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2025年下半年宏观、政策及资产配置展望:拨云见日-德邦证券
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-10 10:12
Group 1 - The core viewpoints presented in the strategy reports "Manufacturing Nation" and "Seeing the Dragon in the Field" highlight new trends and dynamics in the Chinese economy and industry, aiming to break the constraints on RMB assets [1][20] - The current macroeconomic environment is influenced by three main factors: external changes, internal trends, and policy shifts, which create uncertainties that complicate asset allocation strategies [1][20] - The U.S. political landscape is entering a new cycle, with the Trump administration implementing long-term strategies aimed at reshaping global distribution systems, which includes pressure on China and a push for "de-risking" [1][20] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of "self-reliance and diligent governance," advocating for confidence and breaking free from the "Thucydides Trap" narrative, while promoting initiatives for global cooperation and development [2][21] - It argues that the negative perceptions of China's development model and innovation capabilities need to be addressed, as global investors are beginning to reassess their views on China's economic development and institutional advantages [2][21] - The need for high-quality development is highlighted as a response to external uncertainties, with a focus on expanding high-level openness and stabilizing employment and market expectations [3][22] Group 3 - Key areas of focus for the second half of the year include the peak of U.S. tariffs, the survival of the European economy, and the resilience of the Japanese economy, alongside China's ability to achieve its 5% growth target for 2025 [4][22] - The report suggests that macroeconomic policies should not only focus on past measures but also prioritize innovation, industrial upgrades, and environmental protection, ensuring that economic benefits are shared among the population [3][22] - The asset allocation strategy should be "defensive and offensive," with attention to low inflation, technological advancements, and the importance of domestic policy variables [23][24]
不断推动构建人类命运共同体(深入学习贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想·访谈录)
Ren Min Wang· 2025-06-09 22:31
Group 1 - The concept of building a community with a shared future for mankind has been proposed for 12 years and has continuously evolved in theory and practice, yielding fruitful results [2][3] - The idea addresses significant global challenges such as geopolitical conflicts, climate change, and technological revolutions, emphasizing the need for global unity and cooperation [2][3] - The concept aligns with historical principles of international relations, including the principles established by the Treaty of Westphalia and the United Nations Charter, promoting equality and mutual respect among nations [4][5] Group 2 - China has positioned itself as a stabilizing force in the current global landscape, advocating for the building of a community with a shared future as a response to rising populism and isolationism [2][6] - The three global initiatives proposed by China—global development, global security, and global civilization—are interconnected and aim to address the pressing issues facing humanity [6][7][8] - The Belt and Road Initiative is highlighted as a practical measure to implement the concept, fostering cooperation and development across nations [9][10][11] Group 3 - The concept of a community with a shared future is seen as a response to the need for new international relations based on mutual respect, fairness, and win-win cooperation [12][13] - The emphasis on dialogue and understanding among civilizations is crucial for promoting peace and development, countering the narrative of "civilization clashes" [14][15] - The shared values of humanity, such as peace, development, fairness, justice, democracy, and freedom, are essential for building a community with a shared future [16][17][18] Group 4 - The vision of building "five worlds"—a world of lasting peace, universal security, common prosperity, openness and inclusiveness, and a clean and beautiful world—serves as a comprehensive framework for achieving the community with a shared future [19][20] - The initiatives and frameworks proposed by China are seen as a systematic approach to addressing global challenges and fostering international cooperation [20][21]
特朗普通告全球,必须交出“投降书”!越南突然被点名,中方态度明确
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-06 12:47
据央视新闻6月3日消息,美国政府近期将钢铝关税提至50%,并向多国施压要求限期提交贸易谈判方 案,引发国际社会广泛争议与担忧。 美国此轮关税政策呈现出鲜明的"极限施压"特征。自4月宣布面向全球的"对等关税"以来,特朗普政府 一方面将钢铝关税从25%翻倍至50%,另一方面以7月9日恢复高额关税为威胁,要求贸易伙伴在4日前 提交谈判方案。这种"软硬兼施"的策略,本质是试图通过制造紧迫感迫使各国在市场准入、供应链调整 等核心议题上让步。数据显示,美国当前实际关税水平已达1938年以来最高,若"对等关税"完全实施, 将创下19世纪90年代以来的峰值,这种突破历史区间的关税壁垒,直接冲击全球贸易体系的稳定性。 贸易往来(资料图) 从短期看,美国政策已对自身经济产生显著反噬。经合组织年内两次下调美国增长预期,将2025年经济 增速预测从年初的2.2%调至1.6%,2026年预测值也降至1.5%。制造业成为首当其冲的领域:5月制造业 PMI连续第三个月低于荣枯线,降至48.5%,企业信心指数更出现1976年有记录以来的最大单季跌幅, 从60点骤降至34点。小企业主普遍反映成本激增,俄亥俄州某电吉他踏板厂商因零部件进口成本上 ...
“坚定不移地追求设定的目标”(大道之行)
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-06-04 21:56
Group 1 - The World Leaders Alliance, established in 2001, consists of former heads of state and government from over 70 countries, aiming to bridge gaps in global social and political challenges through dialogue [2] - The Alliance has collaborated with the Chinese People's Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries to host the Chengdu International Forum for 10 years, emphasizing China's role in global governance [2] - Xi Jinping has consistently engaged with the forum, delivering video addresses and messages, highlighting China's commitment to global peace and cooperation [2][3] Group 2 - The 2023 Chengdu International Forum focused on the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind and three global initiatives proposed by Xi Jinping, which were extensively discussed by participants [2] - The forum concluded that China plays a crucial role as a key member of the United Nations and is essential in promoting global cooperation and improving global governance [2] - The 2024 Chengdu International Forum will be held in Madrid, marking the first time the forum takes place outside of China, further facilitating dialogue between China and the world [3]
德国财政部长克林贝尔:德国将在发展国际援助方面继续保持可靠的合作伙伴地位。我们无法就全球发展融资短缺问题进行双边补偿。
news flash· 2025-06-03 07:25
Core Viewpoint - Germany's Finance Minister, Christian Lindner, emphasized that Germany will continue to maintain its position as a reliable partner in international aid development, indicating a commitment to global financial support despite challenges in addressing financing shortages [1] Group 1 - Germany's commitment to international aid development is reaffirmed by the Finance Minister [1] - The statement highlights the inability to provide bilateral compensation for global development financing shortages [1]
中国为世界提供“稳”的定力、“进”的动力(挚友·中国政府友谊奖获得者系列报道)
塞浦路斯欧洲大学前校长、欧洲科学与艺术学院院士科斯塔斯·古利亚莫斯是中国的"老朋友"。多年 来,他深耕政治学、传播学研究,尤为关注中国政治文化与全球治理实践,并致力于推动中塞、中欧学 术合作与对话。2024年,科斯塔斯·古利亚莫斯获颁中国政府友谊奖。 规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.5%、规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长9.7%、装备制造业增加值 同比增长10.9%、规模以上工业中小企业增加值同比增长8.2%……一季度,中国新质生产力加快培育, 近日,古利亚莫斯接受本报记者专访,分享了对中国经济社会发展的深刻观察。他表示,中国高质量发 展不仅为自身现代化注入动能,更为动荡中的世界提供了"稳"的定力、"进"的动力。 "中国正以系统性的政策组合拳,稳当前、谋长远" 中国国家统计局数据显示,初步核算,一季度国内生产总值318758亿元,按不变价格计算,同比增长 5.4%,比上年四季度环比增长1.2%,国民经济实现良好开局。对此,古利亚莫斯表示,中国正通过政 策发力推动经济持续回升向好。 他表示,中国今年锚定5%左右的经济增长目标,既基于对国内外形势的科学研判,更彰显了推动高质 量发展的决心和信心。"今年是中国'十四 ...
2025山东国际友城合作交流周启动
Da Zhong Ri Bao· 2025-05-28 00:59
2025山东国际友城合作交流周启动 图普托阿 塔帕朗西 林武 周乃翔 葛慧君 王宇燕出席 2025山东国际友城合作交流周5月27日在济南启动。活动由山东省政府主办,主题为"携手同行 合 作发展"。 汤加外交大臣兼国防大臣图普托阿王储出席并致辞,泰国前副总理、泰中友好协会会长塔帕朗西出 席,省委书记林武致辞,省委副书记、省长周乃翔主持,省政协主席葛慧君,省委副书记、政法委书记 王宇燕出席。 携手同行 合作发展 林武在致辞时说,山东是中国的人口大省、文化大省、经济大省。当前,我们正深入贯彻落实习近 平主席视察山东重要讲话精神,锚定"走在前、挑大梁",稳扎稳打、踏踏实实做好各项工作,现代化强 省建设迈出坚实步伐。习近平主席高度重视友城工作,强调要大力开展中国国际友好城市工作,促进中 外地方政府交流,推动实现资源共享、优势互补、合作共赢。当前世界百年未有之大变局加速演进,作 为维护和平、促进发展的重要载体,友城的时代价值进一步凸显。我们希望以此次友城周为契机,与各 位朋友一道,共同践行全球发展倡议、全球安全倡议、全球文明倡议,携手共拓地方交流空间、共筑经 贸合作基石、共辟产业升级路径、共走绿色发展道路、共织民心相通纽 ...
擦亮“留学中国香港”这张教育名片
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-05-27 01:36
从国家与马来西亚、越南、柬埔寨等国的最新联合声明可以看出,内地的教育"走出去"并非单一层次, 而是涵盖从高等教育到职业教育,再到数字教育、语言文化交流等多个层面。例如,中国和马来西亚的 联合声明着重提出,要全面提升中马教育合作水平,还特别强调深化职业教育、联合科研与数字教育合 作。而中国和越南的联合声明以及中国和柬埔寨的联合声明,也都将深化职业教育、数字教育合作等列 为重要内容,并提及加强师生及学者交流。这是一种多层次、全覆盖的双边教育合作布局。 另外,从合作平台的搭建上,中马声明提及支持厦门大学与马来亚大学合作建设中马国际高等研究院、 北京大学与马来亚大学建设中马人工智能+新材料联合实验室,以及支持两国高校共建"一带一路"联合 实验室等。中柬声明提到,要共同办好鲁班工坊等职业教育合作项目。这些常态化的合作平台,不仅是 学术交流的载体,更是双边长期稳定合作的基石,有利于资源共享和成果转化。 至于促进人员的双向流动,特别是吸引国际学生来华,是内地教育国际化的又一重点。上述3份联合声 明普遍强调要鼓励双向留学,加强师生互访,并承诺提供政府奖学金以吸引优秀人才。中越声明更具体 地提出要合作培养培训越南本土中文教师, ...
传承胞波情谊 捍卫人间正道
人民网-国际频道 原创稿· 2025-05-22 08:31
Core Points - The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Myanmar leader Min Aung Hlaing emphasizes the commitment to uphold the UN-centered international system and international law, reflecting a shared stance against colonialism and hegemony among developing countries [1][5] - The historical ties between China and Myanmar are highlighted, particularly their joint efforts during World War II against foreign invasions, showcasing a deep-rooted friendship and cooperation [2][5] - The two countries have a history of promoting peace and cooperation, with Myanmar being one of the first countries to recognize the People's Republic of China and to resolve border issues peacefully [3][5] - Myanmar's support for China during its restoration of UN rights in 1971 is noted, illustrating the mutual support on the international stage [4] - The current era of cooperation is marked by a commitment to mutual assistance in times of crisis, such as natural disasters and the COVID-19 pandemic, reinforcing the notion of a shared destiny [5] Summary by Sections Historical Context - The historical memory of resistance against foreign invasion and the fight for national independence is a significant aspect of China-Myanmar relations, particularly during World War II [2] - The construction of the Burma Road during the war symbolizes the cooperation and sacrifices made by both nations [2] Diplomatic Relations - Myanmar was one of the first countries to recognize the new China and played a crucial role in promoting the principles of peaceful coexistence and non-alignment among developing nations [3] - The Bandung Conference in 1955 marked a significant moment for developing countries, advocating for unity and cooperation against colonialism [3] International Support - Myanmar's support for China's UN representation in 1971 is a key example of their diplomatic solidarity, with Myanmar's then-foreign minister playing a pivotal role [4] - China has actively participated in international affairs to protect the rights of developing countries, including Myanmar, since regaining its UN seat [4] Current Cooperation - The relationship has evolved into a comprehensive strategic partnership, with both countries supporting each other in various crises, including natural disasters and health emergencies [5] - The commitment to uphold the principles of peaceful coexistence and to advocate for the interests of developing countries is emphasized as both nations face global challenges [5]
“为实现减贫和可持续发展创造新机遇”
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-05-21 21:59
Core Points - The forum emphasizes China's commitment to poverty alleviation and sustainable development within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) framework, highlighting the importance of policy communication and practical cooperation among member states [1][5][6] Group 1: China's Role and Initiatives - China, as the rotating presidency of the SCO, aims to strengthen policy communication and share poverty alleviation experiences to help countries explore development paths suited to their national conditions [1][5] - The SCO is positioned as an ideal platform for promoting dialogue and cooperation on sustainable development goals, with China showcasing its responsible global leadership [6][5] Group 2: International Perspectives - Officials from various SCO member states, including Nepal and Kazakhstan, express optimism about China's poverty alleviation model, viewing it as a source of inspiration for collaborative development efforts [2][3] - The forum participants highlight the significance of China's experiences in precision poverty alleviation and sustainable development, which are particularly relevant for other SCO countries [2][3] Group 3: Practical Cooperation and Training - Several SCO countries are implementing pilot projects inspired by China's poverty alleviation strategies, such as solar energy initiatives and e-commerce training [2][3] - China has facilitated training programs for thousands of officials from SCO countries, focusing on areas like poverty alleviation, agriculture, and public management, enhancing their capabilities [3][4] Group 4: Future Directions - The SCO aims to enhance digital infrastructure, promote green technologies, and improve public service accessibility in remote areas to support the UN's 2030 sustainable development agenda [5][6] - The forum serves as a platform for sharing best practices and fostering cooperation in agriculture, technology, and infrastructure development among member states [4][5]