Thesis: Nextdoor’s hyper-localized audiences, ample cash, and efforts to better connect with users via the upcoming NEXT platform make KIND an interesting investment prospect with high upside. That said, the company is bleeding cash, and monetization and profitability mayMarkets rise and fall, booms come and go, and the world keeps ticking. Ultimately, I believe observing megatrends, as difficult as they can be to spot, let alone fully comprehend, can yield insights into the advance of human society, which ...

文字早评 2025/06/26 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+1.04%，创指+3.11%，科创 50+1.73%，北证 50+1.38%，上证 50+1.17%，沪深 300+1.44%， 中证 500+1.68%，中证 1000+1.32%，中证 2000+1.00%，万得微盘+0.53%。两市合计成交 16027 亿，较上 一日+1882 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、央行开展 3000 亿元 MLF 操作，6 月中期流动性净投放总额已达 3180 亿元，实现连续四个月超额续作 MLF。 2、央行等六部门发布 19 项举措：支持增强居民消费能力、支持提高消费供应效率、加强基础金融服务。 3、国泰君安国际获批升级牌照，成为香港首家可提供全面虚拟资产服务的中资券商，支持加密货币交 易等业务。 资金面：融资额+51.30 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+0.10bp 至 1.371%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率+1.30bp 至 2.8746%，十年期国债利率+0.40bp 至 1.6507%，信用利差+0.90bp 至 123bp；美国 10 年期利率-4.00bp 至 4.30% ...

2025年6月26日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 各合约继续下跌，符合日报预期，若有空单可继续持有，近期博弈难度较大，建议轻仓参与或观望。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 6月23日 | 6月20日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1937.14点，较上期上涨14.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1382.05点，较上期下跌10.07% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）2083.46点，较上期下跌28.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1299.58点，较上期下跌0.64% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1586.05点，较上期下跌28.91% | | 6月20日 | 6月20日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1869.59点，较上期下跌218.65点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1342.46点，较上期上涨8.0% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1835USD/TEU, 较上期下跌0.49% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCF ...

Group 1 - The company, formed by the merger of CareerBuilder and Monster in September last year, has agreed to sell its most well-known business, the job recruitment website, to JobGet, which has an application targeting gig workers [2] - CareerBuilder + Monster has also agreed to sell its software business that serves federal and state governments to Canadian software company Valsoft, and will sell military.com and fastweb.com to Canadian media company Valnet [2] - According to filings with the Delaware bankruptcy court, CareerBuilder + Monster's assets are valued between $50 million and $100 million, while its debts range from $100 million to $500 million [2] Group 2 - The company is currently raising $20 million to maintain operations during the bankruptcy process [2] - CEO Jeff Furman stated that CareerBuilder + Monster is facing a "challenging and uncertain macroeconomic environment," and that conducting the sale process under court supervision is the best way to maximize enterprise value and preserve jobs [2] - CareerBuilder + Monster is jointly owned by private equity firm Apollo Global Management and Dutch human resources company Randstad [3]

Group 1 - The report from Itaú BBA predicts a 5% decrease in sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central-southern region for the 2025/26 season, amounting to 590 million tons, with significant declines in the western and northwestern parts of São Paulo state [1] - Despite the decrease in crushing volume, sugar production is expected to increase by 2.7% to 41.2 million tons, with a sugar-to-cane ratio of 52% and an ATR (Total Recoverable Sugar) of 141 kg/ton [1] - Current spot prices for sugar in China show an increase, with Guangxi Sugar Group reporting prices between 6000 - 6080 yuan/ton, up by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while Yunnan Sugar Group's prices remain stable at 5790 - 5830 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - The cotton market is experiencing upward movement, with ICE cotton prices rising by 0.78% to 68.32 cents per pound, and domestic cotton prices in Xinjiang increasing by 65 yuan/ton to 14832 yuan/ton [1] - The overall market sentiment is improving, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% for two consecutive days, and cotton prices in Zhengzhou breaking through 13600 yuan/ton due to low commercial inventories and weather disturbances in Xinjiang [1] - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of improvement, with expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a slight strengthening of cotton prices, although the fundamental drivers remain limited [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 短线看弱 | 地缘冲突缓和，金价技术压力较 大 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升，铜价上行 | 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看弱 核心逻辑：近期原油黄金下挫明显，美股和 A 股拉涨。伊朗和以色列停战，短期地缘冲突缓和，市场 风险偏好回升，金价承压。而金价跌至 60 日均线后出现反弹，这很大程度说明有技术支撑，持续关 注沪金和纽约金 60 日均线支撑，若跌破，短期或维持颓势。此外，避险需求下降，金银比值或持续 走弱。 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘 ...

2025年06月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：情绪释放，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：情绪释放，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 9 | | 原木：基差修复，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 26 日 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | 703.0 | ...

Core Viewpoint - FedEx reported record profits in its latest financial results, but the stock price fell nearly 6% in after-hours trading due to concerns over future guidance and macroeconomic uncertainties [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q4 of fiscal year 2025, FedEx achieved revenues of $22.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of approximately 1%, slightly above market expectations [1]. - GAAP earnings per share (EPS) were $6.88, while non-GAAP adjusted EPS was $6.07, both exceeding analyst expectations of $5.81 to $5.96 [1]. - The operating profit margin improved to 9.1%, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [1]. - The company saved $2.2 billion through its DRIVE cost control program in fiscal year 2025 and plans to cut an additional $1 billion in operating costs in fiscal year 2026 [1]. Market Reaction - Despite strong financial data, FedEx's stock price declined significantly after the earnings report due to the cancellation of the full-year earnings outlook for fiscal year 2026 and a conservative Q1 EPS forecast of $3.40 to $4.00, below market expectations of $4.10 [2][4]. - Concerns were raised regarding the company's international business performance, particularly in air freight, due to a notable decline in low-value e-commerce shipments from China, linked to recent U.S. tariffs [2][3]. Management Commentary - FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam emphasized the need for caution in operational planning due to global macroeconomic uncertainties and rapid changes in the market environment [3]. - The CFO reiterated the focus on cost optimization, network efficiency, and disciplined capital expenditure to mitigate macro pressures [3]. Shareholder Returns - FedEx announced a 5% increase in its quarterly dividend and continued its stock buyback program, reflecting confidence in its cash flow situation [3]. Competitive Landscape - Compared to UPS, which reported a revenue of $21.5 billion with a year-on-year decline of 0.7% but maintained its full-year guidance, FedEx's lack of long-term outlook has raised concerns about its transparency and investor confidence [3][4]. Future Focus Areas - Investors should monitor three key aspects: the ability to meet the conservative Q1 EPS guidance, the stability of U.S.-China trade policies and the international air freight business, and the progress of FedEx Freight's business split and its impact on overall valuation and profit structure [4].

Economic Development - The core viewpoint is that while China's long-term economic fundamentals remain positive, insufficient total demand is a prominent contradiction in the economy. The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in 2024 prioritizes boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency to expand domestic demand comprehensively [3][4]. Consumption Issues - The 2024 Third Plenary Session of the 20th Party Congress emphasizes the need for comprehensive reforms and modernization, with a critical focus on how to stimulate consumption. Experts agree that addressing consumption issues is crucial for economic recovery, especially given the challenges in manufacturing and services due to weak consumer demand [4][5]. - The book "Consumption Prosperity and China's Future" highlights that China's consumption rate is approximately 30 percentage points lower than that of developed countries, indicating a significant gap that needs to be addressed [6]. Policy Recommendations - To stimulate consumption, a policy transformation is necessary. The book suggests that the focus should shift from investment-driven growth to enhancing consumer spending, advocating for measures such as issuing consumption vouchers and improving social security coverage for low- and middle-income groups [7][8]. - The effectiveness of fiscal policies should not only depend on the scale of deficits but also on the direction and structure of fund usage. Allocating more resources to improve people's livelihoods and stimulate consumption is essential for maximizing macroeconomic multipliers [7][8]. Monetary Policy - The book advocates for a moderately loose monetary policy that focuses on domestic economic indicators such as growth, employment, and asset price stability. It suggests exploring new mechanisms for monetary policy transmission that are more closely related to asset prices and consumption expansion [8][9]. Structural Reforms - Structural and systemic issues contribute to weak consumption, necessitating deep economic reforms, particularly in market-oriented reforms. The long-term solution involves reforming income distribution and social security systems to sustain consumption growth [9][10]. - The relationship between government and market roles in resource allocation is critical. The government should minimize direct resource allocation and allow market mechanisms to drive consumption [10][11]. Conclusion - The book provides a comprehensive framework for promoting consumption prosperity, integrating theories on macro consumption suppression, fiscal policy transformation, monetary policy adjustments, and income distribution reforms. This holistic approach aims to address the challenges of insufficient domestic demand and stimulate economic growth [11].

高培勇认为，在宏观经济分析过程中，至少要处理好三个方面的关系，可简单概括为"三兼"。 在证券时报社第十六届上市公司投资者关系管理论坛暨2025中国城市发展新质生产力巡礼走进扬州活动 中，中国社科院原副院长、学部委员高培勇围绕"将预期因素纳入宏观经济分析进程"做了深度分享。 "在需求、供给、预期三者结合的基础上做宏观经济分析，事实上要求我们把预期因素放在更加突出的 位置。"高培勇在论坛上提到，对于中国经济发展，只有企业和居民的预期稳定了、信心增强了，消费 需求和投资需求不足的问题才能随之减轻，源自需求和供给两侧的矛盾和问题才能随之化解，"只有这 样，经济回升向好的态势才会有坚实的基础。" 第三个"兼"，就是要兼容改革与政策两个系统。"宏观调控实际上是双引擎的：一个是政策调整，一个 是改革的行动。"高培勇表示，从历史上看，在经济下行压力突出的背景下，政策调整以增支、减税、 降准降息和增加货币供应量为主。但在加入预期因素之后的宏观经济分析框架中，就必须让政策调整和 改革行动同频共振，两个系统都不可或缺。当前内需不振和预期偏弱交织叠加，既要通过政策调整有效 解决短期的问题，又需立足于改革的行动，致力于解决长期的问题。 ...