风险提示：以上内容仅作为作者或者嘉宾的观点，不代表和讯的任何立场，不构成与和讯相关的任何投 资建议。在作出任何投资决定前，投资者应根据自身情况考虑投资产品相关的风险因素，并于需要时咨 询专业投资顾问意见。和讯竭力但不能证实上述内容的真实性、准确性和原创性，对此和讯不做任何保 证和承诺。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 股票名称 ["工业富联","海大集团","大金重工","华工科技"] 板块名称 ["科技","新能源","光伏"] A股市场、供给侧、光模块 看多看空 文章中提到A股在冲击3500点时市场表现良好，超过4200家公司上涨，全行业普遍上 涨，科技和新能源板块表现优异，且A股港股在全球有价格优势，未进入高估区，结构中还有高 性价比方向，因此看多A股。 今日聚焦昨日市场表现，一度逼近 3500 点，虽挑战失败但与上周五不同。此次超 4200 家公司上涨，全 行业普涨，仅银行下跌。科技领域 AI 算力基础设施、新能源光伏领涨，光模块+光伏组合亮眼。这波 冲击 3500 点，供给侧发力，消费内需和科技酝酿蓄势，后续潜力可观。 市场温度攀升，A股 港股有价 格优势，未入高估区。 ...

本月有色金属来了一波先扬后抑，此前政策密集释放"反内卷"信号，并明确指向"治理企业低价无序竞争，推动落后产能退出"，而本轮"供给侧"改革最大的 受益者无疑是此前供大于求的铝、钢铁、煤炭等传统工业赛道，国内"反内卷"及低库存也支撑了其价格的上行。 从二级市场中我们看的尤为明显，以中证有色金属指数为例，在月初供给侧改革持续催化的期间，整体保持上行区间，8个交易日收获7条阳线。而到了关税 风波期间，一条大阴线直接让该指数跌回了6月底。 中证有色金属指数近期走势 数据来源：Wind 截至：2025.07.09 面对震荡行情，有人获利了结，有人逢低布局。那目前有色ETF的十字路口要如何抉择？ 资金昨日已经抢跑 就在昨日铜价下行的节点中，不少资金已经"抢跑"布局。截至7月9日，市场最新融资余额为18557.37亿。有色金属行业融资余额增加最多，较上一日增加 9.64亿元；融资余额增加居前的行业还有电子、医药生物、汽车等，融资余额分别增加8.69亿元、6.22亿元、5.66亿元。 但市场风云瞬息万变，当地时间7月9日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上表示，美国将对进口铜征收50%的关税，自2025年8月1日起生效 ...

本报告来源于"慧博投研",请勿外传! 策略配置 2025年7月 10日 请通过合法途径获取本公司研究报告,如经由未经许可的渠道获得研究报告,请慎重使用并注意阅读研究报告,尾页的声明内容。 "反内卷":从"防止"到"综合整治",从供给侧入手缓解低价无序竞 争。近期政府对"内卷式"竞争的重视度明显提升,从去年 7 月政治局会 议首提"要强化行业自律,防止'内卷式'恶性竞争",到中央经济工作 会议指出"综合整治'内卷式'竞争,规范地方政府和企业行为",再到 今年 7 月中央财经委员会第六次会议强调"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞 争,引导企业提升产品品质,推动落后产能有序退出"。目前政策 导向主 要分两类,一类是政府层面发布多项纲领性文件,推进全国统一大市场建 设、完善价格机制与监管审查机制等;一类是产业层面引导企业加强自 律、公平竞争、提升产品品质、推动落后产能有序退出等。 历史对比:与2016-17年供给侧改革行政化手段加码上游周期行业去产能 ■ 去产量不同,本轮主要以市场化手段引导中下游新兴行业减少低价竞争。 对比本轮"反内卷"与上一轮供给侧改革,二者均从供给侧入手解决供需 不匹配问题,但也存在明显差异:第一,本 ...

中证 2000ETF 华夏（562660）紧密跟踪中证 2000 指数，该指数精选沪深两市 2000 只市值小、流动性 优的证券作为样本，呈现极致小盘风格，与大中盘指数形成互补。指数聚焦 "专精特新" 与民营实体经 济，机械设备、电子、医药生物等新兴产业占比高，成长潜力十足。前十大成分股权重占比不足 2%， 风险分散优势显著。 中证2000ETF华夏（562660），场外联接（华夏中证2000ETF发起式联接A：019891；华夏中证 2000ETF发起式联接C：019892）。 7月10日午盘，沪指站稳3500接续上供，中证2000指数持续上扬。截至2025年7月10日 14点13分，中证 2000指数上涨0.10%，成分股普联软件、新城市涨停，厚普股份上涨19.07%，硅宝科技上涨17.46%，华 纳药厂上涨13.59%。中证2000ETF华夏（562660）上涨0.35%，最新价报1.43元。拉长时间看，截至 2025年7月9日，中证2000ETF华夏近1周累计上涨1.72%。从资金净流入方面来看，中证2000ETF华夏近 4天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得839.53万元净流入，合计"吸金"1973 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific outlooks and trading suggestions for various commodities. 2. Core Views - **Macro Environment**: Market uncertainties persist across different sectors, influencing the price movements of various commodities. The economic situation, policy changes, and geopolitical factors all play significant roles in shaping market trends [1]. - **Commodity - Specific Trends**: Different commodities have distinct price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external influences such as tariffs and geopolitical events. For example, some metals are expected to face downward pressure due to factors like supply increases or cost - related issues, while others may see price rebounds or stabilizations [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - Financial** - **Equity Index**: In the short term, with limited domestic and international positive factors, but decent market sentiment and liquidity, the equity index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning about interest - rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Given market uncertainties, the gold price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price is likely to oscillate due to market uncertainties [1]. **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a back - flow of non - US copper, posing a risk of price correction for Shanghai and London copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: With the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and high prices suppressing downstream demand, the aluminum price faces a risk of decline. However, the domestic anti - involution policy boosts the expectation of supply - side reform, causing the alumina price to stabilize and rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Tariff disturbances are increasing, and the expected inventory build - up is still pressuring the zinc price. Traders are advised to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: With macro uncertainties and a slight decline in the premium of Indonesian nickel ore, the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term short - selling is recommended, and in the long - term, the oversupply of primary nickel will continue to exert downward pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After a rebound, the sustainability of the stainless - steel price is uncertain. Short - term trading is advised, and selling hedges can be considered at high prices, while keeping an eye on raw - material changes and steel production [1]. - **Tin**: With increasing tariff disturbances, the tin price is mainly priced based on macro factors. In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the driving force for price movement is limited [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply shows a pattern of decrease in the north and increase in the south. Although the demand for polysilicon has a marginal increase, there are expectations of future production cuts. After the price rally, market divergence is likely to emerge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and market sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply side has not seen production cuts, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital - based gaming in the market [1]. **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The strong performance of furnace materials provides cost support, but the spot market for hot - rolled coils has a risk of marginal weakening. Both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, production has increased, demand is decent, supply - demand is relatively balanced, but cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to short - term production increases, relatively balanced supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Production has slightly increased, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1]. - **Glass**: There is an improvement in the supply - demand margin in the short term, with stable supply and resilient demand. However, in the medium - term, oversupply may make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has been disrupted, direct and terminal demand is weak, cost support has weakened, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, short - term short - selling opportunities can be considered, and for coke, focus on selling hedges when the futures price has a premium [1]. **Agricultural Products** - **Palm Oil**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes a decline in crude oil prices, and palm oil is expected to follow suit. In the long run, international oil - fat demand is expected to increase, so a bullish view is taken on far - month contracts [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The near - month fundamentals are weak, but it may show a relatively strong performance due to the influence of palm oil [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are high. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. Overall, the domestic cotton price is expected to show a weakly oscillatory downward trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term policy - driven grain releases and a low wheat - corn price difference have a negative impact on the corn market. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and for the far - month CO1 contract, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the US, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. If Sino - US trade policies remain unchanged, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter for soybean meal, and the far - month contract price is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the overall decline in the futures price is expected to be limited [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: With the cooling of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the market returns to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC +'s unexpected production increase and strong short - term consumption in Europe and the US during the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production is expected to increase, and inventory has slightly increased [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There have been recent device disturbances stimulating the price increase, OPEC's unexpected production increase, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and the de - stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis continues to weaken, but the crude - oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduction, and the PTA spot market is becoming more abundant, with low replenishment willingness from polyester manufacturers due to profit compression [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal price has slightly increased, the future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is large, and the concentrated procurement due to improved polyester sales has an impact on the market [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is low, and factory maintenance has increased. With a high basis, the cost of short - fiber is closely related to the market [1]. - **Styrene**: The pure - benzene price has slightly recovered, the import volume has decreased, the styrene device load has increased, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the styrene basis has significantly weakened [1]. - **Urea**: Domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, but the export expectation in the second half of the year is improving [1]. - **PE**: With good macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is limited, orders are mainly for rigid demand, and the anti - involution policy has boosted market sentiment, causing the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PVC**: The price of coking coal has increased, the market sentiment is good, the number of maintenance activities has decreased compared to the previous period, but the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has dropped to a low level, the decline in liquid chlorine has eroded the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry, and the number of current warehouse receipts is low. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - **LPG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both decreased, OPEC + has unexpectedly increased production, the combustion and chemical demand for LPG is in the seasonal off - season, and the spot price decline is slow, so the PG price still has room to fall [1]. **Shipping** - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a pattern of stable current situation and weak future expectations. The freight rate is expected to reach its peak in mid - July, showing an arc - top trend, and the peak - reaching time is advanced. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient capacity deployment [1].

Group 1 - The photovoltaic industry chain is experiencing price increases, with polysilicon manufacturers raising prices to a range of 45,000 to 50,000 yuan per ton, although actual transactions at this level have not yet been observed [1] - There is a strong determination among polysilicon manufacturers to maintain prices, and some downstream companies may accept slight price increases to avoid future risks of further price hikes [1] - The macro-level supply-side clearing guidance is expected to provide a framework for the industry's "anti-involution," but actual implementation may take time [1] Group 2 - Zhongyuan Securities suggests focusing on "capacity clearing" and "new technology iteration" as two main lines for investment [2] - In terms of capacity clearing, attention should be paid to leading companies in the polysilicon and photovoltaic glass sectors, particularly those with significant losses and clear capacity clearing expectations [2] - New technology advancements, particularly in BC cells and perovskite cell commercial applications, are also highlighted as areas of interest [2]

每日经济新闻 港股国企ETF跟踪的是内地国有指数，该指数聚覆盖了在A股上市的重要央企和地方国企。指数成分股 主要集中在金融、能源、工业等行业，以反映大型国有企业在中国经济中的重要地位及其市场表现。该 指数由相关证券交易所或指数公司编制，具有稳健的投资风格，是机构投资者资产配置中的重要工具之 一。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 消息面上，中国船舶吸收合并中国重工的重大资产重组事项于2025年7月9日获上交所审议通过，标志着 国内造船业最大规模资本运作进入收官阶段；同期，中国商业航天产业迎来证券化浪潮，江苏深蓝航天 完成近5亿元融资推进可回收火箭研发，成都国星宇航提交港交所上市申请，产业链资本化进程加速； 此外，云南国资国企以重大项目为抓手推动投资增长，中国一汽2025年上半年整车销量突破157万辆， 国家电网140项迎峰度夏工程全部 ...

近期，债市缺乏单边驱动，日间波动主要受股债"跷跷板"效应影响。截至本周三下午，10年期国债活跃 券收益率报2.6430%，较上周五收盘上行0.2个基点；30年期国债活跃券收益率报2.8575%，较上周五收 盘上行0.6个基点。期货市场方面，30年期、10年期、5年期、2年期国债期货主力合约本周前3个交易日 累计跌幅分别为0.09%、0.05%、0.08%、0.04%，市场重回低波动状态。 市场对美国关税变化的反应钝化 7月9日是美国对非中经济体的90天关税暂缓期到期日。白宫7日证实，特朗普计划签署行政令，延长"对 等关税"90天暂缓期，将实施时间推迟到8月1日。特朗普7日宣布对日本、韩国等14国进口产品征收25% 至40%不等关税，8日表示将对所有进口至美国的铜征收50%的新关税（未明确生效时间），关税威胁 再度升温。不过，市场对关税变化的反应趋于克制，避险情绪未明显升温，投资者对特朗普政策反复的 适应性增强，"避险而不恐慌"，预计市场难现4月的极端波动。 当前，"大而美"法案通过后，特朗普政策重心或重回关税谈判，将其作为外交工具。但美国仅与英国、 越南达成贸易协议（细节待敲定），与欧盟、日本、韩国、印度等经 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 7 月 10 日星期四 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-7-10） | | | | | 铁矿：近期铁矿石盘面受情绪影响低位反弹，矿山季末冲量基本结束，澳 洲和巴西发运量均有一定程度下降，近端到港量也环比下行，后续供应依 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 然宽松。产业端淡季，五大钢材产量增，铁水淡季不淡，铁矿港口库存仍 | | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 旧在去库，240 以上的高铁水仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水见顶情 | | | | | | 况。供给侧改革消息扰动叠加唐山限产带动黑色价格上涨，原料跟涨。中 | | | | | | 长期看，铁矿石中长期看整体呈现供应逐步回升、需求相对低位、港口库 | | | | | | 存步入累库通道的局面，供需过剩格局不变，介于短期情绪扰动，短期反 | | | | | | 弹为主，铁矿 2509 合约关注 740 元/吨一线能否有效突破。 | | | | | | 煤焦：供给侧改革消息扰动叠加唐山限产带动黑色价格上涨，原料跟涨。 ...

关注意信公众号 | *业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 容询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | 徐艺丹 Z0020017 | | | 铁矿石相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 仓单成本:卡粉 | 730.8 | 728.6 | 2.2 | 0.3% | | | 仓单成本:PB粉 | 766.7 | 764.5 | 2.2 | 0.3% | | | 仓单成本:巴混粉 | 777.1 | 775.0 | 2.2 | 0.3% | | | 仓单成本:金布巴粉 | 768.1 | 765.9 | 2.2 | 0.3% | | | 09合约基差:卡粉 | 49.2 | 39.1 | 10.1 | 25.8% | | | 09合约基差:PB粉 | 30.2 | 75.0 | -44.8 | -59.7% | 元/肥 | | 09合约基差:巴混粉 | 40.6 | 85.5 | -44.8 | -52.5% | | | 09合约基差:金布巴粉 | ...