| t产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 2025年5月21日 | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | 现值 | | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解误 | 124575 | 125000 | -425 | -0.34% | 元/吨 | | 1#多川镇 | 125525 | 125950 | -425 | -0.34% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镍升贴水 | 2150 | 2100 | 50 | 2.38% | 元/肥 | | 1#进口键 | 123575 | 124050 | -475 | -0.38% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镍升贴水 | 200 | 200 | 0 | - | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | -202 | -194 | -8 | 4.18% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | -2726 | -3910 | 1184 | -30.28% | 元/吨 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Nasdaq index is facing a significant resistance point after a substantial rebound, suggesting a high probability of adjustment in the near future [1] - The S&P index has also shown a notable decrease in trading volume, which implies a weakening upward momentum, leading to a cautious outlook for the broader market [1] Group 2 - In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight increase of 0.38%, with a trading volume of 92.3 billion, indicating a seemingly positive volume-price relationship [2] - However, there are critical resistance points to watch, particularly at 3439 points, which was a previous high that the index failed to surpass [2] - The recent breach of an upward support line suggests that the market may face significant upward pressure, and a continuous decrease in trading volume could indicate a potential adjustment phase [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy path has become a focal point for global markets, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut in 2025 being challenged by rising inflation risks and a resilient labor market [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in April, exceeding expectations for three consecutive months, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3]. - Factors contributing to inflation include rising energy prices, localized supply chain tensions, and sticky wage growth in the labor market [3]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that if inflation remains above the 2% target, the timeline for rate cuts could be pushed back to 2026 [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - A delay in rate cuts could enhance the attractiveness of U.S. dollar assets, leading to a negative correlation with capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks [3]. - Historical data shows that during the Fed's rate hike cycle in 2022, capital outflows from Hong Kong stocks exceeded 10 billion HKD in a single day, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 15% [3]. - Currently, despite Hong Kong stocks being undervalued, tightening external liquidity may offset this valuation advantage, as indicated by a decrease in the overweight ratio of global emerging market funds in Hong Kong stocks from 5.2% to 3.1% [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The company recommends focusing on defensive sectors such as utilities and telecommunications, which have stable cash flows and are less impacted by external liquidity shocks [5]. - It is advised to use currency hedging tools, such as USD/HKD forward contracts or offshore RMB options, to mitigate the risk of asset depreciation due to a stronger dollar [5]. - Investors should closely monitor Fed officials' speeches and economic data releases to identify potential trading opportunities, particularly in response to employment and inflation data [5].

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 21 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.5 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.4-15 元/ 公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.2-14.5 元/公斤，较上一日稳定； 广东 14.9-15.4 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。5 月规模企业出栏计划增加，且生 猪体重高位，供应压力累积中，前期二育强势进场，随着部分养殖户加快出 栏节奏，短期供应压力释放。需求端，虽然端午节备货临近，但天气转热， 猪肉消费转淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求难有明显增量，不过低 位二次育肥滚动进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企 业出栏节奏、二育进出情况、体重变化。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，5-9 月供应呈增加态 势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压 力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪 价仍有下跌风险，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格波 动对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The leading economic index in the U.S. fell to 99.4 points in April, marking the largest decline since March 2023, raising concerns about the economic growth outlook [1][9] Group 1: Reasons for Decline in Leading Economic Index - Global economic slowdown significantly impacts the U.S. economy, with factors such as international trade tensions, slowing growth in emerging markets, and global policy uncertainty contributing to the decline [3] - Domestic policy uncertainty, including adjustments in fiscal policy, changes in tax policy, and regulatory environment, leads to cautious investment and expansion decisions by businesses [4] Group 2: Economic Growth Forecasts - The forecast indicates that the U.S. real GDP growth rate will slow to 1.6% by 2025, lower than previous expectations, reflecting market concerns about the growth outlook [5] Group 3: Inflation Pressures - Despite the economic slowdown, inflationary pressures remain, with the inflation rate in the U.S. rising over the past year, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments [6] Group 4: Policy Adjustments and Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve may need to adjust monetary policy in response to the anticipated economic slowdown, potentially leading to more accommodative measures to support growth, which will impact market interest rates and asset prices [8] - Market expectations regarding the U.S. economic growth outlook have shifted, with investor concerns about the slowdown potentially leading to increased market volatility, particularly in equity and bond markets [9]

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported stable growth in key economic indicators for April, with notable attention on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) [2] - April's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.5%, indicating stability [2][4] - The PPI fell by 2.7% year-on-year, with a widening decline compared to the previous month, influenced by international energy price drops and external factors [2][5] Economic Analysis - The core CPI's stability suggests resilience in China's domestic demand market, providing room for further policy action [2][3] - The government's target for CPI growth by 2025 is around 2%, with current figures indicating a significant gap to this goal [2] - Analysts suggest that a combination of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies could help achieve a mild price recovery and support GDP growth of approximately 5% by 2025 [2][3] Price Trends - In April, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, reversing a previous downward trend, with seven out of eight categories of goods and services experiencing price increases [4] - Food prices saw a mixed trend, with some items like beef, lamb, seafood, and fresh fruits rising, while fresh vegetables and pork prices declined [4] - The PPI's decline is affecting industrial enterprise profitability, necessitating continued efforts to expand domestic demand and promote technological and industrial innovation [5][6] Future Outlook - The stability of CPI and core CPI reflects the vitality of China's domestic demand market, with expectations for gradual price recovery as policies continue to be implemented [7] - There is a need to address external shocks, particularly from international trade tensions, which could impact industrial product prices [7] - The government aims to enhance support for high-tech industries and promote industrial upgrades to strengthen economic resilience [7]

Ø 黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 上周金价大幅回调。伦敦现货黄金收于3，202美元/盎司（-3.7%），一度触及3500美元，国内AU9999 黄金收于746元/克（周环比-5.0%）。十年期美债利率上行6个基点至4.43%。 中美关税谈判缓和，但地缘风险带动避险情绪升温，黄金先跌后涨，站回3200美元。上周五，中东战火 与俄乌冲突双重夹击，叠加穆迪（Moody's Ratings）突然下调美国主权评级，这一"黑天鹅"事件引发外 界对美国财政状况的担忧，为市场注入强劲的分散风险动能。 第二，关注美国滞胀压力。当前市场对于美国经济状况定价不充分，由于前期关税矛盾，部分商家已完 成商品提价。因此虽然关税缓和，但价格易上难下，后续的通胀压力会逐步传导，同时前期关税对美国 经济的打击有所时滞，只是尚未反映到经济数据上，长周期的滞胀压力仍对美国经济形成挑战。 第三，美联储降息周期仍在进行。美联储的降息节奏虽有延后，但是并没有改变年内3次的降息预期， 尤其是美国财政压力对于降息有极大诉求，黄金受益于美联储降息大周期。 第四，美债矛盾削弱美元信用，支持央行购金。美债到期后的发行压力，除了上述提及的资金成本压 力，还进一步削弱美 ...

沪铜产业日报 2025/5/20 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 77,540.00 | -280.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,470. ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the increasing prevalence of emotional exhaustion and workplace burnout, highlighting the need for individuals to take care of their mental health amidst rising pressures [2][3] Emotional Pressure Management - Emotional pressure is a natural physiological and psychological response to challenges that exceed one's coping abilities, leading to stress hormone release and a "fight or flight" state [3] - Long-term exposure to emotional pressure can severely impact physical and mental health, as seen in the case of individuals facing heavy workloads and family guilt [3] Strategies for Managing Emotional Pressure - Self-awareness is the first step in managing emotional pressure; individuals should observe their feelings and understand their origins [4] - Accepting emotions is crucial; acknowledging feelings of fatigue and the need for rest is a healthy practice [4] - Expressing and releasing emotions is necessary to prevent them from building up; journaling, talking to trusted friends or family, and engaging in physical activities are effective methods [5] - Techniques such as deep breathing, mindfulness meditation, and progressive muscle relaxation can help individuals calm down when emotions run high [5] Work-Related Stress Management - Effective time management and boundary setting can alleviate work-related stress; breaking tasks into smaller steps and prioritizing them can enhance a sense of control [6] - Learning to say "no" to additional tasks when overwhelmed is essential for maintaining a manageable workload [6] - Establishing a supportive home environment and communicating stressors with family can help mitigate emotional outbursts and foster understanding [6]

英国央行首席经济学家皮尔：通胀压力指标令我感到担忧。 ...