Trade and Tariffs - The market is showing fatigue towards tariff headlines, anticipating room for negotiation in trade talks [2] - The market expects potential trade deals, preferring them over high tariffs, leading to current calmness [3] - Average tariff levels are expected to be slightly higher, but not reaching the high levels seen in early April [5] - Uncertainty remains regarding how much tariffs will be passed on to corporations versus absorbed by consumers, impacting consumer spending patterns [10] Monetary Policy and Fiscal Outlook - The Federal Reserve's September decision will heavily rely on the jobs report [7][8] - Tariffs are seen as a revenue source to fund additional spending, potentially leading the US Treasury to issue more short-term debt to keep funding costs down [13] - Aggressive rate cuts by the Fed could lead to higher back-end yields, advocating for curve steepness [19] - The market is closely watching the private sector's willingness to buy government bonds, as they are now the primary price setters [14][15] UK Gilts Market - Concerns persist regarding the UK's fiscal situation and funding, especially with slowing growth [20] - Stability and the Bank of England's proactive rate cuts could make gilts attractive [22]

Interest Rate Policy - Fed watchers suggest that Powell's successor is unlikely to deliver interest rate cuts as quickly as Trump desires [1]

Malaysia lowered its benchmark interest rate for the first time in five years, acting after US President Donald Trump increased a threatened tariff on the Southeast Asian country to 25% https://t.co/qSPuj21zG8 ...

Tariff concerns will likely weigh on Malaysia’s currency and economy in the near term, according to analysts, after the country’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time in five years. https://t.co/iK7LTQX9fs ...

What To Expect From The Fed’s July Interest Rate Decision https://t.co/rjSuGlRtoy https://t.co/rjSuGlRtoy ...

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a 75.1% chance of the US Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates in September, which may be a key reason for the recent bullish trend in global stock markets [2][24]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The World Bank has revised its global economic growth forecast for this year down to 2.3%, from an earlier prediction of 2.8%, indicating that the period from 2020 to 2027 may see the lowest economic growth since 1960 [2][25]. - The average price of commodities is expected to decline by 10% year-on-year this year and by another 6% next year due to low economic growth and trade policies [2][25]. Group 2: Precious Metals Market - Recent CFTC data shows a decrease in net long positions for gold and silver, while platinum and palladium have seen increases in long positions [3][7]. - Gold prices have accumulated a 27.2% increase year-to-date, while silver prices have risen by 24.3% [7][11]. - The gold/silver ratio has shown a downward trend, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [21]. Group 3: Fund Positioning - Managed positions in gold futures have decreased by 4.5%, while silver futures have seen an 8.7% drop in long positions [3][7]. - The net long position in palladium has increased, but it remains in a historically high net short position [8][11]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The relationship between economic indicators and commodity prices suggests that if the US enters a recession, it may lead to a decline in commodity prices, including gold [25][26]. - The current geopolitical climate and trade tensions are influencing market dynamics, with potential implications for commodity prices [29][30]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - The company suggests that in the current market environment, strategies such as shorting base metals, holding cash, and maintaining positions in gold and silver may be prudent [28][30]. - The focus on ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) factors is impacting investment decisions in the mining sector, leading to a lag in mining stocks compared to commodity prices [20].

Group 1 - Carvana is favored for long-term investment, with potential for a pullback to buy more shares at a discount [1][3] - The stock has shown strong performance recently, approaching its 2021 peak, and reached a new 52-week high before closing down slightly [1][2] - The company's recent earnings report exceeded Wall Street expectations, and management has set new long-term financial targets [2] Group 2 - Carvana's sales methodology is convenient, allowing customers to buy, sell, finance, and trade cars online, which positions the company to capture more market share in a fragmented auto sales space [2] - The stock is seen favorably by investors anticipating interest rate cuts, which would make financing easier [2] - Carvana's business model is considered best-in-class, with management on track for strong growth and rising profitability [3]

Where are we going on terror policy. Let me rephrase that. Not necessarily where we're going, because I don't know if anyone knows where we're going, but how do you think the market is digesting all of these policy shifts, the ups and downs, and at least right now, a lot of things that Trump is threatening haven't actually been implemented.Right. I think, first of all, your introduction was perfect twists and turns. And I think what's happened is the market has gotten so accustomed to twists and turns and t ...

Uruguay’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 9% and signaled it might further lower borrowing costs if inflation converges with the target. https://t.co/46l9OkYUfX ...

streaming. Go to CNBC. com plus now.>> Welcome back. Tech stocks driving the S&P 500 today to a new intraday high yet again. Our next guest says to stick with those winners in the second half of the year.Joining us now at post nine is Michael Pappas of Advisors at Rockefeller. Welcome back. Great.So you still want to ride this this winning trade. Why so. Look, I just think.>> Again technology is changing everything that we have. The metrics have actually changed in the way we evaluate jobs. I think this is ...