Federal Reserve Policy & Interest Rates - The market is debating whether the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by 25 basis points [5][6] - The current Fed funds rate is floating around 425 to 450 basis points, approximately 43% [2] - Some believe the Fed is too focused on past data and risks being late in responding to economic changes [4][6][10] - Cutting rates by 75 basis points occurred last year [5] Inflation & Economic Factors - Housing costs, a significant component of CPI and PPI, are impacted by the Fed's balance sheet reduction of $35 billion [3] - Tariffs' full effect on inflation is still uncertain [2][6] - The speaker believes inflation is moderating and not out of control [5][6] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) at 31% is not a major concern [9] Bond Market & Treasury Yields - The 2-year Treasury note yield is around 4% [2] - The 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields are at the same level as in autumn 2022 [13] - The bond market and the Federal Reserve may not be aligned in their expectations [12]

On this Fed day, no change in interest rates. The Fed just announcing a moment ago it's leaving its benchmark rate unchanged. And not a huge surprise if you've been with us here on Bloomberg, I'm glad to say.We're joined now by Senator Elizabeth Warren, the Democrat from Massachusetts, with us live from Capitol Hill. And it's great to see you, Senator. Welcome back to Bloomberg.You've been calling for cuts here on Bloomberg for months, much like President Trump has. In fact, just today, he called on Jay Pow ...

Here's a question some Fed-watchers, including the President of the United States, have asked lately: Why won't the Fed cut interest rates already? Fed Chair Jerome Powell has answers. https://t.co/qFPv4wNBKa ...

For more on the Fed, let's bring in Jeffrey's chief market strategist, David Zervos, and former Richmond Fed President, Jeffrey Lacker. Guys, welcome. Uh, Jeffrey, so uh, the Fed seems to be listening to these calls for a meaningful amount of inflation perhaps in the back half of the year.What's the meaningful data that could counter that and still lead to a cut. Is it employment related. No, I don't think so.Um, I mean, if employment fell out of bed, of course, they'd react, but it looks like the employmen ...

aside, let's talk about expectations because again, no cut right now. But we knew that not one person thought there was going to be a cut today. But when I'm looking at the end of this year into next year, the expectations, the dot plots are all over the place.Where do you and RBC fall. >> Well, we expect the fed to cut later this year, but look at the balance of shifts in these forecasts. We're going from stagflation light to stagflation moderate.And this is going to be the story for the US economy. Inflat ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump says "am I allowed to appoint myself head of the Fed?""I'd do a much better job than Powell." https://t.co/i6SXIGjzPv ...

Jobless claims and housing uh starts data going to hit the wires right now in about two seconds. Rick Santelli standing by at this in CM in Chicago. Hey Rick.Hi. Good morning Joe. Yes.Housing starts for the month of May expected 1,350,000 seasonally adjusted annualized units. Comes in light, extremely light. 1,256,000.That is definitely well below what we are expecting. And that would be the lightest going back well quite a ways. We're going back to wow 1256. We're going all the way back to May of 2020. May ...

Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve (Fed) aims to promote maximum employment and stable prices, managing inflation without causing economic recession [1] - The Fed influences the economy by setting the federal funds rate, impacting short-term borrowing costs for banks, which then affects consumer and business loans [1] - Raising interest rates can slow down economic expansion by making borrowing more expensive, potentially leading to higher unemployment and recession [1] - The market anticipates Fed actions, with stock prices reacting immediately to signals about future rate hikes or cuts, reflecting collective views about the economy 6 to 9 months out [2] - The stock market tends to perform well when the Fed is perceived as supportive, meaning rate hikes are off the table and rate cuts are anticipated [3] Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies - The stock market acts as a forecasting machine, anticipating future economic conditions and reacting swiftly to new data that alters expectations [2] - During Fed tightening cycles, bad economic news can be good news for the stock market, as it increases the likelihood of the Fed easing up [2] - Certain sectors, such as home builders and automakers, are economically sensitive and can signal an upcoming economic slowdown [6] - Investors should monitor indicators like paper stocks and copper prices to gauge the economy's temperature and make informed investment decisions [6][7] Historical Crashes and Fed's Role - Historical market crashes, such as those in 1987, 1998, 2000, and 2008, highlight the Fed's potential impact on exacerbating or mitigating economic crises [5][6] - The Fed's actions, whether perceived as timely or tone-deaf, can significantly influence market stability and investor confidence [6]

Market Crashes and Fed Influence - Market crashes, potentially exacerbated by the Fed's actions, are inevitable [1] - The report references past sell recommendations in 1997, 1998, 2000, and 2008, highlighting the importance of being prepared for market downturns [2] Historical Market Analysis - The 1987 crash saw the market lose nearly 40% of its value in a few weeks [4] - Prior to the 1987 crash, the Dow was trading at 29 times earnings, considered extremely expensive [3] - Japanese investment drove up valuations to unsustainable levels in the 1980s [3] Portfolio Insurance and Market Impact - Portfolio insurance, intended to limit losses, amplified the 1987 crash due to the immaturity of S&P futures [5] - The failure of portfolio insurance triggered a flood of sell orders, wiping out bids on the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ [5]

Federal Reserve & Market Impact - The market is a forecasting machine, anticipating future economic conditions and reacting immediately to new data that changes the perception of the future [3][4][5] - Federal Reserve policy, particularly interest rate decisions, significantly impacts the stock market, with the market reacting rapidly to perceived changes [2][14] - When the Federal Reserve is perceived as supportive (rate cuts on the table), the stock market tends to perform well, and vice versa [12][13] - The stock market's performance is heavily influenced by anticipation of the Federal Reserve's actions, not necessarily the present economic conditions [4][9][11] Investment Strategy & Risk - Macro forces, such as Federal Reserve policy and trade policy, can override individual company fundamentals [2] - High-growth stocks are particularly vulnerable to Federal Reserve rate hikes [8] - Market declines can occur rapidly when investors anticipate economic slowdowns, leading to sudden bear markets [6][16]