济南统筹推进提升城市建设品质，在城市更新方面，今年已启动项目80个，完成年度投资160.6亿元， 高新区舜泰广场智慧停车项目等2个案例成功入选住建部典型案例。在城中村改造方面，今年已启动项 目51个，完成年度投资144.6亿元。持续提升燃气设施安全水平，已完成20.9万户燃气报警系统更新；扩 大集中供热覆盖面积，开工400万平方米集中供热配套项目，目前已完工197万平方米。6月，济南市成 功入围2025年度中央财政支持实施城市更新行动，将为城市建设带来新动能。 会上，济南市住房城乡建设局党组书记、局长亓伟介绍，济南多措并举稳控房地产市场，先后举办2025 山东省暨济南市高品质住宅展示交易会、住福万家 安居齐鲁2025济南市夏季购房节，发放5000万元住 房消费券，有力带动销售；联合多部门开展"促进住房领域消费专项行动"，从动态优化调控政策、稳步 提升住宅品质、优化服务监管等23个方面联合发力，共同促进住房消费；5月底，推出"卖旧买新"政 策，对符合条件的予以总房款0.8%-1%的购房补贴，进一步激发消费潜力。开展市级高品质住宅项目申 报评选，累计申报56个项目。以"济钢片区"智想城项目为核心，打造高品质居住示 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the demand for improved housing in Guangdong's new housing market will continue to be released in 2024, with a stabilization and recovery of rigid demand [1] - In 2024, 100 typical real estate companies in Guangdong will see an increase in the number of foreign and state-owned enterprises, while local companies will concentrate in the Guangzhou and Shenzhen areas [1] - The total land acquisition amount in Guangzhou is the highest at 76.7 billion, followed by Shenzhen at 51 billion, and Foshan in third place [1] Group 2 - The report states that typical real estate companies will account for 73.1% of the total sales in Guangdong, with total sales amounting to approximately 869.8 billion [1] - The sales of rigid housing units below 90 square meters accounted for 26.8% of transactions, showing a year-on-year increase of 1 percentage point, indicating a stabilization [1] - The report suggests that typical real estate companies should focus on core advantages, activate existing assets, expand light asset businesses, and embrace technological changes for digital transformation [2]

房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 7 月 1 日 强于大市 房地产行业第 26 周周报（2025 年 6 月 21 日-2025 年 6 月 27 日） 本周新房成交同比降幅扩大；将消费品以旧换新与城市更新 行动有机结合 新房成交面积环比涨幅扩大，同比降幅扩大。二手房成交面积环比由正转负，同比降幅收窄。 新房库存面积与去化周期同环比均下降。 核心观点 政策 投资建议： 风险提示： 房地产调控升级；销售超预期下行；融资收紧。 相关研究报告 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 房地产 证券分析师：夏亦丰 (8621)20328348 yifeng.xia@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070005 证券分析师：许佳璐 (8621)20328710 jialu.xu @bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110002 新房成交面积环比涨幅扩大，同比降幅扩大。40 个城市新房成交面积为 336.6 万平，环比 上升 37.0%，同比下降 25.7%，同比降幅较上周扩大了 15.5 个百分点。一、二、三四线 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the current policy environment recognizes the necessity of a stable and healthy real estate market for economic transformation, suggesting a potential turning point in the current cycle [9] - The new housing market shows a significant increase in transaction volume, while the second-hand housing market is experiencing a slight decline [4][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of developing a new model for real estate growth, tailored to local conditions, to better promote high-quality economic development [4] Summary by Sections 1. Sector View - The report recommends strong local state-owned enterprises and quality private enterprises in real estate development, such as China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group, while suggesting to pay attention to Greentown China [9] - In property management, companies with strong market expansion capabilities and service diversification are highlighted as having long-term investment value, recommending China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Service, Poly Property, and Yuexiu Service [9] - For real estate brokerage, the report notes that the second-hand housing market has been recovering since August 2022, with a recommendation for leading companies like Beike and a suggestion to pay attention to Wo Ai Wo Jia [10] 2. Real Estate Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - New housing sales in 36 cities increased by 39.5% week-on-week but decreased by 31.0% year-on-year, with a total of 5043.6 million square meters sold year-to-date, down 4.0% year-on-year [14] - The second-hand housing market saw a slight decline in transaction volume, with a total of 4020.3 million square meters sold year-to-date, up 18.1% year-on-year [20] - The inventory of new homes in 13 cities stands at 7849.6 million square meters, with a de-stocking period of 20.2 months [30] 3. Land Market Situation - The report notes that from June 23 to June 29, 2025, the land transaction area in 100 cities was 1783.7 million square meters, down 23.0% month-on-month and down 55.6% year-on-year [50] - The average land price was 1586 RMB per square meter, reflecting a decrease of 23.8% month-on-month and 19.0% year-on-year [50] - Cumulative land transaction area for 2025 is 52061.3 million square meters, down 7.4% year-on-year [50] 4. Financing Situation - In the domestic credit bond market, real estate companies issued a total of 64.8 billion RMB in bonds last week, a decrease of 37.4% week-on-week [53] - The net financing amount for the week was -49.4 billion RMB, indicating a challenging financing environment [53] - Year-to-date, real estate companies have issued a total of 2299.7 billion RMB in credit bonds, up 7.1% year-on-year [53] 5. Market Review - The real estate sector saw a weekly increase of 3.3%, outperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices, which increased by 2.0% and 3.6%, respectively [58]

——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 总量研究/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 6 月 26 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 | 表 | | 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 | | 6 | 月 26 | 日） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 新房（6 | 月 | 1 日-6 月 | 26 日） | 二手房（6 | 月 | 1 日-6 月 | 26 日） | | | 城市能级 | 同比 | | 较 5 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | | 较 | 5 月 | | 样本城市 | -14% | -扩大 | -1 PCT | 样本城市 | -1% | -收窄 | | +11 PCT | | （39 城） | | | | （16 城） | | | | | | 一线城市 | -3% | 转负 | -10 PCT | 一线城市 | 9% | +收窄 | | -1 PCT | | （4 城） | | | | （2 城） | | | | | | 二线城市 | -12% | -收 ...

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈鹏 (8621)23297818× chenpeng@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 06 月 29 日 加快构建新发展模式，一二手成交 周环比回升 看好 ——地产及物管行业周报（2025/06/21-2025/06/27） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 告 房地产 ⚫ 地产行业数据：一二手房成交环比回升，新房成交推盘比下降。 上周（25/6/21- 25/6/27）34 个重点城市新房合计成交 379 万平米，环比+51%；其中，一二线环比 +56%、三四线环比-0.2%；6 月一手房月成交同比-13%，较 5 月-3.5pct；其中，一二线 同比-11%、三四线同比-26%，分别较 5 月-1pct 和-32pct。上周 13 个重点城市二手房成 交 ...

周观点：央行强调加大收储推进力度 央行召开 2025 年第二季度例会，房地产层面，会议要求着力推动已 出台金融政策措施落地见效，加大存量商品房和存量土地盘活力度， 持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势，完善房地产金融基础性制度，助力构 建房地产发展新模式。 我们认为，在当前 5、6 月，房地产复苏动能减弱，市场下行压力增 加的背景下，7 月将迎来新一轮的政策宽松周期，今年以来出台的包 括收储、城中村改造及对房企的融资宽松政策，预计在三季度将加大 实施力度，助力行业止跌回稳。建议关注困境反转类房企：金地集团、 新城控股等；保持拿地强度的龙头招商蛇口、绿城中国、保利发展、 滨江集团等；多元经营稳健发展的地方国企浦东金桥、外高桥等。 销售回顾（6.21-6.27） 重点监测 32 城合计成交总套数为 2.4 万套，环比上周增长 41%；2025 年累计成交总套数为 40.6 万套，累计同比下降 4.6%。其中，一线城 市成交 6085 套，环比上周增长 36.2%，2025 年累计成交 11.6 万套， 累计同比增长 9.6%；二线城市成交 15455 套，环比上周增长 47.4%， 2025 年累计成交 24.2 万套，累 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing initial signs of stabilization and recovery in the first half of 2025, although the underlying foundation remains fragile. A series of policies initiated since last year have contributed to a notable rebound in the market, particularly in core first- and second-tier cities, despite some fluctuations in sales and prices in April and May [2][3][7]. Policy Measures - The State Council's meeting on June 13 emphasized the need for a comprehensive assessment of existing land and ongoing projects in the real estate sector, aiming to optimize current policies and enhance their effectiveness to stabilize expectations, activate demand, and mitigate risks [3][9]. - The 2025 real estate policy framework focuses on stabilizing expectations, promoting demand, optimizing supply, and preventing risks through financial support, demand stimulation, and revitalization of existing resources [11][12]. Market Performance - From January to May 2025, new residential sales area and sales revenue decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively, but the decline was significantly less than in 2024, indicating a recovery trend [7]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties decreased to 77.427 million square meters by the end of May 2025, marking a continuous decline for three months [8]. Land Market Activity - The land market in core cities has shown signs of recovery, with significant transactions occurring in cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou, despite a national decline in land transaction volume [9]. Housing Supply and Demand - Local governments are implementing measures to relax purchase restrictions, provide subsidies, and optimize public housing policies to stimulate demand [12][13]. - The housing provident fund policies have been adjusted to lower interest rates and expand usage, enhancing affordability for homebuyers [13]. New Development Model - The shift towards a new real estate development model emphasizes a balanced approach to housing supply, focusing on quality and service rather than just speed and scale [16][19]. - The government is promoting urban renewal as a key strategy to revitalize existing assets and support long-term operational models in the real estate sector [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry in 2025 is facing significant challenges, including financing difficulties and the need for debt restructuring among property companies, while the government is implementing more proactive fiscal policies to stabilize the market [1][2][3]. Financing and Debt Restructuring - Financing difficulties remain prominent, with property companies' financing in the first half of 2025 reaching 184.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 30% [7]. - The approval of "white list" loans for real estate has increased, with 6.7 trillion approved by May 2025, indicating some marginal improvement in financing support [3][5]. - The cost of offshore bond financing for property companies in the first half of 2025 was 8.60%, while domestic bond financing costs decreased to 2.71% [9][10]. - The total debt maturity for property companies in 2025 is projected to be 532.7 billion, with the third quarter being a peak repayment period [14]. Government Policies and Market Stabilization - The government is maintaining a loose monetary policy and has proposed a special bond issuance of 4.4 trillion for local governments, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [3][5]. - Urban renewal is a key focus for 2025, with significant progress in the renovation of old urban areas, with 5,679 projects initiated in the first four months [4][17]. - The government emphasizes the need for a new sustainable development model in the real estate sector, with urban renewal as a critical strategy [17]. Industry Outlook and Opportunities - The successful debt restructuring of companies like Xiexin and Jinke provides a model for other struggling firms, indicating a potential path for industry-wide risk mitigation [13][16]. - The ongoing urban renewal efforts are expected to create new opportunities for capable property companies, encouraging them to enhance housing quality and competitiveness [17].

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen-based company Shen Zhen Zhen Ye A has successfully acquired land use rights in Guangming District for a total price of RMB 1.994 billion, indicating active participation in the local real estate market [1][2]. Group 1: Land Acquisition Details - Shen Zhen Zhen Ye A, in collaboration with Qianhai Tianjian Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. and Jianchen Development Co., Ltd., won the bidding for a land parcel in Guangming District, Shenzhen, with a total area of 34,995.97 square meters and a building area of 108,487 square meters [1]. - The land is designated for residential use with a usage period of 70 years and a plot ratio of ≤3.1 [1]. Group 2: Shareholding Structure - The shareholding distribution for the land acquisition is as follows: Shen Zhen Zhen Ye A holds 40%, Qianhai Tianjian 30%, and Jianchen Development 30% [2]. - Shen Zhen Zhen Ye A is primarily controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Shenzhen Municipal Government, which holds a direct stake of 21.93% [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In 2024, Shen Zhen Zhen Ye A reported a revenue increase of 115.79% to RMB 6.065 billion, while the first quarter of 2025 saw a staggering 540.28% increase to RMB 1.618 billion [2]. - Despite the revenue growth, the company recorded losses of RMB 1.568 billion in 2024 and RMB 25.94 million in the first quarter of 2025 [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company aims to focus on innovation and reform, optimizing its investment layout in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and accelerating project turnover to ensure stable cash flow [3]. - Shen Zhen Zhen Ye A plans to explore new business areas, including urban village renovation, to promote sustainable and healthy development [3]. Group 5: Market Position - As of June 27, the stock price of Shen Zhen Zhen Ye A was reported at RMB 6.69 per share, with a total market capitalization of RMB 9.031 billion [4].