期货热点追踪 油价持续反弹，美国产量减弱，欧洲和中国需求增加，市场前景如何？ 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - Key Point 1: China's foreign exchange reserves for April are pending release [1] - Key Point 2: A press conference will be held by the State Council Information Office at 09:00 [1] - Key Point 3: France's trade balance for March will be released at 14:45 [1] Group 2 - Key Point 1: Eurozone's retail sales month-on-month for March will be announced at 17:00 [1] - Key Point 2: The EIA crude oil inventory and strategic petroleum reserve data for the week ending May 2 will be released at 22:30 [1] - Key Point 3: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision at 02:00 the next day [1] - Key Point 4: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 02:30 the next day [1]

Group 1 - The recent increase in tariffs by the US government poses a significant risk to global economic growth, severely impacting the global commodity market, particularly oil prices, which are showing weak trends [1][2] - On May 5, the price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $1.16 to $57.13 per barrel, a decline of 1.99%, while Brent crude for July delivery dropped by $1.06 to $60.23 per barrel, down 1.73% [1] - In April, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil experienced a significant monthly decline of 18%, marking the largest drop since 2021 [1] Group 2 - The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised its global oil demand growth forecast for this year down to 1.3 million barrels per day, with the adjusted annual average demand expected to be approximately 105.1 million barrels [2] - US economic data has intensified concerns over reduced oil demand, with March job vacancies falling to 7.192 million and the consumer confidence index dropping to 86 in April, the lowest in recent years [2] - In April, US gasoline demand decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, the largest decline in two years, indicating weakened consumption and slowing activity in manufacturing and transportation sectors [2] Group 3 - The oversupply of crude oil is a significant issue, with OPEC+ planning to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May, a substantial rise from the previous plan of 135,000 barrels per day [3] - Market predictions indicate a potential accumulation of 600,000 to 700,000 barrels per day in global oil inventories by the second half of 2025 [3] - Speculative behavior in the market has exacerbated pessimistic sentiment, with WTI net long positions dropping to historical lows and Brent crude experiencing a record weekly reduction of 162,300 contracts [3] Group 4 - The formation of a true bottom in oil prices requires several conditions: stabilization of global demand, adjustments in oil supply, a balanced geopolitical situation, and alleviation of inventory pressures [4] - OPEC+ has announced an increase in production of 411,000 barrels per day in June, but this may be paused or reversed depending on market conditions [4] - As of April 25, US crude oil inventories stood at 440.4 million barrels, a decrease of 2.7 million barrels from the previous week, yet still close to the five-year average [4] Group 5 - The uncertainty in international oil prices is expected to lead to significant volatility, presenting a severe challenge for energy security [5] - Countries are encouraged to diversify energy import sources and accelerate the development of renewable energy [5] - The international community should actively promote multilateral negotiations to ease trade tensions and restore economic growth, thereby stabilizing the global commodity market, including oil [5]

美国能源信息署（EIA）：关于关税税率及其对经济和石油需求增长影响的不确定性增加，导致短期油 价波动加剧。 ...

美国能源信息署（EIA）发布短期能源展望报告（STEO），预计2025年布伦特原油价格为66美元/桶 （此前预计为68美元），预计2026年为59美元/桶（此前预计为61美元）。 EIA将于6月10日发布下一份STEO。 预计2025年美国石油产量1340万桶/日（此前预计1350万桶/日），预计2026年产出1350万桶/日（此前预 计1360万桶/日）。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in commodity and oil prices is significantly impacting tax revenues in Brazil [1] Group 1 - The Brazilian Finance Minister highlighted that the drop in prices for commodities and oil has led to a reduction in tax income [1] - The government is facing challenges in maintaining fiscal balance due to these declining revenues [1] - The situation underscores the vulnerability of Brazil's economy to fluctuations in global commodity prices [1]

金十数据5月6日讯，石油期货从昨日的下跌中反弹，此前欧佩克+决定在6月份将日产量再增加41.1万 桶，被广泛视为欧佩克战略的变化。然而，凯投宏观的分析师大卫•奥克斯利在一份报告中表示："在其 他条件相同的情况下，未来几年全球石油市场的供应将比之前看起来的要好。"凯投宏观将布伦特原油 年底价格预测从每桶70美元下调至60美元，将2026年底的价格预测从每桶60美元下调至50美元。奥克斯 利表示："欧佩克现在可能会逐月评估，这对平息价格波动作用不大。" 凯投宏观：将布油年底价格预期从70美元下调至60美元 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no explicit industry investment rating mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests to take profit on short positions in crude oil and stay on the sidelines for the short - term [1]. - With OPEC+ accelerating production increases, there are concerns about an oversupply in the oil market, leading to a bearish outlook on oil prices in the short - term. However, some institutions expect a rebound in Brent crude prices in the next few months [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Information International Crude Oil Prices - WTI June crude oil futures fell $0.95 per barrel, a 1.60% decline, to $58.29 per barrel; Brent July crude oil futures fell $0.84 per barrel, a 1.35% decline, to $61.29 per barrel; SC2506 crude oil futures fell 17.00 yuan per barrel, a 3.48% decline, to 471.10 yuan per barrel [1]. Market News and Events - Iran's foreign minister stated that an agreement with the US could be reached if the goal is to prevent nuclear weapons [2]. - Saudi Arabia set the official selling price of Arabian Light crude oil to the US in June at a premium of $3.40 per barrel over the Argus Sour Crude Index [2]. - The EU will announce a roadmap to gradually reduce dependence on Russian energy exports on Tuesday [2]. - As of April 24, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year was 4.44 million liters, with a consumption of 3.2 million liters from January to March. The mandatory palm oil blending ratio for biodiesel in Indonesia this year is 40%, up from 35% last year [2]. - If OPEC+ continues to accelerate production increases, DNB Markets analysts believe Brent crude prices could fall below $50 per barrel by the end of this year. OPEC and its allies may significantly increase supply from July to October if member countries' quota compliance does not improve [2]. - The EU plans to propose a ban on importing Russian natural gas by the end of 2027 [2]. - Despite short - term pressure, UBS Group expects Brent crude prices to rebound to $68 per barrel in the next few months [2]. - After OPEC+ agreed to continue accelerating production increases in June, it may approve another 411,000 - barrel - per - day increase in July [2][4]. - Barclays lowered its price forecasts for Brent crude for this year and next due to OPEC+'s accelerated production increases [2][3][4]. - As of the week ending April 29, the speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil futures increased by 2,716 contracts to 116,599 contracts [2]. - On Monday, oil prices in the Asian market fell by more than $2 due to concerns about more supply entering the market as OPEC+ further accelerates oil production increases. The six - month spread of Brent crude turned into a positive spread of 11 cents per barrel for the first time since December 2023, indicating an expectation of sufficient market supply. ING Bank expects the average price of Brent crude this year to drop from $70 to $65 and anticipates a further surplus in the global oil balance throughout 2025 [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral stance [3]. Analyst's View - A Reuters columnist believes that OPEC+'s reason for increasing supply is not valid. With rising supply and potentially falling demand, the oil price is likely to be bearish in the next few months [4]. - Three members of Goldman Sachs' commodities research team lowered their oil price forecasts based on the assumption of increased OPEC+ supply. Goldman Sachs now expects OPEC+'s final production to increase by 410,000 barrels per day in July, up from the previous forecast of 140,000 barrels per day. It predicts that the average price of Brent crude will be $60 per barrel for the rest of 2025 and $56 per barrel in 2026, and the average price of WTI crude will be $56 per barrel for the rest of 2025 and $52 per barrel in 2026 [4].

金十数据5月6日讯，沙特已暗示不惜打一场痛苦的价格战，以维护在产油国世界的主导地位，但由于全 球经济状况恶化，沙特的标准打法这次可能不会那么有效了。这一次，沙特面临一个重大问题。提高供 应的战略可能无法带来理想的需求面反应，而需求面反应是打赢价格战的重要元素。今年年初以来油价 下跌20%，可以说主要是由于美国总统特朗普的贸易战引发对全球需求前景的担忧。无法保证油价暴跌 会引发明显的需求激增。相反，产油国可能到头来要为争夺日益缩小的石油需求蛋糕而大打出手。这可 能会导致价格进一步波动，并有可能破坏沙特长期以来对市场的控制。（路透专栏作家） 沙特可以控制石油供应，但需求可能是其致命弱点 ...

巴西国家石油局：巴西三月份石油产量达362.1万桶/日，同比增长7.9%。 ...