Core Viewpoint - OPEC has revised down its forecast for oil supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries in 2025, indicating a slowdown in supply growth due to falling oil prices and expected reductions in capital expenditures [1] Group 1: Supply Forecasts - OPEC now expects an increase of approximately 800,000 barrels per day in oil supply from non-OPEC+ countries in 2025, down from the previous forecast of 900,000 barrels per day [1] - The slowdown in supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries will make it easier for OPEC+ to balance the market [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - OPEC anticipates that exploration and production investments in non-OPEC+ regions will decline by about 5% year-on-year in 2025 [1]

同意增产的欧佩克成员国4月仅增产2.5万桶/日，计划为13.8万桶/日 今年4月，欧佩克+成员国谨慎地开始了人们期待已久的石油增产计划，此前该组织计划在未来几个月 更快地提高产量。欧佩克月报显示，同意增加供应的八个国家上个月总共只增加了2.5万桶/日，远低于 计划的13.8万桶/日。4月标志着该联盟重启自2022年以来闲置的供应的长期拖延进程的开始。欧佩克 +最近决定加快5月和6月的供应增长，增幅是原定数量的三倍。沙特甚至警告说，未来几个月油价将进 一步飙升。布伦特原油期货上月跌至每桶60美元以下的四年低点，但随着贸易紧张局势缓解，周三在已 回升至66美元附近。根据欧佩克总部设在维也纳的秘书处的数据，沙特推动减产的努力正显示出一些初 步的成功迹象。 ...

原油日报 | 2025-05-14 需求预期持续改善，油价延续涨势 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所6月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.72美元，收于每桶63.67美元，涨幅为2.78%；7月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.67美元，收于每桶66.63美元，涨幅为2.57%。SC原油主力合约收涨1.70%，报491元/ 桶。 2、美国通胀降温，4月CPI同比2.3%，为自2021年2月以来最低水平。核心CPI同比增长2.8%，为自2021年春季通胀 爆发以来的最低速度。住房成本依旧是通胀关键，机票、二手车、食品价格出现下降。尽管如此，关税的影响仍 未完全显现，企业可能在消化库存。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、沙特承诺向美国投资6000亿美元，覆盖军火、科技、波音飞机、基建和数据中心。白宫称，美国与沙特达成有 史以来两国最大规模的商业协议，含谷歌、DataVolt、甲骨文等公司的800亿美元尖端科技投资、DataVolt的200亿 美元AI数据中心和能源基建投资、48亿美元波音飞机采购、接近1420亿美元的史上最高金额军火销售协议等。沙 特王储称，沙特将努力推动在美国投资额达到1万亿美元。（来源： ...

7. 美国国务院：美国对与伊朗相关的航运网络实施新一轮制裁。伊朗非法出售石油为伊朗武器和胡塞武 装的袭击提供了资金。将继续对伊朗极限施压。 金十数据整理：中东局势跟踪（5月14日） 冲突情况： 其他情况： 1. 伊朗：普京的德黑兰之行计划正筹备中。 2. 市场消息：美国在沙特获得6000亿美元的投资承诺。 3. 美国白宫：美国-沙特达成近1420亿美元的国防销售协议。 4. 法国总统马克龙：内塔尼亚胡在加沙的作为令人感到羞耻。 5. 特朗普访问中东之际，伊朗警告邻国勿轻举妄动，保持中立。 6. 消息人士：伊朗副外长将于5月16日在伊斯坦布尔会见来自法国、英国和德国的高级外交官。 8. 美国总统特朗普：将下令停止对叙利亚的制裁；伊朗将永远不会获得核武器，希望与伊朗达成协议。 但如果伊朗拒绝橄榄枝，我们将别无选择，只能施加最大压力；将使伊朗石油出口降至零。 跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 1. 以军空袭加沙地带南部医院已致28人死亡。 2. 一名与哈马斯关系密切的记者在以军袭击中丧生。 3. 胡塞武装称使用导弹袭击以色列机场并准确命中目标。 4. 以色列总理内塔尼亚胡：未来几天内，我们将全力以赴进军加沙地区。 ...

Core Viewpoint - International crude oil prices have rebounded significantly since hitting new lows on May 5, with Brent crude reaching a high of $66.4 per barrel and WTI crude hitting $63.61 per barrel, marking increases of 13.50% and 15.03% respectively [1][2]. Price Movement - As of May 12, Brent and WTI crude oil prices reached their highest levels since the beginning of May, following a notable rebound from the lows recorded on May 5 [1][2]. - By May 13, prices adjusted slightly, with Brent at $65.01 per barrel and WTI at $62.03 per barrel, indicating a volatile market despite recent gains [2]. Influencing Factors - The rebound in oil prices is attributed to two main factors: a marginal easing of macroeconomic expectations and the U.S. Treasury's addition of entities related to Iranian oil to its sanctions list, raising supply concerns [2]. - Market sentiment has been influenced by the perception that the negative impact of OPEC+'s accelerated production increases has been priced in, alongside expectations of improved macroeconomic conditions [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The Brent crude futures curve has exhibited a "smile" shape, indicating a divergence in near-term and long-term market expectations, with near-term prices supported by low inventories and seasonal demand, while long-term prices are pressured by anticipated increases in OPEC+ production [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the current market is characterized by a "strong reality, weak expectation" scenario, where immediate supply-demand dynamics are favorable, but future expectations are clouded by potential oversupply [3][4]. Future Outlook - Short-term projections indicate that oil prices may face downward pressure as OPEC+ begins to increase production significantly in May, amidst a backdrop of weak demand [4][5]. - The medium to long-term outlook suggests that oil prices will likely remain within a defined range, influenced by OPEC+ production policies and market sentiment, with limited upside potential unless significant positive developments occur in macroeconomic or geopolitical contexts [5].

截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所6月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨0.93美元，收于每桶61.95美元，涨幅 为1.52%；7月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.05美元，收于每桶64.96美元，涨幅为1.64%。 美国普莱斯期货集团高级市场分析师菲尔·弗林表示，中美日内瓦经贸会谈达成的成果让市场摆脱对贸 易战的悲观并拥抱新的图景。中美贸易交易立即提高了对油气的需求预期。 欧佩克+决定在5月和6月加快退出自愿减产的决定和美国与主要贸易伙伴贸易关系紧张刺激国际油价在 近期显著走低，纽约油价在4日跌至4年来低点。 外汇经纪商嘉盛集团资深分析师Jerry Chen表示，美国总统特朗普本周会访问中东，石油、贸易、军 售、以色列等问题有望成为会谈焦点，尤其值得关注对国际油价的影响。 中美两国10日至11日在瑞士日内瓦举行中美经贸高层会谈，在经贸领域达成一系列重要共识，同意大幅 降低双边关税水平。 市场分析师弗拉基米尔·泽尔诺夫（Vladimir Zernov）在当日早些时候表示，由于交易商聚焦于中美经贸 谈判结果，纽约油价测试新的高点。 如果纽约油价升至每桶63美元上方，将会进一步靠近每桶64.42美 元的50日平均水平。 ...

美众议院委员会提议拨款15亿美元补充战略石油储备 金十数据5月12日讯，美国众议院委员会发布了一项预算提案，建议拨款超过15亿美元用于战略石油储 备（SPR）的恢复和维护。这项由众议院能源和商业委员会于周日晚间发布的提案同时取消了此前要求 从储备中出售石油的命令。该提案包括13.2亿美元用于购买石油以补充SPR，这是全球最大的紧急原油 储备。另外还分配了2.18亿美元用于设施维护。美国能源部长赖特3月曾估计，要实现特朗普填满SPR 的目标，将需要200亿美元和数年时间，此举将在油价相对较低的情况下帮助国内能源生产商。SPR目 前持有约3.99亿桶石油，总储存能力约为7.27亿桶。该提案将于周二面临投票表决，提案还废除了国会 授权在2027财年出售700万桶SPR的规定。 ...

沙特阿美高管：2025年石油需求将"稳定且持续增长"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to halt further oil production increases starting in August due to slowing economic activity and weak oil demand [1] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC is anticipated to make its "final" decision to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July [1] - The expectation is that hard data will begin to weaken around late summer [1] Group 2: Oil Demand Projections - Global oil demand growth is projected to slow from 600,000 barrels per day in the first quarter to flat in the second quarter [1] Group 3: Production Outlook Risks - The production outlook remains skewed to the upside, particularly if compliance with production targets does not improve [1]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange will establish a delivery vault in Saudi Arabia, with plans for additional vaults in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Switzerland, allowing global citizens to exchange their RMB for gold [1] - The internationalization of the RMB is accelerating, with the first version of the Bretton Woods system introduced in 2018, allowing oil-exporting countries to exchange RMB for gold at the Shanghai Gold Exchange [3] - The transition from "petrodollar" to "petro-RMB" is underway, with Saudi Arabia beginning to accept RMB for oil purchases, marking a significant shift in currency dynamics [5] Group 2 - The establishment of a delivery vault in Saudi Arabia addresses concerns about the accessibility of gold, enabling immediate exchange of RMB for physical gold without leaving Saudi borders [5] - The internationalization of the RMB is entering a fast track, potentially positioning it as a major global payment currency, especially as the U.S. faces significant debt pressures [7] - The decoupling of Chinese assets from the U.S. dollar is expected to enhance China's pricing power in global markets, reducing reliance on the dollar [7]