戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 报告正文 世界秩序重塑构成新投资范式的底层逻辑 引言 我们在25.4.7 《"事缓则圆"后，当前如何应对？》 提示，特朗普政府企图通过非常规手段化解当前全球供 给与需求失衡，世界秩序重塑的底层逻辑不可逆。部分投资者仍然对"新投资范式"认识不足，对特朗普关税的底 层逻辑存在误解。 ● 引言： 我们在25.4.7 《"事缓则圆"后，当前如何应对？》 提示，部分投资者仍然对"新投资范式"认识不足，对 特朗普关税的底层逻辑存在误解。特朗普政府企图通过非常规手段化解当前全球供给与需求失衡，世界秩序重塑 的底层逻辑不可逆。 ● 全球化进程中，G2在贸易/生产/债务的失衡加剧。 全球经济一体化版图中，美国的定位更多作为全球最大的消 费国，而中国的定位更多作为全球最大的生产国。 一方面，随着中国加入世贸组织，全球化不断深入过程中， G2在贸易/生产/债务方面的失衡也在加剧。 美国过度依靠债务扩张创造需求—>过度消费—>经常项目持续逆差/ 对外债务持续积累—>制造业空心化/供应链的安全问题催生；而中国依靠 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，4月下旬至5月初，EIA原油库存增加，OPEC+宣布将在6月 再次加速增产41.1万桶/天，国际油价再次下跌。OPEC+近期加速增产计划与全球需求增速预期下调形 成博弈，叠加地缘政治与库存压力，2025年布伦特原油价格中枢或维持在65-75美元/桶区间，WTI中枢 或为60-70美元/桶。尽管短期供需矛盾加剧，但OPEC+财政成本支撑及美国页岩油新井成本限制中长期 油价下行空间。 国信证券主要观点如下： 油价观点判断 供给端：供给端OPEC+宣布超预期的5、6月份增产计划。2024年12月第38届OPEC+召开部长级会议， 决定将200万桶/日集体减产、166万桶/日自愿减产目标延长至2026年底;将220万桶/日自愿减产计划再延 长3个月至2025年3月底，3月初，OPEC+发布声明，确定该部分自愿减产将和阿联酋增加的30万桶/日产 量从2025年4月至2026年9月底内逐步恢复。但4月3日OPEC+意外宣布实施超预期的石油增产计划，5月 增产幅度扩充至约原计划3倍的41.1万桶/日;5月3日宣布6月延续41.1万桶/日的增产措施，以此节奏推进 下，OPEC+增产计划 ...

节前，阿斯利康在Q1财报会上高调宣布，将全面退出CNS（中枢神经）领域，终止多个管线项目。 这是继阿斯利康提出"800亿美元"收入目标后的第一次大的管线战略抉择。 消息一出，也引起全行业的巨震。毕竟，同时停掉一整个治疗领域是需要相当大的决心的，这意味着大 量的研发投入打水漂，钱是小事，重要的是巨大的时间成本。 阿斯利康的选择很好理解：CNS领域产品开发难度比想象中要高，而为了尽快实现800亿目标，公司只 能在短期去找确定高的大品种去卷执行能力（比如减肥药和ADC），短中期的高KPI压力，逼着公司很 难去从长期考虑CNS这种"潜在回报巨大，但投入周期漫长"的方向。 CNS领域这几年发展可谓是"喜忧参半"。喜在以礼来、渤健以及福泰等公司在机理和产品获批上均实现 部分突破。"忧"这一块，除了阿斯利康，安进、辉瑞、赛诺菲等在此前均放弃该领域产品开发。 而前年艾伯维87亿天价收购的Cerevel Therapeutics约莫重新燃起了CNS领域的热度，如今，其核心用于 治疗精神分裂症的产品Emraclidine，也在两项二期临床中宣告失败。 大厂们的选择是一个"超级风向标"。那么对于国内这些本土CNS龙头，其中不乏恩华 ...

周三早盘，受利好消息刺激，沪深A股主要的大盘指数高开幅度明显。盘面上看，多数个股上涨，人气比较高。A股，高开低走。 一、大盘指数分析 中午时间紧张，重点分析上证50指数和创业板指数，下午收盘之后，再重点分析上证指数和科创50指数。 先分析上证50指数。 上证50指数，早盘受利好消息刺激，走出了明显的高开走势。开盘位置，是前方的密集成交区，有大量被套的筹码，大盘指数面临的压力非常大，直接突破 需要比较大的量能。早盘走势来看，量能是不足的。实际上，昨天上证50指数走出了调整信号，只是利好消息短暂改变了大盘指数的走势。因此，大盘指数 直接突破概率微乎其微，接下来一段时间，大盘指数大概率还需要调整。 不荐股，只客观记录本人的分析，不作为买卖依据！ 再来看创业板指数。 创业板指数，早盘明显高开，到了前期缺口的上轨处，上方的压力比较大，因此，创业板指数需要调整。目前，日线级别的二十日均线下行，和六十日均线 以及半年线之间的乖离率比较大，修复难度也大，需要创业板指数调整。 六十分钟级别的走势来看，本段上涨，到早盘第一个小时为止，走了九个有效上涨周期，第二小时是变盘节点，所以，午后创业板指数大概率以震荡调整为 主。 二、总结 ...

Group 1 - The market has shown a slight upward movement with increased volume, indicating a challenging path ahead due to a high-volume resistance zone above [1] - The average stock price is performing stronger than the market index, with small and mid-cap stocks undergoing significant recovery [2] - The potential for a short-term pullback exists as the average stock price approaches its resistance line, which may lead to the formation of a new buying point [2] Group 2 - The market index is likely to face pressure in the 3330-3350 range, suggesting a possible consolidation phase after an upward movement [1] - The construction of a new platform around a 30-minute central point is anticipated for the market index due to the influence of heavyweight sectors [2] - The entrepreneurial board index is expected to have a different reaction, potentially not returning to the previous range, indicating a possible third buying point [2]

Group 1 - The core message from the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting emphasizes the importance of patience and strategic investment timing, particularly for retail investors in the A-share market [1] - The article suggests that retail investors should focus on waiting for significant market opportunities rather than making frequent trades, which can lead to emotional trading and missed strategic opportunities [1] - It highlights that many successful investors adopt a patient approach, capitalizing on major market downturns to enter positions [1] Group 2 - The PCR indicator, a short-term timing tool, dropped to 96 on April 30, indicating a high-risk zone, although it is an improvement from previous days when it was above 100 [2] - The article notes that sustained high PCR levels can lead to accumulated short-term risks, suggesting that a market adjustment may be imminent [2] Group 3 - The entertainment sector is currently in a bullish phase, with the market structure indicating a continuation of upward trends despite recent fluctuations [7] - The analysis of market segments shows that the current downward movements are characterized as a mid-level correction rather than a full trend reversal, indicating potential for future rebounds [14][18] - The article suggests that the market is experiencing a complex trend structure, which may limit the strength of any upcoming rebounds [18]

Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 7.162 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 234 million yuan, up 31.80% year-on-year [1] - The increase in domestic cement prices and a decrease in coal costs contributed to gross profit, despite slow recovery in domestic demand impacting sales [2] - The company expects continued profit growth from overseas cement operations and stable unit profitability from aggregates, with net profit projections for 2025-2027 being 2.438 billion, 2.504 billion, and 2.642 billion yuan respectively [3] Financial Analysis - The average price of high-standard cement in Q1 was 398 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35 yuan/ton, indicating a significant price recovery [2] - The difference between net profit and net profit attributable to shareholders is influenced by shareholding ratios in overseas operations, with minority interests exceeding 110 million yuan in Q1 [2] - Financial expenses increased by 70% year-on-year, primarily due to exchange rate impacts, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios reported at 5.30%, 6.41%, and 4.32% respectively [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with expected net profit growth rates of 1%, 3%, and 6% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 11, 11, and 10 [3] - The company is expected to manage exchange rate risks effectively as it expands overseas operations, learning from experiences to mitigate profit volatility [3]

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.5 billion yuan in Q1, representing a year-on-year growth of 32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 730 million yuan, up 109% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of approximately 740 million yuan, reflecting a 342% increase year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's Q1 gross profit margin was approximately 30.5%, an increase of 10.4 percentage points year-on-year, driven by both price increases and a decrease in production costs for raw yarn and electronic fabrics [2] - The company's net profit margin for Q1 was approximately 16.3%, up 6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [2] - The company's asset-liability ratio decreased to around 40% by the end of Q1, showing a trend of financial improvement over the past two years [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The increase in sales volume was primarily driven by the domestic market, while export sales weakened due to political and economic influences in Europe and the United States [2] - The average price of direct yarn in Q1 increased by 23% year-on-year, while the average price of electronic fabrics rose by approximately 0.6 yuan per meter year-on-year [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the global demand for fiberglass, particularly in the wind power sector, with an anticipated increase in global fiberglass demand of over 600,000 tons this year [4] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The fiberglass industry is expected to see a slight improvement in overall profitability, with the wind power sector driving demand in the first half of the year [4] - The company is projected to maintain a competitive edge due to its resource advantages, product structure, and scale, with estimated net profits of approximately 3.4 billion yuan and 4.3 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4] - The company’s export volume is projected to be around 202,000 tons in 2024, with a 27% export ratio, indicating a broad distribution in the export market despite challenges from tariffs [3]

Core Viewpoint - ARCFOX, a brand under BAIC, is experiencing significant growth in sales, with March sales exceeding 13,000 units, marking a historical high. The company aims to maintain this upward momentum and enhance consumer recognition and engagement [1][4]. Group 1: Sales Performance - ARCFOX's sales have shown a positive trend since the second half of last year, with March sales reaching over 13,000 units, a record high for the brand [1]. - The new Alpha S5 model has gained over 30,000 users since its launch, indicating strong market acceptance in the 150,000 RMB price range [4][9]. Group 2: Product Highlights - The ARCFOX 77° concept car, designed by renowned designer Rob Melville, showcases the brand's design philosophy and is expected to influence future production models [4]. - The upgraded Alpha S5 features a new version with a 5C super-fast charging battery from CATL, allowing for a 525 km charge in just 15 minutes, enhancing user convenience [4][13]. - The new T1 model is set to launch in the second half of the year, expanding ARCFOX's product lineup to cover various vehicle categories, including sedans, SUVs, and MPVs [5]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - The new Alpha S5 incorporates several upgrades based on user feedback, including enhanced battery technology, AI integration, and improved comfort features such as a massage function for the front seats [13]. - Safety features have been enhanced with an AR-HUD that displays blind spot images directly in the driver's line of sight, improving overall safety during driving [13]. Group 4: Market Positioning - The new Alpha S5 is priced between 119,800 and 169,800 RMB, positioning it as a competitive option in the market with advanced features and performance capabilities [14].

昆山市采用"1+11"仓库管理模式打造的数字平台，以市级防汛抗旱物资储备中心为中枢，联动11个 区镇分仓，构建起信息共享、全域协同的防汛物资储备网络。物资调度方面，通过手机App，基层防汛 人员可以像"点外卖"一样便捷地申请物资支援。系统自动完成审批流程，实时追踪物资流向，确保每一 件防汛物资都能精准送达最需要的地方。"以前调运物资要打无数个电话，现在动动手指就能搞定，效 率提升了好几倍。"昆山市水务局相关负责人说。 在常熟枢纽管理所，防汛物资调度也有了"智慧"加持。工作人员只需轻点手机屏幕，几秒内就能精 准调取仓库内的防汛物资信息。物资仓库变"聪明"得益于常熟枢纽对标准化仓储的改造和规范化管理。 通过"地面堆高+货架分层"的垂直存储模式和智能管理软件，防汛物资实现"一物一码"精准定位。同 时，深化工作区域整理、整顿、清扫、清洁"4S管理"办法，建立设备管理精细化责任清单，提升防汛物 资调配效率和运维水平。 据苏州市防汛抗旱指挥部相关人员介绍，目前苏州各地都在积极打造防汛抗旱物资储备数字平台， 实现物资管理"全流程可视化"的同时，构建起"全市一盘棋"的防汛应急体系，"就像人体的神经系统一 样，苏州市级中心负责 ...