CFC商品策略研究 . 以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者CFC油脂油料研究 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是一次历险，也许是一次漂流，它并不把你带 到任何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 文 | 石丽红 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 24/25产季，国内花生现货价格仅在国庆后出现一轮上涨行情，随后长期进入僵持阶段。自新季花生上市至今，主流产区通货米价格在3.95- 4.25元/斤范围内波动，尤其是年后基本围绕4.1元/斤关口小范围起伏。市场目前对僵持局面存在几点疑惑：供需为何长期僵持？产区是否还存 在"抛压"？当前价格是否对新季播种积极性有影响？为此我们走入东北产区，开展实地调研，总结成果如下： 供需为何长期僵持：需求走弱，但单产不达预期导致成本抬升 24/25年度，国内需求市场整体疲软，尤其是食品米走货持续偏慢。据产业反馈，2025年春节后80天内兴城红崖子集散地累计走货数量 下降20%左右，黑山、阜新、昌图均有下滑。需求疲弱导致各渠道环节 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing analysis of gold prices, indicating a potential downward trend and questioning whether there will be a reversal opportunity tonight [1]. Group 1 - Gold prices are experiencing a continuous decline, prompting traders to consider whether to maintain a bearish outlook or adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach [1].

Core Viewpoint - The global panel market in Q1 2025 experienced complex and dynamic price trends influenced by multiple factors, with television panels showing initial strength but weakening by the end of the quarter, while monitor panels saw a price increase towards the end of the quarter, and notebook panels remained stable throughout [1][19]. Television Panel Price Trends - In January 2025, television panel prices rose due to strong demand driven by China's "trade-in" policy, particularly for large-sized panels, with price increases of $1 for 32-inch and 43-inch panels, $1 for 55-inch, $2 for 65-inch, $3 for 75-inch, and $4 for 85-inch panels [2][3]. - The demand for large-sized panels caused a squeeze on the production capacity of smaller-sized panels, indirectly pushing up their prices [3]. - By March, the market began to cool, with North American demand weakening post-Super Bowl promotions and Chinese policy effects diminishing, leading to a cautious outlook from brand clients due to high inventory levels [3][10]. Monitor Panel Price Trends - Monitor panel prices remained stable in January, with demand holding steady compared to Q4 2024, but began to rise in March as television panel price increases created opportunities for monitor panels [4][6]. - In February, despite being a traditional off-season, monitor panel demand remained strong, leading to a slight price increase of $0 to $0.1 for Open Cell types, while module prices stayed flat [6]. - March marked a turning point with comprehensive price increases for monitor panels, although brand clients remained cautious about future demand and international trade relations [6][10]. Notebook Panel Price Trends - Notebook panel prices remained stable throughout Q1 2025, with no significant changes observed [7][9]. - Despite some brands increasing inventory levels due to international trade issues, most panel manufacturers and brand clients adopted a cautious approach, focusing on maintaining market share and customer relationships [9][10]. Overall Market Dynamics - The price fluctuations in the panel market were influenced by demand-side drivers and constraints, with initial boosts from policies like "trade-in" in China, but diminishing effects over time [10]. - Supply-side strategies and unexpected events, such as the earthquake in Taiwan affecting production, also played a role in market dynamics [10]. - External uncertainties, particularly international trade relations, significantly impacted brand clients' inventory strategies and supply chain management [10][19]. Company Performance - In Q1 2025, several panel companies reported strong earnings, with notable revenue growth from major players like Samsung Display, BOE, and TCL Huaxing, while LG Display, AU Optronics, and others successfully turned losses into profits [11][12][14]. - TCL Huaxing's acquisition of LG Display's Guangzhou LCD line is expected to enhance its market position further [14]. - The performance of leading companies indicates strong resilience and growth potential in a competitive market, despite ongoing challenges faced by some firms [14][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resistance faced by gold prices during the European trading session and raises questions about the potential for new lows within the day [1] Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a rebound but faced obstacles in maintaining upward momentum during the European trading hours [1] - The article suggests that there is uncertainty regarding whether gold can reach new lows in the current trading day [1]

期货热点追踪 分析师预测，未来几周CBOT大豆期货将陷入区间震荡，玉米和小麦价格可能下滑，关键支撑和阻力分 别位于…… 相关链接 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 15 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.9 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.6-15.3 元/ 公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.4-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；广东 15.1- 15.6 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育强势进场，部分养殖户预计节后出 栏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升，二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增 加。需求端，天气转热，节后猪肉消费转淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏 损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥滚动进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧， 猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁 母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，5-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增 加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强 需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库 以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去 化，但行业有利润，去化幅度有限，处于均衡区间上限，四季度供应压力仍 大，远 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 5 月 15 日 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：李金（甲醇） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 油） 021-60635738 l ...

5月14日晚， 现货黄金向下跌破3180美元/盎司， 创4月15日以来的新低。 值得注意的是，与5月11日相比较，周生生足金饰品标价已下跌29元/克，周大福足金饰品标价下跌30元/克。 据媒体报道，有人买了一个手镯，近半个月价值缩水2000多元。 未来黄金将回涨还是继续下跌？ 中国银行研究院主管王有鑫表示， 短期内，黄金价格可能延续震荡调整格局。一方面，贸易缓和利好仍在持续消化，市场风险偏好维持在较高水平，资 金对风险资产的偏好增强；另一方面，技术上金价在下跌过程中可能会遇到一些阻力位和支撑位，引发市场的多空博弈，导致价格波动。 | 例4月15日以木があ1は。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | < w | 伦敦会现 | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | 3176.547 | 昨结 3250.100 | 开盘 3249.788 | | | -73.553 -2.26% | 总量(kg) 0.00 | 现手 | 0 | | 最高价 3257.080 | 特 仓 0 | 外 盘 0.000 | | | 最低价 3175.135 | 增 仓 O | 内 ...

从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 工业硅 工业硅：短期过剩难改但下游有企稳迹象，硅价底部渐进 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观政策、头部企业生产情况、光伏行业政策。 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 重要声明： 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 整理 逻辑：昨日工业硅现货价格波动不大，出厂价格底部徘徊，价格博弈当中。 目前华东通氧 553#硅在 8900-9200 元/吨，华东 421#硅在 9800-10100 元/吨。 期货端：昨日工业硅期货主力合约 si2506 收盘价为 8490，+2.72%，单日减仓 15774 手，当前持仓为 14.65 万手，成交额为 160.36 亿元。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japanese rubber futures have ended a 10-day rally, indicating that the improved supply outlook from Thailand is finally reflecting in the prices [1] Group 1 - The recent price adjustments in Japanese rubber futures suggest a shift in market dynamics due to enhanced supply conditions from Thailand [1] - The end of the 10-day price increase may signal a stabilization in the rubber market as supply concerns ease [1]