Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent tensions between China and the European Union (EU) regarding trade issues, emphasizing the need for constructive dialogue and cooperation as both parties celebrate the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations. The Chinese government asserts that its development presents opportunities for the EU rather than challenges, urging the EU to adopt a more objective and positive stance towards their economic relationship [1][2]. Summary by Sections EU's Criticism of China - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen criticized China for issues related to market access, subsidies, government procurement, export controls, and alleged "overcapacity" [1]. China's Response to EU Concerns - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded by highlighting the progress in China-EU economic relations and urging the EU to communicate more and reduce accusations. China aims to expand market access and deepen cooperation in supply chains [1][2]. Market Access - China has removed restrictions on foreign investment in the manufacturing sector and is actively increasing imports from Europe. In contrast, the EU has been accused of using protectionist measures under the guise of fair trade, leading to a deteriorating business environment for Chinese companies [4]. Subsidy Issues - China criticized the EU for its double standards regarding subsidies, noting that the EU plans to provide over €1.44 trillion in various subsidies from 2021 to 2030, while historically being a major subsidizer in sectors like aviation and agriculture [4]. Government Procurement - The Chinese government pointed out that the EU's public procurement market is not as open as claimed, with hidden barriers and policies favoring European products. This has led to retaliatory measures from China to protect its companies [4]. Export Controls - China maintains that its export controls are reasonable and less extensive than those of the EU. It has established expedited approval processes for European companies, yet the EU has been criticized for slow and cumbersome approval processes that disrupt supply chains [5][6]. Overcapacity Claims - China refuted claims of overcapacity, arguing that such assessments should not be based solely on production and export volumes. It emphasized that its renewable energy sector faces a capacity gap rather than overcapacity, and that its green products support the EU's transition to sustainability [6]. Call for Balanced Relations - The Chinese government expressed a desire for the EU to adopt a more balanced perspective on their relationship, focusing on mutual cooperation rather than highlighting differences. It called for both sides to work together to manage trade disputes and foster a stable economic partnership [7].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 近期去产能反内卷政策带动市场情绪转强，预期有所改善。目前铁水产量 | | | | 仍然较高，螺纹产量继续上升，钢材整体出口需求仍然较好。国内需求进 | | | | 入淡季，长期偏弱状态并未转变，基差修复背景下行情或区间运行。【3060， | | | 3100】 | | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 越南对中国热卷出口反倾销税终裁落地。国内热卷产量小幅上升，表观需 | | | | 求环比略降，库存变化不大。供需总体相对平衡，基本面变化不大，前期 | | | | 上行主要受市场情绪改善推动，短期表现或进入区间运行。【3190，3230】 | | 铁矿石 | 区间参与 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转降，预计后期铁水缓慢下行。供给端发货冲 | | | | 量结束，到货仍有增量。港口累库，钢厂刚需补库，整体供需结构中性。 | | | | 反内卷再提，对黑色行业影响有限，短期主要体现为情绪性交易。观点： | | | | 短期区间参与，中期布局空单。【730,760】 | | 焦炭 | 短期偏强 | 焦炭 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term market trend is bullish, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 5100 on the daily K - line of V2509 [3]. - In July, domestic PVC plants are undergoing centralized maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline. Although some plants are planned to be put into production, the exit of backward production capacity driven by policies is expected to relieve supply pressure [3]. - It is the off - season for domestic downstream demand, and the demand in the Indian market is suppressed by the rainy season. The anti - dumping policy may be implemented in early July [3]. - The impact of power rationing in Inner Mongolia has weakened, and some calcium carbide plants have resumed production. The lifting of the export restriction on ethane to China by the US may drive down the cost of the ethylene - based method in the future [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5040 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 77 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 1242330 lots, an increase of 267395 lots, and the open interest is 932779 lots, a decrease of 34594 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 23605 lots, an increase of 6984 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4980 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4822.31 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [3]. - In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4945 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4860 yuan/ton, up 18.75 yuan/ton [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged, and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The basis of PVC is - 180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.67 yuan/ton; in the Northwest, it is 2388 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged, and in Southeast Asia is 564 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 184 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8 US dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 188 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 77.44%, a decrease of 0.65 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80.8%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 68.54%, a decrease of 1.92 percentage points [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC is 37.31 tons, an increase of 1.14 tons. The inventory in East China is 33.03 tons, an increase of 1.1 tons, and the inventory in South China is 4.28 tons, an increase of 0.04 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.72, a decrease of 0.14. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 23183.61 million square meters, an increase of 5347.77 million square meters [3]. - The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 625019.54 million square meters, an increase of 4704.49 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 19154.81 billion yuan, an increase of 4281.68 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 14.54%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points, and the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.28%, a decrease of 1.36 percentage points [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.11%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.1%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 10, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in East China increased by 60 - 70 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with the price ranging from 4830 to 4920 yuan/ton [3]. - From June 28 to July 4, the capacity utilization rate of PVC in China was 77.44%, a decrease of 0.65% compared with the previous period [3]. - As of July 3, the new sample statistics of Longzhong's social inventory increased by 2.89% month - on - month to 59.18 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.66% [3].

，对市场价格形成明显压制。短期多晶硅仍处于去库存阶段，今日现货价格抬升15%，带动期货价格继续 免责声明 拉升，短期现货利润已经充分，多晶硅情绪驱动为主，警惕高位换手，不宜过分追高。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 多晶硅产业日报 2025-07-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 41345 | 2075 8-9月多晶硅价差 | 400 | 155 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 98601 | 1414 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rising by 0.57% and 0.83% respectively, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.29% [1][2] - The Hang Seng Index returned above 24,000 points, closing at 24,028.37 [2] Sector Performance - Major financial stocks, including banks, insurance, and brokerage firms, collectively rose, contributing to the market's afternoon gains [2] - Real estate stocks saw significant gains, with companies like China Oceanwide Holdings rising over 27% and Longfor Group nearly 21% [6] - The "anti-involution" trend continued, with solar, steel, and building materials stocks maintaining upward momentum [2] Technology Sector - Large tech stocks generally declined, with Bilibili, NetEase, JD.com, and Baidu dropping over 1%, while Alibaba saw a slight increase [4][5] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,216.60, down by 0.29% [2] Copper Industry - Copper stocks were weak due to the U.S. imposing import tariffs on copper, leading to a decline in prices [2] - China Metal Resources fell over 13%, and other copper-related stocks also experienced declines [6] Pharmaceutical Sector - Pharmaceutical stocks continued to rise, with Junsheng Tai Pharmaceutical increasing over 18% and other companies like Innovent Biologics and Hengrui Medicine also showing strong performance [8][9] - Goldman Sachs noted that Chinese biotech companies are undervalued compared to their U.S. counterparts, indicating potential for revaluation [8] Financial Sector - The financial sector saw significant gains, with banks like Zhengzhou Bank and Sunshine Insurance rising over 6% [7][10] - Analysts view banks as "certainty assets" amid global low growth and increasing uncertainty, leading to a revaluation of their value [10] Future Outlook - Wall Street investment banks are optimistic about China's "anti-involution" policies, with expectations that the "capacity reduction" policy may boost the stock market [12] - Companies in the new energy vehicle and real estate sectors are expected to benefit from stronger pricing power and healthier profit margins [12]

7月10日，商务部召开新闻发布会，新闻发言人就中美是否会在8月初进行谈判一事进行了回应。 商务部新闻发言人何咏前表示，今年5月以来，在中美两国元首共识指引下，双方经贸团队在日内瓦和伦 敦举行了经贸高层会谈，达成了日内瓦共识和伦敦框架，并抓紧落实有关成果，稳定了两国经贸关系。目 前，双方在多个层级就经贸领域各自关切保持密切沟通，希望美方与中方相向而行，本着相互尊重、和平 共处、合作共赢的原则，发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用，继续加强对话沟通，以实际行动维护和落实好两 国元首通话重要共识，共同推动中美经贸关系稳定、健康、可持续发展，为世界经济发展注入更多确定性 和稳定性。 就欧盟领导人涉华"产能过剩"相关言论， 何咏前 回应称，首先，衡量是否产能过剩，不能单纯以产量和 出口量作为标准。其次，中国新能源产业从全球视角和中长期看，并不存在所谓产能过剩，反而有产能缺 口，欧方指责毫无道理。再次，中方一直在按照市场经济规律推动传统产业转型升级，努力使内需成为拉 动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚。最后，中国的绿色产品非但没有冲击欧盟市场，反而助力欧盟绿色转型， 令欧盟产业和消费者受益。因此，过剩的不是中国的产能，恐怕是欧方因为长期研 ...

智通财经7月10日电，在7月10日例行新闻发布会上，商务部新闻发言人何咏前就欧盟领导人涉华"产能 过剩"相关言论回应表示，首先，衡量是否产能过剩，不能单纯以产量和出口量作为标准。其次，中国 新能源产业从全球视角和中长期看，并不存在所谓产能过剩，反而有产能缺口，欧方指责毫无道理。再 次，中方一直在按照市场经济规律推动传统产业转型升级，努力使内需成为拉动经济增长的主动力和稳 定锚。最后，中国的绿色产品非但没有冲击欧盟市场，反而助力欧盟绿色转型，令欧盟产业和消费者受 益。因此，过剩的不是中国的产能，恐怕是欧方因为长期研发投入不足、产业竞争力下降而引发的过度 焦虑。 何咏前表示，今年是中欧建交50周年，中欧之间将有重要高层交往议程，希望欧方不带情绪和偏见地看 待双方经贸关系，少指责、多沟通，少保护、多开放，少焦虑、多行动，凡事多商量，少去贴标签。中 方愿与欧方一道，以中欧建交50周年为契机，相互扩大双向市场准入，加强政府采购和出口管制对话， 深化产供链合作，推动世贸组织改革，支持世贸组织就产业补贴政策开展讨论，为构建开放型世界经济 注入更多稳定性、确定性和正能量。 商务部再回应所谓"产能过剩"论调 ...

Group 1 - Glass futures showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the main contract reaching 1070.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.98% [1] - The daily melting capacity of float glass has increased to 158,400 tons, with a total inventory of 69.085 million heavy boxes across sample enterprises, indicating a historically high level [2] - The number of glass futures warehouse receipts decreased by 3 to 799 compared to the previous trading day [3] Group 2 - According to Donghai Futures, the glass daily melting volume has slightly increased week-on-week, but the real estate sector remains weak, leading to a decline in downstream processing orders [4] - Hualian Futures reported that two glass production lines resumed operations and one previously ignited line began production, resulting in a slight recovery in operating rates and weekly output [4] - Despite stable supply, the demand in the off-season is weakening, and while manufacturers' inventory remains high, there is an increasing expectation for the exit of outdated production capacity, which may support market confidence [4]

在 "双碳" 目标的战略框架下，能源结构转型进入深水区。国家能源局近日发布的《关于组织开展 能源领域氢能试点工作的通知》，将 "氢氨燃料供电供能" 列为氢能应用试点方向之一，明确提出 在煤电掺氢/掺氨、燃气轮机掺氢/掺氨/纯氢发电等领域开展技术验证，这为破解可再生能源波动性 难题、构建清洁低碳的新型电力系统提供了关键路径。 试点方案中，"氢氨燃料供电供能" 被细分为燃机类（规模≥10 兆瓦，掺氢/掺氨比例≥15%）和燃煤 锅炉类（规模≥300 兆瓦，掺氢/掺氨比例≥10%）两大场景，旨在通过技术改造推动传统火电向低碳 转型。例如，江西省及华电集团首个航改型 燃气轮机掺氢燃烧示范项目 成功完成5%掺氢燃烧点 火。该项目自2024年筹备，对燃气调压站和燃机系统改造，采用航改型内燃机，可年消纳氢气约 2316吨，极具复制性与发展潜力。 技术突破：从实验室到工业化的跨越 如今，氢氨燃料技术不断突破，实现从实验室到工业化的跨越，正在重塑能源产业链。 在工业领域 ，蒙娜丽莎集团全球首条陶瓷工业氨氢零碳燃烧示范线，通过 100% 纯氨燃料替代传 统重油，使陶瓷窑炉碳排放降为零。该项目不仅攻克了氨燃烧稳定性难题，还建成了覆盖 ...

Group 1 - The photovoltaic industry chain is experiencing price increases, with polysilicon manufacturers raising prices to a range of 45,000 to 50,000 yuan per ton, although actual transactions at this level have not yet been observed [1] - There is a strong determination among polysilicon manufacturers to maintain prices, and some downstream companies may accept slight price increases to avoid future risks of further price hikes [1] - The macro-level supply-side clearing guidance is expected to provide a framework for the industry's "anti-involution," but actual implementation may take time [1] Group 2 - Zhongyuan Securities suggests focusing on "capacity clearing" and "new technology iteration" as two main lines for investment [2] - In terms of capacity clearing, attention should be paid to leading companies in the polysilicon and photovoltaic glass sectors, particularly those with significant losses and clear capacity clearing expectations [2] - New technology advancements, particularly in BC cells and perovskite cell commercial applications, are also highlighted as areas of interest [2]