Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the United States decreased to 6.77% from the previous value of 6.81% [1] Group 2 - The current mortgage rate of 6.77% indicates a slight decline, which may influence housing market dynamics and borrowing costs for consumers [1]

地方政府化债探析 20250625 分税制改革加剧了财权与事权不匹配的矛盾，加之 GDP 增速在政绩考核中的权 重较高，地方政府通过多元化融资渠道弥补资金缺口，包括土地财政收入和向 融资平台举借的债务。 地方政府化解隐性债务的周期有哪些特点？ 2015 年以来，国内启动了四轮化解地方政府隐性债务周期，每轮周期具有共 性，如中央主导政策设计、优化债务结构、重塑财政纪律、防范系统风险等， 但货币政策力度、导向及具体实施手段有所不同。 第一轮（2015-2018）： 主要置换存量非政府债券形式的存量未清偿完毕的旧有负担，通过清理甄别处 置思路完成目标，到 2018 年底平均利率比 14 年底降低约 6.5 个百分点。 第 二轮（2019-2021）：聚焦建制区县试点及扩围，通过发行置换或再融资工具 进行化解，如贵州、湖南等地发行 1,500 多亿用于化解。 第三轮（2021- 2022）：进一步收缩范围至北上广深等发达区域，以特殊再融资专项工具全面 清理存量隐性负担。 第四轮（2023-2024）：推出一揽子方案建立长效机制， 与高质量发展相适应，加快落地特殊再融资工具，总体呈现出短期风险缓释与 长期制度重构升级特 ...

全美房地产经纪人协会（NAR）首席经济学家劳伦斯·云：将5月的上涨归因于美国劳动力市场的韧性， 工资涨幅超过了房价上涨。 然而，"抵押贷款利率波动是购房决策的主要驱动因素，对住房负担能力的影响大于工资增长"。 ...

报告导读： ① 投资链： 6 月以来铜、铝、铅、锡、白银价格上升。②消费链：社消额累 计同比增速抬升，汽车销量当月同比增速上升。③出口链：对美国、日本、东盟出口金额 当月同比增速下降，对欧盟出口金额当月同比增速上升。④价格链： 6 月油价上升、猪价 有所下降 。 扫码关注 星标不迷路 国泰海通证券研究所官方公众号 海量研报 | 热门活动 | 视听 内容 价格链： 6 月油价上升、猪价有所下降。 WTI ： 2025 年 6 月 24 日上升至 64.37 美元 / 桶。 2025 年 6 月秦皇岛煤价下降。 PVC ： 2025 年 6 月 20 日现货价格下降为 4680 元 / 吨。 MDI ：： 2025 年 6 月 20 日纯 MDI 价格下降至 17100 元 / 吨，聚合 MDI 价格下降至 16200 元 / 吨。 22025 年 6 月棉花价格上升，白砂糖价格下降；猪肉价格 2025 年 6 月 11 日下降至 14.45 元 / 公斤；国产尿素 2025 年 5 月价格较 2025 年 4 月下降。 2025 年 5 月新增信贷增加至 6200 亿元； 2025 年 4 月寿 险保费收入累计 ...

格林大华期货中国宏观经济半年报 从业资格：F0276812 2025年6月26日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 数据来源：wind，格林大华 1-5月份，设备工器具购置投资同比增长17.3% "两新"工作加力扩围提质带动效果持续显现，设备购置投资快速增长。1-5月份，设备工器具购置投资同比增 长17.3%，增速比全部投资高13.6个百分点；对全部投资增长的贡献率为63.6%，拉动全部投资增长2.3个百分点。 （2024年，设备工器具购置投资增长15.7%，2023年是6.6%）。6月26日国家发改委政策研究室副主任李超在发布 会上表示，抓紧推出加力实施设备更新贷款贴息政策，进一步降低经营主体设备更新融资成本。 数据来源：wind，格林大华 1-5月份，全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降2.9%，1-4月同比下降2.8% 1-5月份，全国固定资产投资同比增长3.7%，市场预期4.0%，1-4月份为4.0% 1-5月份，全国固定资产投资同比增长3.7%，市场预 ...

Economic Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes confidence and capability in promoting sustained and healthy domestic economic development despite complex external challenges [2] - The NDRC has implemented proactive macro policies to stabilize employment and promote high-quality development, resulting in overall stable economic operation [2] Employment Support Initiatives - The NDRC has launched the "Action Plan" to enhance employment and income for key groups through the "work-for-relief" policy, with a focus on increasing support for vulnerable populations [2][3] - A total of 16 billion yuan has been allocated for "work-for-relief" projects, expected to create job opportunities for 380,000 individuals [3] Policy Implementation and Funding - The NDRC plans to issue the third batch of funds for the "old-for-new" consumption policy in July, with a total support of 300 billion yuan for consumer goods [4][5] - The first two batches of funding for equipment updates have already allocated approximately 173 billion yuan, supporting around 7,500 projects across 16 sectors [4] Market Impact - The "old-for-new" policy has led to significant sales growth in related products, with sales exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan this year [5] - The NDRC aims to enhance the effectiveness of the "two new" policies by improving project management and ensuring timely funding distribution [5]

Core Viewpoint - The "Two New" policy is effectively boosting investment, consumption, and transformation in China, with significant sales growth in home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment, leading to over 1.4 trillion yuan in sales from trade-in programs this year [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation and Financial Support - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to issue the third batch of funding for consumer goods trade-in programs in July, ensuring a structured and balanced approach to fund allocation throughout the year [3][6] - A total of 300 billion yuan in long-term special government bonds will be allocated to support consumer goods trade-in initiatives, with 162 billion yuan already distributed in the first two batches [3][6] - The NDRC aims to enhance project management and financial oversight for equipment upgrades, with 200 billion yuan allocated for equipment updates this year [6] Group 2: Consumer Impact and Sales Data - As of May 31, 2025, the trade-in program has generated 1.1 trillion yuan in sales across five major categories, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued directly to consumers [5] - The program has seen significant participation, with 4.12 million applications for vehicle trade-ins and millions of purchases in home appliances and digital products [5] Group 3: Regional and Sectoral Developments - The Guangdong provincial government has confirmed that it will not prematurely end the trade-in policy, addressing concerns about temporary suspensions in certain cities due to system upgrades [5] - Recent policies from various departments emphasize financial support for key consumption areas, including trade-in programs for old vehicles and appliances, aiming to enhance consumer spending [7][8] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The 300 billion yuan in trade-in subsidies is projected to represent approximately 0.5% of the total disposable income and 0.7% of the total retail sales of consumer goods in 2024, potentially boosting retail sales growth by about 1 percentage point this year [8]

6月26日，国家发展改革委召开6月份新闻发布会。国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任、新闻发言人李超 表示，有信心、有能力推动经济持续健康发展。她还表示， 将抓紧推出加力实施设备更新贷款贴息政 策，将在7月下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资金 。 谈及"苏超"热度攀升，李超表示，这反映出群众对多元化和群众性的体育赛事、运动健身热情高、需求 大，也展现出我国的体育赛事和文化旅游等相关产业发展蕴含着巨大的潜力。 消费品以旧换新方面，按照既定工作安排，将在7月下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资金；同时将协调 有关方面，坚持更加注重"时序性"和"均衡性"的原则，分领域制定落实到每月、每周的"国补"资金使用 计划，保障消费品以旧换新政策全年有序实施。与此同时，及时跟踪评估各领域工作进展，不断完善实 施机制，更好提升"两新"政策效能。 有信心、有能力推动经济持续健康发展 李超表示，当前，外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性有所增加，全球经贸稳定增长面临挑战，这些 都会影响我国经济平稳运行。但更要看到，近期世界银行、经合组织（OECD）分别将全球经济增长预 测下调0.4个百分点和0.2个百分点，而对中国经济增长预测维持总体稳定，德意志银行 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the strengthening of credit support for private enterprises and the agricultural sector through a new implementation plan by the National Financial Supervision Administration and the People's Bank of China [1] - The plan includes enhancing credit supply in the "three rural" areas, focusing on financial services for key agricultural sectors, and supporting the construction of a modern rural industrial system [1] - It proposes to explore the expansion of rural property as collateral and increase credit loan issuance to farmers and new agricultural operators [1] Group 2 - The initiative aims to conduct pre-loan investigations for small farmers through non-site methods while ensuring risk control [1] - There is a focus on strengthening credit support for private enterprises, including the collection of enterprise credit information and the provision of specialized credit services [1] - The plan promotes the "credit ease loan" model and aims to protect the financial rights of private enterprises, including their rights to fair transactions, informed services, autonomous choices, and information security [1]

当地时间周三(6月25日)，美国联邦住房金融署(FHFA)命令住房贷款机构，考虑将加密货币作为住宅 抵押贷款风险评估的资产。该机构负责监管房利美和房地美这两家美国住房抵押贷款巨头。分析人 士表示，此举可能为借款人使用加密货币资产申请住房贷款敞开大门。 FHFA署长William Pulte当天在社交媒体上发文写道，"经过深入研究，并遵循特朗普总统将 美国打造成'加密货币之都'的愿景，今天我下令房利美和房地美着手准备，将加密货币列为抵 押贷款申请的认定资产。" 这一指令标志着美国政府支持企业在评估抵押贷款资质的资产审核标准上，可能迎来重大转 变，同时也与特朗普政府推动加密货币在美国普及的既定目标一脉相承。 FHFA具有监管房利美和房地美的权责，这两家机构自2008年次贷危机期间遭受重大损失后， 一直处于美国政府的控制之下，它们担保了全美超过一半的抵押贷款。 面对行业逆风，Pulte正寻求为购房者开拓更可行的借贷渠道，而加密货币也由此成为了其潜 在的突破口。 在周三签署的一份指令中，Pulte表示，考虑借款人的其他资产——如加密货币，或将使房利 美和房地美能够更为全面地评估借款人的财务状况，并可以"为信誉良好的借 ...