在地缘政治领域，尽管相关冲突地区各方已开启谈判进程，但由于各方在核心利益诉求和谈判立场上存在显著分歧，谈判前景尚不明朗。不过，谈判的启动 本身释放出通过对话解决争端的积极信号，一定程度上缓解了地缘政治紧张局势，这也对黄金的避险需求产生了抑制作用。 尽管消息面呈现出复杂多变的态势，但截至本交易周尾，黄金收盘价仍维持在3200美元/盎司上方。基于此部分市场参与者依然对黄金价格抱有乐观预期， 认为金价有望向3500美元/盎司靠拢，甚至突破这一关键价位。然而，正如秦氏金升此前分析所述，黄金价格前期的冲高主要是受到多重利好消息刺激，引 发市场集中性买盘推动。如今，随着避险情绪逐步退潮，金价出现回调属于市场的正常价值回归过程。 一、消息面分析 从宏观经济消息面维度来看，近期国际贸易局势的缓和显著削弱了黄金作为避险资产的属性。贸易双方通过积极磋商达成阶段性共识，使得全球投资者风险 偏好有所回升，黄金避险买盘随之减少。与此同时，美联储官员多次强调在货币政策调整上保持谨慎态度，明确表示短期内不急于降息，这些因素共同对黄 金价格形成了有力压制。 在日线级别上，黄金价格自3500美元/盎司高点开启的ABC三浪下跌趋势特征十分明显。 ...

烧碱：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 PVC：偏弱震荡 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年5月18日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 烧碱：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 ◆ 主要观点： Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 ◆ 受几内亚铝土矿供应扰动影响，氧化铝大幅上涨，带动烧碱期货走势偏强。主要原因在于氧化铝和烧碱价格相关 性比较高，部分资金共同配置两者，同时氧化铝利润扩张，利多烧碱。但从基本面角度，烧碱暂时缺乏持续上涨 的驱动。 ◆ 下游的囤货持续性决定了烧碱反弹的持续性。本周魏桥烧碱库存持续下滑，导致其上调采购价，不过厂家并未跟 随涨价，魏桥与山东市场价价差收敛，利空烧碱。氧化铝行业 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The gold market experienced a gap down on Monday and continued to decline, showing alternating bearish and bullish patterns, ultimately closing the week with a bearish candle featuring a long lower shadow [1] - U.S. April CPI data showed a mild performance, leading to a decrease in inflation expectations and a stronger dollar, which pressured gold prices. The April PPI unexpectedly fell by 0.5%, while retail sales growth dropped significantly from 1.7% in March to 0.1%, indicating increased economic slowdown pressures [2] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the stalemate in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and uncertainties surrounding U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, have heightened demand for gold as a safe haven [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 11 basis points to 4.435%, increasing market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a 75.4% probability for a September cut, providing some support for gold prices [2] - The recent easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China, with mutual tariff cancellations, has temporarily alleviated trade friction, impacting market sentiment [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged challenges facing the U.S. economy and the Fed, indicating potential volatility in future inflation. Although he did not elaborate on rate cut expectations, the recent CPI data has intensified pressure on the Fed to lower rates [5] - Wall Street's major banks have postponed their expectations for a Fed rate cut due to easing trade tensions, complicating the impact on gold prices [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a corrective phase, having encountered strong resistance at the 3500 level. The recent price action suggests that gold may have entered a fourth wave adjustment structure [9] - A breakdown below the 3202 support level confirmed the start of a C-wave decline, with a potential short-term rebound observed near the 3120 level. The focus will be on whether gold can stabilize above 3120 to initiate a rebound [11][12]

研究所 底部区间，震荡偏强 ——国信期货有色（镍）周报 2 基本面分析 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 1.1 行情回顾——内外盘主力价格合约走势 研究所 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 2020/12/31 2021/02/28 2021/04/30 2021/06/30 2021/08/31 2021/10/31 2021/12/31 2022/02/28 2022/04/30 2022/06/30 2022/08/31 2022/10/31 2022/12/31 2023/02/28 2023/04/30 2023/06/30 2023/08/31 2023/10/31 2023/12/31 2024/02/29 2024/04/30 2024/06/30 2024/08/31 2024/10/31 2024/12/31 2025/02/28 2025/04/30 镍期货收盘价(主力合约)(单位：元/吨) 2025年05月18日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 ...

证券代码：002254 证券简称：泰和新材 泰和新材集团股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-044 投资者关系活动 类别 √特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 □现场参观 □其他 参与单位名称及 人员姓名 易方达基金 杨协和 时间 2025 年 5 月 16 日 地点 公司会议室 上市公司接待人 员 董事会秘书董旭海、董事会办公室人员 投资者关系活动 主要内容介绍 投资者：现在整体来说间位芳纶的格局怎么样？ 答：还好。去年有两家新进入的，对我们基本没影响。 投资者：目前间位的价格是多少？ 答：均价要看产品结构。 投资者：有很大的下滑吗？ 答：同比没有很大的变化。 投资者：今年间位的出货量？ 答：计划两位数增长。 投资者：间位还是一万六的产能？ 答：对。 投资者：下游防护服更新的需求？ 答：没有太明显的增长。 投资者：政策是建议？ 投资者关系活动记录表 | 投资者：供给情况？ | | --- | | 答：比需求略多。 | | 投资者：对位也是一万六？ | | 答：对。 | | 投资者：对位竞争对手的产能有扩？ | | 答：有一些。 | | 投资者：对位 ...

总体而言，黄金市场的多空博弈本质是短期交易逻辑与长期价值逻辑的角力。当前回调更多是技术性修正而非趋势逆转，投资者需区分"价格波动"与"价值 重估"的差异，在美元霸权松动、全球政经格局重构的背景下，重视黄金在资产组合中对冲通胀与风险的价值。 近期黄金价格经历了显著的调整，中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展是重要原因之一。会谈达成大幅削减加征关税等共识，缓解了市场对全球经济衰退的担 忧，风险资产吸引力回升，黄金避险需求骤降，资金从黄金市场流向股市等风险资产。同时，美联储5月议息会议维持利率不变，强调通胀粘性及经济韧 性，市场对年内降息预期下调，美元指数一度逼近100关口，对黄金形成压制。此外，前期金价累计涨幅大，技术指标进入超买区域，存在获利盘回吐需 求，5月12日金价单日跌幅达2.73%，触发多头平仓潮。 不过，黄金价格仍有长期支撑逻辑。首先，全球央行购金趋势持续，2025年一季度全球央行黄金储备增加244吨，连续第16年净购金，中国、印度等新兴市 场央行购金行为显著，反映出美元信用体系面临挑战，黄金货币属性被重新定价。其次，尽管短期地缘风险缓和，但美国债务上限危机、全球通胀反复、股 市波动加剧等隐患仍在，黄金作为 ...

Market Overview - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 national ports is 141.66 million tons, a decrease of 726,200 tons month-on-month [1] - The average daily dispatch volume is 3.24 million tons, an increase of 86,800 tons [1] - The number of vessels in port is 83, an increase of 4 [1] Trading Activity - On May 15, the total iron ore transaction at major national ports was 1.007 million tons, a decrease of 18.33% month-on-month [2] - The forward spot transaction was 1.56 million tons on the same day [2] - Shipping costs from Western Australia to China are $7.38 per ton, an increase of $0.03 per ton; from Brazil to China, the cost is $18.3 per ton, an increase of $0.18 per ton [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - According to Everbright Futures, global shipping volume has slightly decreased, with Australian port repairs reducing, leading to a slight recovery in shipping volume, while Brazilian shipping volume has significantly decreased [3] - The demand side shows one new blast furnace resuming production and four undergoing maintenance, resulting in a decrease in pig iron production by 8,700 tons to 2.4477 million tons [3] - Current iron ore inventory at 47 ports is 147.47 million tons, a decrease of 177,200 tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 21,800 tons to 8.961 million tons [3] Future Outlook - According to Shenyin Wanguo Futures, the raw material supply is expected to remain weak, but there is still room for pig iron production to increase, supported by steel mill profits and strong resumption momentum [4] - Recent global iron ore shipments have decreased, mainly due to disruptions in Australian shipments, with rapid inventory depletion at ports [4] - Mid-term supply-demand imbalance pressure is significant, with expected growth in iron ore shipments in the second half of the year, while short-term lacks clear driving forces [4]

本周硅片价格继续下跌，其中 N 型 G10L 单晶硅片 (182*183.75mm/130 μ m) 成交均价在 0.95 元 / 片，周环比跌幅 5.94% ； N 型 G12R 单晶硅片 (182*210mm/130 μ m) 成交均价在 1.10 元 / 片，周环比 跌幅 1.79% ； N 型 G12 单晶硅片 (210*210 mm/130 μ m) 成交均价在 1.30 元 / 片，周环比跌幅 3.70% 。 本周上下游成交清淡，市场情绪较为消极，硅片价格继续下滑。 本周硅片价格继续下行的原因仍然是终端需求疲软，叠加供应宽松，库存偏大，市场看跌后市。虽 然目前头部企业挺价出货，但是部分二三线企业受现金流需要以及其产品质量影响，低价出货，下游市 场在低价货源以及终端需求不振情况下，对高价硅片抵制心态浓厚，市场博弈下，硅片价格延续跌势。 另外，由于 P 型硅片属于定制产品，本周暂无大规模成交。据统计，本周行业整体开工率小幅降低至 在 55% 左右，两家一线企业开工率在 55% 和 56% ，一体化企业开工率在 58%-80% 之间，其余企业开 工在 55%-80% 之间。最新排产计划显示， 5 月硅片 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - HSBC reported that the UK economy grew by 0.7% in Q1, exceeding expectations, but may face a downturn due to global uncertainties [3] - The growth was supported by strong investment driven by one-off expenditures, but potential declines in trade are anticipated in Q2 [3] - Rising utility costs and increases in wage taxes and minimum wage are expected to impact corporate labor costs [3] Group 2: Currency and Market Reactions - The GBP's reaction to improved UK economic growth data has been muted, indicating cautious interpretation by investors [3] - Despite a 0.7% growth in Q1 following a 0.1% increase in the previous quarter, the growth was driven by unstable corporate investment factors [3] - The Bank of England is likely to interpret the economic slowdown risks as a reason to proceed with gradual interest rate cuts [3] Group 3: Gold Futures Analysis - Gold futures prices have ended a six-day decline, currently reported at 752.74 CNY per gram, with a 1.01% increase [4] - The highest price reached today was 759.20 CNY per gram, while the lowest was 746.44 CNY per gram [4] - Resistance levels for gold are identified between 819-829 CNY, with support levels at 712-722 CNY [4]

供应：本周嘉通300万吨恢复，山东威联250万吨装置提负，百宏250周内PTA负荷波动，至周四PTA负 荷提升至76.9%（+4.4%）。 需求：本周一套长丝装置、一套瓶片装置开启，聚酯综合负荷继续提升至95.3%附近（+1.1%）。本周 江浙终端开工率继续提升，加弹、织造、印染负荷分别为80%（+3%）、68%（+3%）、77% （+4%）。中美会谈释放利好，坯布销售氛围提升明显，除美订单外，其他出口国和内销的采购也有所 释放，5月份订单基本商谈结束，6月订单增加中；坯布工厂出库量提升，坯布综合库存下降。终端生产 和原料采购积极性也有所上升，周初涤丝下游工厂集中追加原料备货量，目前下游原料备货较少在15- 20天，备货较多在1-2个月。 【行情展望】 因短期PTA装置检修集中且聚酯维持高开工，PTA供需延续偏紧格局。但5月下PTA装置陆续重启，而后 期PTA检修计划尚未明确，且随着原料端大涨，下游聚酯产品亏损扩大，且下游低位备货后追高谨慎， 涤丝产销转弱，部分聚酯工厂有减产意向，PTA供需存转弱预期，继续上涨乏力。策略上，TA09短期 存回调压力，但供需驱动仍偏强，高位震荡对待；TA9-1正套逢高离场，关注 ...