2011-2015 年熊市周期与当前周期的比较 日期：2025年7月 研究所·李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 研究所·金园园（联系人） 从业资格号：F03134630 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint —硅铁篇 宏观经济疲软，工业产能过剩背景下，供需平衡存在必要性 ◼ 全球经济复苏乏力，中国经济增速放缓： 中国GDP增速放缓，宏观经济较为谨慎 2011-2015年，全球金融危机余波持续， 欧美经济复苏缓慢；中国GDP增速从 2011年的18.2%降至2015年的7.1%，经 济结构调整（如去产能和环保升级）直 接影响钢铁产业链。供给侧改革后期， 淘汰落后产能并将有效产能兼并重组政 策，提高粗钢生产量级，有效推动硅铁 需求的复苏。 ◼ 2020年至今，受到全球疫情因素的冲击， 工业与制造业需求断崖式收缩，钢铁生 产短暂影响停滞。2021年后期，受到基 建和出口需求的影响，钢铁需求增速呈 现V型反弹，供应表现相对平稳，支撑硅 铁需求，但拉动相对有限。 资料来源 Mysteel ，铁合金在线： ，国泰君安期货 ...

| 产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 周敏波 | 20010559 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年7月7日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 钢材价格及价差 | 其差 | 品种 | 现值 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 前值 | | | | | | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3170 | 3150 | 20 | 77 | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3170 | 3160 | 11 | 10 | | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3230 | 3220 | 10 | 137 | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3098 | 300dd | -1 | 72 | | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3072 | 3076 | -4 | ರಿ8 | 螺纹钢01合约 | 77 | 3093 | 3090 | 3 | | | | 元/吨 | 热卷现货(华东) | 3250 | 3250 | 0 | 40 | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhu Hai Chuan Mei Xun New Materials Co., Ltd. is preparing for an IPO on the Beijing Stock Exchange, facing challenges such as leadership changes and declining profit margins despite revenue growth [1][5]. Company Overview - The company was founded in 2004 and is controlled by LIM KHENG TEE and Lin Yu Xiang, who together hold 62.79% of the shares [2]. - Lin Yu Xiang, a former professional baseball player, has gradually reduced his management role and shareholding, officially stepping down as chairman in December 2023 [3][4]. Leadership Changes - LIM KHENG TEE, aged 59, has taken over as chairman from Lin Yu Xiang, who remains a director and deputy general manager [4]. - The leadership transition coincides with Lin Yu Xiang's divorce, which resulted in a share transfer to his ex-wife [3]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue increased from 185 million yuan in 2022 to 207 million yuan in 2024, but net profit showed a decline from 42.2 million yuan in 2023 to 40.11 million yuan in 2024, indicating a "growth without profit" scenario [5]. - The sales prices of several products, including dispersed ink and water-based pigment ink, have been decreasing, contributing to the profit decline [5][7]. Industry Competition - The digital ink printing industry is experiencing intense competition, leading to price wars and declining product prices [5][8]. - Competitors have indicated that the current price pressure is primarily due to competition within the industry, with expectations of continued price declines [8]. Future Plans - The company plans to raise 43.16 million yuan through the IPO to expand production capacity, aiming to increase total capacity from 9,599.19 tons to 14,299.19 tons, a 49% increase [8].

| 品种 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | | 短期偏强 | 去产能反内卷带动黑色系上行，市场情绪转强。钢材基本面变化不大，钢 | | 螺纹钢 | 厂盈利水平较高，铁水产量仍然高企，螺纹产量继续上升，表观需求基本 | | | 持平，钢材整体出口需求仍然较好，供需矛盾比较有限。基差修复背景叠 | | | 加预期改善，行情短期偏强运行。【3060，3100】 | | 热卷 短期偏强 | 热卷产量小幅上升，表观需求环比略降，库存变化不大。供需总体相对平 | | | 衡，出口需求仍在，矛盾有限。基本面变化不大，上行主要受情绪改善推 | | | 动，短期表现或偏强。【3190，3230】 | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转降，预计后期铁水缓慢下行。供给端发货冲 | | 铁矿石 区间参与 | 量结束，到货仍有增量。港口累库，钢厂刚需补库，整体供需结构环比转 | | | 弱。观点：短期区间参与，中期布局空单。【720,750】 | | 焦炭 震荡 | 独立焦企产量近期有所回落，但钢厂焦企产量仍然较高。总库存环比下降， | | | 绝对水平偏高。铁水产量环比上升，对原料需求保障，供需变化不 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [60]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading manufacturer in the personal hygiene care products sector in China, with a focus on disposable hygiene products such as baby diapers, adult diapers, menstrual pants, sanitary napkins, and wet wipes. It has accelerated its layout of proprietary brands and is expanding into the sanitary napkin market through the acquisition of Hubei Sibao Group [1][13]. - The diaper industry is expected to recover in 2025, driven by price increases, despite a projected decline in retail scale for 2024. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in newborn numbers and the expansion of production capacity [2][29]. - The sanitary napkin market is experiencing growth, with the company leveraging its newly acquired brand, Jieting, to drive sales through e-commerce channels and new product launches [3][47]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leader in the manufacturing of personal hygiene products, with a strong focus on research and development. It has successfully partnered with high-quality clients and is expanding its proprietary brand portfolio [1][13]. Diaper Industry Outlook - The Chinese diaper market is projected to have a retail scale of approximately 41.1 billion yuan in 2024, with a decline in sales volume but stable average prices. The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in newborn numbers and the expansion of its production capacity [2][29]. Sanitary Napkin Market Dynamics - The sanitary napkin market is projected to grow, with a retail scale of about 99.5 billion yuan in 2024. The company is focusing on e-commerce and new product launches to enhance its market position [3][43]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 4.6 billion yuan in 2025, with growth rates of 17.5%, 18.5%, and 20.0% for the following years. The current stock price reflects a lower PE ratio compared to peers, indicating potential for valuation improvement [4][60].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Neutral (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The approval of D-Alulose as a new food ingredient is a significant development, indicating potential growth in the food additive sector [1] - TDI and DMF prices have shown upward trends, with TDI prices increasing by 6.7% and DMF by 5.1% in the recent week, reflecting supply-demand dynamics in the chemical market [2][3] - The basic chemical sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a weekly increase of 0.46% compared to a 1.54% rise in the CSI 300 index, ranking 21st among all sectors [4][16] Summary by Sections Key News Tracking - On July 2, the National Health Commission announced the approval of D-Alulose and other substances as new food materials, which may enhance market opportunities in the food sector [1][13] Product Price Tracking - WTI oil prices rose by 1.5% to $66.5 per barrel, while key chemical products like TDI and DMF saw price increases of 6.7% and 5.1%, respectively [2] - The top five chemical products with price increases included carbon dioxide (+25.6%) and TDI (+6.7%) [2][30] Sector Performance - The basic chemical sector's performance was weaker than the CSI 300 index, with a 0.46% increase compared to the index's 1.54% rise, indicating a need for strategic focus on sectors with better growth potential [4][16] Focused Sub-industry Insights - The report suggests focusing on industries with stable demand and supply dynamics, such as refrigerants and phosphates, while also highlighting opportunities in MDI and agricultural chemicals [5] - Companies recommended for investment include Juhua Co., Yuntianhua, and Wanhua Chemical, reflecting a strategic approach to capitalize on market trends [5]

PTA：供需恶化预期下，TA9-1价差或继续压缩 MEG：供需利好有限，MEG震荡整理为主 正信期货聚酯周报 20250707 作者：赵婷 审核：王艳红 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 投资咨询编号：Z0010675 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 数据来源：WIND,隆众 成本端：地缘局势整体趋于缓和，且下周OPEC+将召开会议，预计短期油价偏弱运行。PX方面，PX供需基 本面维持去库，但原油预期偏弱，同时终端支撑不佳，PX缺乏持续利好支撑，预计短期偏弱运行。 供应端：PTA：逸盛海南有提负预期，以及独山能源重启，PTA有增量预期。乙二醇：国产量快速提升， 进口收沙特装置影响由缩量预期，乙二醇总供应增幅有限。 需求端：逸盛海南、逸盛大连、重庆万凯以及部分短纤工厂计划进入7月后减产、检修，聚酯产能利用率 高位下滑预期较强。当前纺织市场谨慎偏空，终端消费持续疲软叠加传统生产淡季，下游订单表现可持 续性不足。随着淡季深入，订单表现欠佳，秋冬打样氛围清淡，终端需求持续走弱，后市来看织造行业 仍存降负预期。 策略：PTA：PTA供应有提升预期，终端季节性淡季来临 ...

Industry Overview - The pig farming sector is entering a new cycle due to the simultaneous decline in pig production capacity and the turning point in chicken prices, with a stronger supply-demand imbalance leading to potential price drops and reduced profits for farmers [1] - The supply side shows steady growth in market pig supply and increasing fat pig inventory, while the demand side is currently weak due to the summer off-season, resulting in a challenging pricing environment [1] - Policies are being implemented to optimize production capacity, including a reduction in the target for breeding sows by 1 million to 39.5 million and stricter environmental regulations [1] Chicken Industry Insights - The lowest point for yellow chicken prices may have passed, with expectations for marginal recovery in the second half of the year due to improving consumer demand and seasonal consumption patterns [2] - The current yellow chicken production capacity is at a low level, and the price elasticity is primarily influenced by demand-side changes, with potential for price increases in 2025 [2] - The industry is facing challenges with many producers experiencing losses, which may limit their willingness to invest in new stock, while recent bankruptcies among top companies could further reduce supply [2] Company Analysis Pig Farming Business - The company is integrating farmer resources and innovatively entrusting the breeding of sows to farm owners, which enhances farmer participation and allows for rapid expansion of output [3] - The company has developed a competitive breeding system that reduces the age at which pigs are ready for market by 12 days and lowers feed conversion ratios, resulting in significant cost advantages [3] - Through precise management practices, the company has achieved a reduction in feed consumption per sow and improved feed formulation, maintaining industry-leading cost levels despite unfavorable raw material conditions [3] Chicken Business - The company has established a leading research and development system in yellow chicken breeding, with a diverse genetic resource pool that meets market demands [4] - The company's market share in yellow chicken has doubled from 1.3% in 2018 to 2.6% in 2024, driven by an optimized product matrix [4] - The company is focusing on developing medium and slow-growing chicken products to align with changing consumer preferences and improve product quality [4] Slaughtering Business - The company is expanding its slaughtering and processing operations to create a comprehensive food ecosystem, leveraging vertical integration to enhance efficiency [5] - Collaborations with leading international firms are being utilized to adopt advanced technologies and management practices in food manufacturing [5] Investment Outlook - The new cycle logic in the pig farming sector is strengthening, with expectations of production capacity fluctuations and clearer cyclical trends [6] - The company is projected to achieve an average profit of approximately 300 RMB per pig, supporting a market valuation of 330 billion RMB based on expected output [6] - Given the anticipated market conditions, the company's stock price could see significant upside potential, with a target price exceeding 140 RMB, translating to over 154 HKD [6]

Core Insights - The report predicts that Brent crude oil prices will fluctuate around $65-70 per barrel in the second half of 2025, driven by tight supply and slow demand growth, with potential short-term spikes due to geopolitical factors [4][9] - The petrochemical industry is expected to gradually recover from its bottoming out phase, returning to a normal capacity cycle constrained by credit boundaries, leading to a slow recovery in profitability in 2025 and beyond [4][10] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in high-quality growth stocks, coal chemical equipment investments, and high-dividend sectors, emphasizing a bottom-up investment approach [4][10] Oil Price Trends - Oil prices experienced a two-phase trend in 2025: a decline from $74.64 to $60.23 per barrel (down 19.31%) until May 3, followed by a recovery to $77.01 per barrel (up 27.86%) after May 3 due to seasonal demand and geopolitical tensions [7][25] - The report indicates that global oil supply remains tight, with non-OECD countries contributing to demand growth, which will limit the extent of price declines [9][27] Industry Performance - Global refining capacity is projected to grow by 440,000 barrels per day from 2022 to 2028, with China contributing significantly to this increase [27][33] - The report notes that domestic refined oil demand is nearing its peak, with a decline in consumption due to economic weakness and competition from electric vehicles [39][45] - The petrochemical sector is experiencing a weak recovery, with some chemical products showing improved profitability despite high raw material costs [8][45] Investment Themes - The report emphasizes four main investment themes: 1. Quality growth and leading companies in the industry experiencing volume and price increases [10] 2. Opportunities in high-end materials and technology import substitution [10] 3. Investments related to the upcoming coal chemical investment cycle [10] 4. High dividend yielding state-owned enterprises benefiting from economic recovery [10][11] Recommendations - Key investment targets include leading companies in ethylene production, coal chemical leaders, and high dividend stocks such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Petroleum [11][10] - The report suggests focusing on companies that are positioned to benefit from the recovery in domestic demand and the transition to high-end materials [11][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various economic indicators and trends in different sectors, highlighting the current state of liquidity, construction, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, along with price movements and production metrics. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -5.6 percentage points in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points [3] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 49.12 in June 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.07% from the previous month [3] - London gold prices increased by 1.94% compared to the previous week [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in late June was 2.129 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.88% [4] - Price changes included rebar up by 2.91%, cement price index down by 1.68%, and iron ore up by 3.55% [4] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tires changed by -0.54 percentage points, +16.00 percentage points, -0.6 percentage points, and -1.89 percentage points respectively [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices for titanium dioxide and flat glass decreased by 1.47% and remained unchanged respectively, with glass profit at -58 CNY/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1227 CNY/ton [5] - The operating rate for flat glass was 75.68% this week [5] Industrial Products Chain - The PMI new orders index for June was 50.20%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [6] - Major commodity prices showed mixed results, with cold-rolled steel and copper prices increasing by 0.27% and 0.22%, while aluminum prices decreased by 0.91% [6] - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was 70.41%, down by 7.64 percentage points [6] Subcategories - The capacity utilization rate for electrolytic aluminum reached a record high since 2012 in May [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum was 20,750 CNY/ton, down by 0.91%, with a calculated profit of 3,428 CNY/ton (excluding tax) [7] - The price of graphite electrodes remained stable at 18,000 CNY/ton, with a comprehensive profit of 1,357.4 CNY/ton, down by 5.56% [7] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore reached a near seven-month high at 4.27 this week [8] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel was 110 CNY/ton, while the price difference between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel reached 340 CNY/ton, up by 170 CNY/ton [8] - The price difference for small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) was 140 CNY/ton, down by 26.32% from last week [8] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1,342.99 points, down by 1.92% [9] - The capacity utilization rate for U.S. crude steel was 79.10%, down by 0.50 percentage points [9] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.54%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being ordinary steel, which rose by 6.52% [10] - The PB ratios for ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 PB were 37.44% and 69.40% respectively [10] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 PB is 0.53, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]