino-Korean relations [3][6] Group 2 - The articles discuss the backlash from certain anti-China factions in the U.S. against Lee's foreign policy adjustments, reflecting the complexities of U.S. domestic policy towards China [4][6] - Lee's administration faces pressure from the U.S. but maintains a stance of not unconditionally aligning with any side, particularly regarding the Taiwan issue [6][8] - The articles suggest that Lee's foreign policy adjustments could provide South Korea with a valuable opportunity to navigate the ongoing U.S.-China strategic competition while enhancing its own voice in multilateral mechanisms [8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃周报 2025.6.9-6.13 上周玻璃期货低位震荡，主力合约FG2509收盘较前一周下跌2.11%报976元/吨。现 货方面，河北沙河白玻大板报价1044元/吨，较前一周下跌1.51%。 供给方面，玻璃现货价格下跌，行业利润继续恶化，天然气产线亏损加剧，行业冷 修量高位，上周全国浮法玻璃生产线在产224条，开工率75.57%，日熔量15.57万吨，供 给处于历史低位。需求方面，季节性淡季来临，地产终端需求恢复缓慢，叠加南方正处 于梅雨季，整体来看下游多数加工厂订单不能饱和，散单为主下，采购原片亦是维持刚 需。截止6月12日，全国浮法玻璃企业库存6968.50万重量箱，较前一周减少0.10%。综 合来看，玻璃供需双弱，预期期价低位震荡偏弱运行 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，5月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月 上升0.5个百分点，制造业继续保持恢复发展态势；中性。 2、基差：现货78715，基差705，升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：6月13日铜库存减2375至114475吨，上期所铜库存较上周减5461吨至101943吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向上运行；中性。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空减；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性增强，铜价震荡运行为主. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 现货 地方 中间价 涨跌 库存 类型 总量（吨 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 三、 居民消费购房需求待改善，零售信用扩张延续偏弱态势 事件： 2025年6月13日，央行公布了5月金融统计数据，数据显示： 点评： 一、 需求相对不足压制下5月信贷继续同比少增 5月新增人民币贷款6200亿，同比少增3300亿，增速降至7.1%。有效融资需求尚未实质性转暖，5月作为季 中月份，其信贷投放情况同季初月份存在一定相似性。读数层面，5月人民币贷款增量较4月改善，除季节 性因素影响外，外部形势变动也是影响贷款投放的重要变量，5月中美谈判阶段性缓和，部分外贸企业抓 紧关税豁免期窗口抢出口，带动信贷需求增长。此外，5月用于地方化债发行的特殊再融资专项债净增规 模较前期有所回落，对信贷读数负向拖累有所减轻，还原约2000亿 ...

Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铁矿观点：宏观驱动摇摆，震荡反复 | | 条目 | 最近一周切片数据 当周值 | 环比 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 全球发货量 | 3510. 4 | 79.4 | 478. 8 | | | 澳发货量 | 2093. 6 | 196. 8 | 140. 1 | | | 巴发货量 | 745. 8 | -188. 0 | 105. 6 | | 供应 | 力拓-中国发货量 | 500. 2 | -0.7 | -21.8 | | | BHP-中国发货量 | 586. 5 | 72. 1 | 105. 3 | | | FMG-中国发货量 | 483. 0 | 148. 8 | 143.8 | | | Vale-全球发货量 | 486. 0 | -219.9 | 66. 7 | | 雷求 | 247企业铁水产量 | 241. 61 | -0. 19 | 5. 86 | | 库存 | 45港进口矿库存 | 13933.1 | 106. 4 ...

Core Insights - The opening of the Aikang Yuyang flagship center in Hangzhou marks a significant milestone for Aikang Group, reflecting a 20-year vision of founder Zhang Ligang to promote healthier living and longevity through a combination of natural and technological solutions [2][4][6] Group 1: Aikang Yuyang Flagship Center - The flagship center spans 7,000 square meters and integrates four main functional areas: Functional Medicine Center, Health Living Center, VIP Health Check Center, and Membership Service Center, creating a comprehensive health management ecosystem [4][9] - The center aims to shift from traditional passive treatment to proactive health management, focusing on transforming short-term wellness experiences into long-term healthy behaviors [6][10] - Aikang Group serves approximately 8 million people annually, with over 15,000 cancer diagnoses, emphasizing the importance of monitoring individuals with abnormal health indicators [6][10] Group 2: Market Positioning and Strategy - The decision to locate the center in Hangzhou's Xixi Wetland was based on its strategic advantages, including proximity to high-net-worth individuals and the ability to provide a seamless health management experience [7][9] - The center is designed to cater to the needs of affluent clients who seek high-quality wellness experiences without the need for international travel [7][9] Group 3: Health Management Approach - Aikang Yuyang promotes a non-pharmaceutical treatment philosophy, targeting individuals aged 40 to 60 who are willing to invest time and resources into their health [10][18] - The center employs advanced health assessments, including sleep monitoring and cardiopulmonary exercise testing, to create personalized health management plans [12][17] - A variety of therapeutic services, such as cryotherapy and oxygen therapy, are offered to enhance physical well-being and promote a balanced lifestyle [18][21] Group 4: Technological Integration and Future Plans - Aikang Group has expanded its service offerings through technological advancements, including AI health management and genetic testing, laying the groundwork for the flagship center [28][30] - A strategic partnership with Fudan University’s Longevity and Aging Research Institute aims to enhance life quality and facilitate the application of research in health management [30]

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 综合作者：投资史记 来源：雪球 由于A股投资的高波动性，即便是退而求次的主动基金投资，很多人近几年也都损失惨重。 国内各种投顾组合，虽然也是百花齐放，但投资的收益和风险对比并不尽如人意，因为没有加入国外投资标 的，难以对冲国内市场高波动的系统性风险。 经典的国外资产配置组合理论，股债 6040 组合，大卫·史文森推荐的懒人永久组合以及耶鲁校产基金组合、 达利奥全天候组合等，虽经历史验证，由于投资标的诸多限制原因，国内跟踪的类似组合不多。 鉴于自己投资多年以来的思考，2019年开始接触资产配置概念以后，考虑组合投资，陆续建立、又陆续关闭 了很多跟踪组合，现在用雪球的三分法，做一个经典投资组合配置，操作和执行反而简单很多，分享给大 家。 01 普通人如何一键实现经典资产组合配置？ 经典的资产配置组合，国外有很多网站都能看到，它们基于基金进行组合回测的"复刻"方式，历史收益及回 撤等信息。 雪球上的资产配置三分法，就有类似这样的一个功能，不但能提前对构建组合进行回测，还可以一键配置， 省时省心，以我构建的$资配-全天候$ 为例： ...

Real Estate Industry - The real estate market is expected to stabilize gradually, divided into three phases: housing transaction volume, housing prices, and real estate investment [3] - The core point for entering a positive cycle is the upward shift in housing price expectations due to changes in supply and demand structure, which should be a key signal for market observation [3] - Policy measures need to be more decisive to facilitate stabilization, focusing on adjusting supply and demand structures and mitigating risks from enterprises [3] - The probability of a "medium policy" scenario for the real estate fundamentals in 2025 is high, with sales performance potentially exceeding expectations due to the prolonged effects of the 926 policy [3] - A recovery in total housing sales to historically reasonable levels could lead to significant upward potential, with new housing transaction volumes likely to see greater recovery [3] Strategy - The A-share market has shown signs of improvement in early 2025, but external uncertainties are rising, impacting market dynamics [8] - The expected market rhythm for the second half of 2025 is "steady first, then rise," with upward potential dependent on comprehensive policy support [9] - Investment focus should be on certainty in uncertain environments, including opportunities from capacity cycles, high-growth sectors with low correlation to economic cycles, and dividend-paying sectors [9] Macroeconomy - The GDP growth rate has improved while prices remain weak, indicating a widening demand gap due to restrained policy measures [18] - The real estate sector's drag on the economy is expected to continue narrowing, contributing to a "quasi-balance" recovery [18] - The core CPI inflation is anticipated to improve slightly in the second half of the year, but overall inflation is expected to remain weak [18] New Consumption Trends - Despite overall consumption being insufficient, new consumption trends are emerging, characterized by a shift towards quality and rational spending [23] - The Z generation is becoming a key driver of the new consumption wave, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [23] - The potential for consumption in lower-tier cities is increasing as the drag from real estate weakens [23]