Core Viewpoint - The spokesperson of the Taiwan Affairs Office emphasizes that both mainland China and Taiwan belong to one China, which is an undeniable fact that cannot be avoided by any individual or political party in Taiwan [1] Group 1 - The insistence on the "1992 Consensus" is highlighted as a basis for dialogue and equal negotiation between both sides of the Taiwan Strait [1] - Denial of the "1992 Consensus" and deviation from the one China principle are seen as obstacles to dialogue and negotiation between the two sides [1]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasizes the importance of Chinese culture as a shared spiritual home for people across the Taiwan Strait, highlighting the need for cultural confidence and unity in the face of external challenges [1][2]. Group 1 - Wang Huning stated that Chinese culture is the root and soul of people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, and patriotism is the national spirit of the Chinese nation [1]. - The second Cross-Strait Chinese Culture Summit is seen as significant for promoting the shared cultural heritage and writing a new chapter in the history of the Chinese nation [1]. - The meeting calls for joint efforts to promote cultural exchanges and cooperation across various fields, fostering a sense of connection among compatriots [1]. Group 2 - This year marks the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the 80th anniversary of Taiwan's liberation [2]. - There is a strong emphasis on adhering to the One China principle and the "1992 Consensus," while firmly opposing "Taiwan independence" [2]. - Taiwanese guests expressed their confidence and pride in Chinese culture, advocating for strengthened cultural exchanges and promoting national unity and rejuvenation [2].

这实际上反映了法币体系的内在逻辑。 1971年布雷顿森林体系瓦解后，美元与黄金脱钩，美元对黄金的价值大幅贬值。 以1971年35美元/盎司为基准，2025年4月黄金价格一度超过3450美元/盎司，美元相对黄金贬值超99%。 各国货币失去了黄金锚定，通胀成为了政府征收的"隐形税"。 这背后的逻辑，也是比特币的金融学"第一性原理"之一。 2、黄金不产生有现金流，长周期没跑赢美国股市。 虽然黄金把美元秒成渣，但是-- 以1900年为基准，黄金的真实购买力基本维持不变； 而股市（如标普500）的真实回报率年化约7%。 从1801年至2014年，黄金涨到3倍，（美国）股票涨到100万倍。 这个对比揭示了黄金作为"价值储存"而非"增值工具"的本质。 1、上世纪70年代至今，美元相对黄金贬值99%。 但是过去数十年，黄金回报不错。参见下图。 1971年至2025年，黄金年化回报8.2%，标普500为7.8%，纳指为10.6%。 2005年底至2025年初，国际金价从每盎司500美元上涨至3350美元左右，年化回报率约为9.7%，同期标普500指数的年均涨幅为9.82%。 近5年，黄金年化收益率高达16.2%，标普500约为 ...

这个5月， AI coding（AI 编程）领域发生了不少标志性事件。 5月3日，苹果与初创公司Anthropic联手开发由AI驱动的Vibe Coding（氛围编程）平台；三天后，OpenAI被曝将以30亿美元收购AI编程新锐Windsurf；5月 17日，OpenAI又推出集成于ChatGPT的Codex智能体，实现自动生成、调试和优化代码；美团在5月20日宣布将上线一款AI编程类工具"NoCode"，则为这 场竞赛注入 "中国变量"。 可以说，在全球范围内，AI coding工具正爆发式涌现。从GitHub Copilot，到火爆出圈的Cursor、Devin，再到国内字节推出的Trae、阿里发布的通义灵 码，在大模型的助推下，AI coding正在从单纯的 代码补全 向更为 智能化、一站式 的方向演进。未来，AI coding能否实现 执行完整编程任务 的雄心？AI coding将沿着何种路径演进，最终又将去向何方？ 在「What's Next｜科技早知道」的播客节目中，峰瑞资本投资合伙人 陈石 和「声动活泼」联合创始人&「科技早知道」主播 丁教Diane ，以及「科技早 知道」节目监制 雅娴 ，围绕 ...

Group 1: Election Outcomes - Portugal's election results align with expert predictions, with the far-right Chega party increasing its seats by 12, becoming the third-largest party in parliament, while the current center-right government maintains a minority status [1][2] - In Romania, the pro-European centrist candidate, Nicușor Dan, won decisively with 54% of the vote amidst a 65% voter turnout, thwarting far-right aspirations [2] - Poland's election saw the incumbent government's candidate narrowly winning with 31.4%, while right-wing and far-right candidates collectively secured over 50% of the votes, indicating strong public dissatisfaction with the current government [2] Group 2: Political Landscape and Trends - The three elections reflect a growing political instability in Europe, characterized by the exhaustion of neoliberal globalization benefits, high inflation, low growth, and rising immigration issues [3] - Political polarization is accelerating, driven by social media's "echo chamber effect," leading to a vicious cycle of frequent elections and political deadlock in Europe [3][10] - Trust in mainstream parties is declining, with radical forces increasingly occupying the political stage, resulting in fragmented parliamentary structures that hinder effective governance [3][12] Group 3: Theoretical Perspectives on Political Polarization - Political polarization is defined as the increasing alignment of the public towards the extremes of the political spectrum, exacerbated by the 2008 economic crisis and the shortcomings of democratic institutions [4][10] - The neoliberal economic model, which prioritizes market efficiency, is identified as a significant catalyst for political polarization, leading to the alienation of various social groups [5][6] - The rise of social media has transformed political engagement into a data-driven process, further entrenching polarization through algorithmic reinforcement of group identities [7][8] Group 4: Implications for European Integration - The fragmentation of political power in Europe undermines the legitimacy of traditional parties and complicates the formation of stable governments, leading to frequent elections and political instability [13][14] - The decline of consensus politics and the rise of populism indicate a shift away from established political norms, with both left and right populist movements gaining traction [15][16] - The future of European integration appears bleak, as member states increasingly prioritize national interests over collective European goals, diminishing the EU's influence on the global stage [17][18]

Group 1 - The meeting between the head of the General Administration of Customs, Sun Meijun, and Venezuelan Foreign Minister, Jorge Arreaza, focused on implementing the consensus reached by the leaders of China and Venezuela [1] - Discussions included promoting trade in high-quality agricultural and food products as part of the outcomes from the fourth ministerial meeting of the China-Latin America Forum [1] - The Venezuelan Ambassador to China, Sevarios, also participated in the meeting, indicating the importance of diplomatic relations in enhancing trade [1]

Group 1 - The DPP administration under Lai Ching-te has heightened cross-strait tensions and undermined peace in the Taiwan Strait, being labeled as a "peace destroyer" and "crisis creator" [1] - Lai's refusal to acknowledge the "1992 Consensus" and his promotion of "Taiwan independence" narratives have led to increased division and hostility, impacting cross-strait exchanges [1] - The DPP's energy policy, particularly the push for a "nuclear-free homeland," has resulted in frequent power outages and rising electricity prices, with a reported five price increases in four years, totaling nearly a 50% increase [2] Group 2 - Recent large-scale power outages in Taiwan, including 35 incidents in April 2024 alone, have raised public concern over the DPP's energy policies [2] - The DPP's economic policies are criticized for neglecting public welfare and failing to address structural economic challenges, which could be alleviated through enhanced cross-strait economic cooperation [2] - The DPP administration's actions are seen as detrimental to the interests of Taiwanese businesses and citizens, leading to widespread dissatisfaction [2]

经过在瑞士日内瓦持续两天的高层会谈，中美两国在经贸领域达成重要共识。中美共识对彼此和世界经 济的影响如何？ 5月13日，瑞士日内瓦伯尔尼大区经济发展署前署长菲利普·莫尼耶接受总台环球资讯广播记者独家专 访。 0:00 我认为，一方面由于双边关税税率有非常大幅度的下降，影响是积极的。而对于企业来说，比低关税更 重要的是确定性。企业需要知道在三个月后会发生什么。在许多商业决策当中，比如在美投资建厂，需 要花费很多时间。他们需要知道的不仅仅是接下来的九十天、两年或四年会发生什么，但就美国而言， 目前的情况仍是不确定的。 我认为（中美共识）肯定为（欧美）树立了先例，现在对欧盟和美国达成类似共识的期望非常高，而且 也确实很有可能达成。但（欧美之间）同样也存在不确定性的问题。在我看来目标不仅是降低关税，还 要确保投资能够尽可能顺畅地进行。最重要的是让企业放心，当前的解决方案是长期的。我认为（英美 之间的）协议不算出色，但肯定比没有协议要好。当然它也会对欧盟和美国之间的谈判产生影响。 记者｜汪一鸣 编辑｜陈濛 签审｜邹浩宇 监制｜关娟娟 根据中美之间达成的共识，接下来双方还将开展进一步磋商。后续磋商的重点和前景如何？ 菲利 ...

国台办：美方应恪守一个中国原则和中美三个联合公报规定 反对"台独" 金十数据5月14日讯，5月14日，国务院台办举行例行新闻发布会。国务院台办发言人陈斌华表示，近期 有越来越多的外国媒体及专家学者发声，对赖清德"台独"挑衅的极端危险性、危害性表示担忧和谴责。 当前台海形势复杂严峻，根源在于赖清德当局拒不承认体现一个中国原则的"九二共识"，勾连外部势力 大肆进行谋"独"挑衅。陈斌华强调，台湾问题纯属中国内政，解决台湾问题是两岸中国人自己的事。美 方应恪守一个中国原则和中美三个联合公报规定，反对"台独"。 （央视新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion led by Professor Lin Yifu emphasizes the resilience and potential of the Chinese economy, countering the "China collapse theory" with data and insights on growth prospects and structural reforms [2][3]. Economic Growth and Development - From 1978 to 2024, China's average annual GDP growth rate is 8.3%, making it the only major economy without a systemic financial crisis during this period [2]. - By 2024, China's per capita GDP is projected to exceed $13,000, nearing the World Bank's high-income threshold [2]. - Lin Yifu categorizes China's development into two phases: the first focused on heavy industry, which laid the foundation but caused efficiency losses, and the second, post-1978, which shifted to labor-intensive industries, enabling rapid industrialization [2]. Reform and Innovation - The dual-track system is presented as a rational choice during the transition period, balancing economic stability with market development [2]. - China's gradual reform approach has created a 40-year growth miracle, contrasting with the "shock therapy" faced by many transitioning economies [2]. Future Growth Potential - Using a model based on the 2019 Sino-U.S. technology gap, China is expected to maintain an 8% growth potential until 2035, with actual growth rates projected between 5% and 6% [3]. - By 2049, even with a reduced potential of 6%, actual growth rates of 3% to 4% are still anticipated [3]. - Key supporting factors for this growth include an annual influx of 11 million university graduates, a large domestic market of 1.4 billion people, and a comprehensive industrial system [3]. Strategic Outlook - Lin Yifu envisions a future where China's GDP reaches half of the U.S. level, fundamentally altering the technology dependency dynamics between the two nations [3]. - He advises maintaining strategic focus amidst current trade tensions, asserting that China's innovation capabilities will ultimately strengthen its economic position [3]. Structural Challenges and Solutions - To address consumption challenges, Lin Yifu suggests increasing the share of resident income, enhancing social security, and promoting common prosperity [4]. - The integration of new urbanization and rural revitalization strategies is expected to unleash significant domestic demand potential [4]. Academic Perspective - Lin Yifu's balanced approach combines rational analysis of achievements with acknowledgment of structural issues, reflecting an objective academic stance [5]. - The ongoing dialogue and updates to his work illustrate the commitment to understanding and navigating the complexities of the Chinese economy [5].