Denmark’s central bank wants local lenders to tap more of its one-week loans and provide added cash to clients to help reduce short-term interest rates https://t.co/7xtIBk26mS ...

Welcome back. President Trump is ramping up his pressure campaign on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, urging him to cut interest rates by a lot. The president's latest demand came in a handwritten letter held up by White House press secretary Caroline Levit at a press briefing yesterday.You see her there. Trump penned a message to Powell in Sharpie on a list of world central bank rates, writing in part, quote, "Jerome, you are as usual too late. You have cost the USA a fortune." The president has repeat ...

RT Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion)@skgreen @MaryEllenKlas @DavidMDrucker “People get upset because the national debt is up to $37 trillion, and the bond markets are jittery and interest rates are high,” says @DavidMDrucker. But nobody wants to do anything about entitlements.Tune in for more 🎥https://t.co/X7WR4OX8dP ...

Market Overview & Investment Strategy - The S&P 500 closed at a record high to finish the first half, with the Arc Innovation ETF up nearly 24% year to date, indicating a potential bull market [1] - The market has been "climbing a wall of worry," suggesting a durable bull market that persists despite controversies like tariffs and Fed-President tensions [2][3] - Interest rates are likely to decrease, and the market is broadening out beyond just a few concentrated stocks, signaling a healthier bull market [3][4] - Productivity is expected to increase, driving inflation down lower than anticipated during the early stages of recovery [8] Economic Factors & Policy Impact - Deregulation is considered a significant factor in unleashing economic activity [5] - The economy has experienced a "rolling recession," with housing and manufacturing sectors yet to fully recover [6] - Recovery is anticipated with decreasing interest rates, deregulation, and potential tax cuts, including immediate expensing of capital goods [7] Tesla & Elon Musk - Elon Musk is refocusing on transforming transportation, space exploration, addressing health issues with Neuralink, and introducing humanoid robots [11][12] - SpaceX has $22 billion in government contracts, solidifying the US lead in space exploration [13] - Autonomous travel regulations are expected to move to the federal level to maintain US leadership in the field [15] Healthcare Innovation - Significant deregulation is occurring within healthcare, with a focus on curing diseases and eliminating chronic conditions [15] - Neuralink's progress is considered miraculous, contributing to advancements in healthcare [15]

US Treasury yields fell to the lowest level in two months before Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks Tuesday, amid growing political pressure to cut interest rates https://t.co/Jp1pWSbzv6 ...

Bank stocks are on a tear on both sides of the Atlantic, and lower interest rates are a common theme https://t.co/edJ7OyG2Kp ...

When you look at trade negotiations right now, could they actually change the outcome of the European economy. Well, I think that there's going to be a very relevant factor. And if you see, for instance, if you watch our our predictions, they are different alternatives, different different scenarios according to the different outcomes that we might have.I hope that, you know, the negotiations will be finalized. So at least this, you know, will deliver a little bit of predictability because now, you know, th ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on U.S. Treasuries (USTs) and a bearish stance on the U.S. Dollar (USD) [1] Core Insights - Tariffs are significant, with U.S. government revenue from tariffs annualizing over 1% of U.S. GDP, indicating that they do not represent a zero-sum game [1] - U.S. importers paid tariffs equivalent to 65% of corporate income taxes in 2024, and these tariffs represented 15% of non-financial corporate profits after tax in Q1 2025 [10][11] - If corporations absorbed all tariff expenses, profit margins would have fallen to 11.7% from 13.8%, below the 15-year moving average of 12.2% [10][26] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - U.S. importers' tariff payments in June annualized to $327 billion, or 1.1% of Q1 2025 nominal GDP [12][16] - The analysis suggests that tariffs act as a significant tax burden on corporations, impacting profit margins and overall economic growth [11][29] Corporate Profit Margins - In Q1 2025, non-financial corporations reported $2.127 trillion in profit after tax, with profit margins sitting at 13.8% [22] - The report highlights that if tariffs were fully absorbed, profit margins would drop significantly, indicating potential economic stress [26][34] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the economic backdrop is skewed to the downside, with airline passenger traffic slowing and potential impacts from tariffs expected to manifest in inflation data [30] - The recommendation is to stay long U.S. Treasuries and short the USD, reflecting a cautious economic outlook [1][30]

Market Performance & Sentiment - The first half of the year saw an extraordinary market bounce from the April lows, with significant intra-quarter swings [1][2][3] - Sentiment change was notable, with Meta up almost 30% and JP Morgan up almost 20% [2] - The NASDAQ is on the verge of making a new relative high against the S&P, a key indicator for market players [7] - The S&P and NASDAQ made brief new highs, closing the first half near all-time highs with a VIX below 17 [8][9] Economic Factors & Risks - The first half of the year was one of the worst for the US dollar since the 1970s, with a nearly 7% move lower in the dollar index during Q2 [5] - A weaker dollar is beneficial for multinationals and the big tech trade [9] - The Fed lowered its growth target for the US for the second half of the year [10] - There is confusion regarding the Fed's next move, with scenarios for both lowering and maintaining interest rates [11][12] Sector Performance & Concerns - The reemergence of big tech companies has been a significant driver [6] - While tech may continue to drive the market higher, caution is advised due to potential shifts in the dollar or crude oil prices [9] - Energy, materials, home builders, retail, and pharma sectors are underperforming, indicating a lack of broad-based rally [9][10]

Joining us now is Evercore chairman emeritus and black rockck co-founder Ralph Schlaststein right here on set. It's great to have you. Welcome.It's great to be here. Let's start right there. Uh because what what an incredible second quarter we had.Uh tariff tantrum. Is it over. Is is the fear about peak tariffs behind us.Well, I I think you can never say it's completely behind us because I don't think we have a absolutely certain path as to where the president and his team are going to take the tariff discu ...