-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡 焦煤——震荡 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 伊以冲突结束，关注焦煤对原油扰动的反应 报告内容摘要: 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 24 日 [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 1. 伊朗高级官员确认，德黑兰已同意由卡塔尔斡旋、美国提出的与以色列 的停火协议。 焦煤： 现货偏弱，期货震荡上行。蒙 5#主焦煤报 868 元/吨(-0)。活跃合约报 807 元/吨(+12)。 基差 81 元/吨(-12)，9-1 月差-36 元/吨（-10）。 矿端复产，焦企产能利用率下调。523 家矿山开工率报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. housing market remains constrained due to affordability issues, despite a slight increase in existing home sales in May 2023, reflecting the ongoing challenges faced by buyers [1][3]. Group 1: Sales Data - In May 2023, existing home sales totaled an annualized 4.03 million units, exceeding expectations of 3.95 million units and slightly up from the previous month's 4 million units [1]. - Month-over-month, existing home sales increased by 0.8%, contrary to the expected decline of 1.3% [1]. - Year-over-year, existing home sales decreased by 4% [1]. - May 2023 marked only the second increase in existing home sales this year, yet it represented the weakest May performance since 2009 [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Prices - Housing inventory rose by 6.2% in May, reaching 1.54 million units, the highest level in five years [1]. - The median sales price in May increased by 1.3% year-over-year to $422,800, setting a record for the same period [2]. - Over the past five years, home prices have cumulatively risen by 51% [2]. - Despite an increase in inventory, home prices have not declined significantly, indicating a resilient market overall [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - High mortgage rates, currently near 7%, are identified as a primary factor contributing to low sales volumes, with expectations of rates remaining above 6% for at least the next year [1][3]. - The luxury market, defined as homes priced at $1 million or more, is experiencing sales performance that is not superior to lower-priced homes [4]. - In May, 60% of homes sold within a month of listing, consistent with April's figures, while 28% sold above the listing price, down from 30% in May of the previous year [4]. - The South region saw a 1.7% increase in existing home sales, with an annualized sales volume of 1.84 million units, while the West region experienced a 5.4% decline [4]. Group 4: Buyer Composition - Individual investors or buyers of second homes accounted for 17% of sales in May, up from 15% in April, while cash transactions made up 27% of total sales [4]. - First-time homebuyers represented 30% of the sales volume, indicating their ongoing efforts to enter the market [4]. - Existing home sales constitute approximately 90% of the U.S. real estate market sales volume, with data reflecting decisions made in the preceding months [4].

在宏观经济的大棋局中，房地产市场始终占据着举足轻重的地位。近年来，随着国内外经济形势的风云变幻，我国房地产市场也经历着深刻的变革与调整。 从政策端的频繁发力，到市场供需结构的悄然转变，再到行业发展模式的积极探索，房地产市场的每一个动向都牵动着各方的神经。 尤其是2025年，房地产将处在一个非常关键的时期，对未来起到起承转合的作用。 自 2025 年以来，从4月的会再到6月13日的会，一系列关于房地产市场的重要决策部署不断出台，释放出强烈的政策信号。政策基调从过去的 "止跌回稳" 逐 步升级为 "持续巩固稳定态势"，这一转变意义深远。 在 "优存量" 方面，各地积极探索优化存量商品房收购政策。纷纷参与到存量商品房的收购行动中，将其转化为保障性住房、租赁住房等多种形式。在一些 城市，通过收购闲置的商业公寓并改造为租赁住房，既盘活了大量的闲置资产，又极大地增加了租赁住房的供给，有效缓解了租赁市场房源紧张的局面。这 一举措不仅消化了库存，完善了住房供应体系，还改善了房地产企业的现金流状况，助力企业轻装上阵应对市场调整。 在金融政策方面，对房地产企业合理融资需求的支持力度持续加大。银行等金融机构积极优化对房地产企业的信 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·房地产 房地产行业跟踪周报 新房成交面积同比下滑，多地放松政策持续出 台 增持（维持） 2025 年 06 月 23 日 证券分析师 房诚琦 执业证书：S0600522100002 fangcq@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -9% -3% 3% 9% 15% 21% 27% 33% 39% 45% 2024/6/24 2024/10/23 2025/2/21 2025/6/22 房地产 沪深300 相关研究 《新房成交面积同比回落，更大力度 推动房地产市场止跌回稳》 2025-06-17 《新房二手房成交同环比回落，城市 更新政策持续释放动能》 2025-06-09 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 投资要点 ◼ 上周（2025.6.16-2025.6.20）：上周房地产板块（中信）涨跌幅-1.9%,同期 沪深 300、万得全 A 指数涨跌幅分别为-0.5%、-1.1%，超额收益分别为 -1.5%、-0.9%。29 个中信行业板块中房地产位列第 17。 ◼ （1）新房市场：上周 36 城 ...

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in Shenzhen is experiencing an increase in available listings, with 72,241 units for sale as of June 23, reflecting a rise of 410 units from the previous week. However, price recovery remains limited, and many homeowners are motivated to sell due to market conditions and the influx of new homes [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of June 23, the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen has 72,241 active listings, an increase of 410 from the previous week [1]. - The average negotiation rate for second-hand homes has remained stable at around 9% for seven consecutive weeks, indicating a steady homeowner mindset [1]. - The demand for new homes is being stimulated by the entry of high-efficiency new properties, leading to an increase in the supply of second-hand homes as homeowners seek to upgrade [1]. Group 2: Sales Performance - In the 25th week of 2025, Shenzhen recorded 1,299 second-hand home transactions, a decrease of 11.9% compared to the previous week [2]. - New home sales in Shenzhen have shown a slight increase, reaching 1,150 units, indicating a divergence in the performance between new and second-hand markets [2]. - Major cities are witnessing a trend where the new home market is recovering while the second-hand market lags behind, with cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu showing growth in new home transaction areas [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The second-hand housing market is expected to gradually normalize as educational demand diminishes, with active transactions likely to focus on well-located or high-value properties [2]. - The ongoing competition from the new home market, driven by policy adjustments and developer incentives, may pressure second-hand home prices to decline further if listings continue to rise [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in personal income tax (PIT) revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% from January to May, surpassing the overall tax revenue growth rate of -1.6% [1] - In May, the PIT growth accelerated to 12.3% compared to April, indicating a strong performance among major tax categories [1] - Analysts attribute the high growth in PIT to a combination of economic recovery, enhanced tax administration, wage adjustments, and dividend income [1][3] Group 2 - The marginal recovery in residents' income is a primary driver of the PIT increase, with urban residents' disposable income growing by 4.9% year-on-year in Q1, a 0.3 percentage point increase from Q4 of the previous year [3] - The active second-hand housing market in several cities has also contributed to the rise in PIT revenue [3][4] - The implementation of the "Golden Tax" Phase IV system has strengthened tax collection efforts, utilizing big data and artificial intelligence to monitor tax compliance [7][8] Group 3 - Wage adjustments and dividend income are significant factors influencing the PIT growth, with wages and dividends accounting for nearly 80% of PIT revenue [8] - The potential for continued high PIT growth in the second half of the year is supported by the expectation of further wage adjustments and stable dividend policies [8] - Despite potential economic uncertainties and a cooling real estate market, the likelihood of PIT experiencing negative growth remains low [10]

监测周报 2025 年 6 月 9 日—2025 年 6 月 15 日 总第 345 期 2025 年第 21 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 地方政府债与城投行业 国常会强调更大力度推动房地产止跌回稳 黑龙江健全偿还隐债应急备付金制度 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 19 期】浙江首发用于收购存量商品房的 专项债，城投债净融资规模已连续五周为 负，2025-06-05 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 18 期】加大专项债对国家经开区建设支 持力度，今年地方债置换进度已超八成 2025-05-29 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 梁蕴兮 yxliang@ccxi.com.cn 张 堃 kzhang02@ccxi.com.cn 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 20 期】发改委"376 号文"细化 PPP 新机 制，福建明确专项债资金回收五类情形 2025-06-12 ——地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年第 21 期 ...

赣州在房地产市场改革上持续加码！从 "以旧换新" 补贴政策，到如今的政府收购房源，每一步都精准踩中市场痛点。《赣州市商品住房 "以旧换新" 实施 方案 (试行)》刚给换房人群和市场主体发完补贴 "大礼包"，政府收购房源的新举措又迅速跟进。 早在去年，赣州市人民政府就印发了16条促进房地产市场平稳健康发展的措施，其中明确提出契税补贴、推行房票安置，以及支持收购库存商品房等关键 政策。而这次政府出手收购房源，核心目标直指保民生与稳市场两大关键。 在保障民生方面，收购的房源将直接转化为保障性住房、人才公寓，重点解决中低收入群体和人才的住房难题。比如外来人才和收入有限的家庭，未来将 以更低的租金住进这些房子，真正实现 "住有所居"。 在稳定市场层面，政府通过收购积压的库存房源，帮助房企快速回笼资金，避免因库存过多导致房价大幅波动。这不仅缓解了房企资金链紧张的问题，也 给整个房地产市场吃下了 "定心丸"。 目前，南康区、于都县、信丰县已率先行动。南康区按需收购房源，用于返迁安置和保障住房；于都县计划收购国有企业开发的958套存量商品房（约5.1 万㎡，户型90㎡左右），专门解决工薪阶层的住房困难； 信丰县则聚焦城区优质 ...

近期，广州白云新城举办的第三届南方财富峰会上，数百名来自广东省的企业家和专家学者齐聚一堂。中房集团董事长孟晓苏在接受采访时大胆预测：如果 将2022年中国老百姓新增15万亿存款的三分之一用于购房、装修及相关消费，中国经济便可重振雄风。然而，这一提议却引发了广泛争议，其可行性遭到众 多网友的质疑，理由有三： 一、 经济下行与储蓄意愿的增强： 2022年，疫情反复冲击以及实体经济低迷，导致民众普遍担忧失业和收入减少，购房需求自然被搁置。央行发布的 《2022年第四季度城镇储户问卷调查报告》显示，倾向"更多储蓄"的居民占比高达61.8%，较上一季度增长3.7个百分点，这直接反映出民众对未来经济的谨 慎态度以及风险规避的强烈意愿。 并非所有家庭的存款都增加了，这15万亿的增量更多地流向了本已拥有充裕资金、且无需购房的富裕阶层，而真正需要 购房的低收入群体却往往无力承担。 二、 高房价与购房能力的巨大差距： 即便拥有存款，高昂的房价也构成了巨大的门槛。2022年12月，全国百城新建商品住宅均价高达16177元/平方米，二 手住宅均价也达到15876元/平方米。一套普通住宅动辄需要150万至250万，首付便需50万至60 ...

Group 1: Real Estate Market Analysis - The real estate market in China has experienced a significant bubble, with property prices in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen reaching a price-to-income ratio of 40 times, indicating potential for further price declines [1][3] - A notable case is highlighted where a property purchased for 4 million yuan in 2022 has seen its value drop to 2.65 million yuan, reflecting a price decline of over 30% within two years [1] - The underlying reasons for the real estate bubble's burst include excessive debt leverage among residents, a supply-demand imbalance with supply exceeding demand, and a collapse in market confidence since 2022 [3][5] Group 2: A-Share Market Challenges - The A-share market has seen limited success in wealth generation, with most investors facing losses, as evidenced by an average loss of 54,000 yuan per person in 2023 [1][5] - Key issues in the A-share market include a lack of investment value due to many companies not providing cash dividends, leading to a speculative environment where investors rely on short-term price fluctuations [5] - High initial public offering (IPO) prices, typically above 30-40 times price-to-earnings ratio, have drained future growth potential, resulting in many new stocks experiencing significant declines post-IPO [5]