｜2025年7月17日 星期四｜ 每经记者｜杨建 每经编辑｜肖芮冬 NO.1 何立峰：中国将做全球产业链供应链互利共赢的推动者 据新华社报道，第三届中国国际供应链促进博览会于7月16日在京开幕。何立峰指出，中国是全球产业 链供应链的重要环节，一直以实际行动保障全球产业链供应链稳定运行，为深化全球产业链供应链合 作、促进世界经济复苏贡献力量。何立峰强调，中国将坚持分工协作、开放包容，做全球产业链供应链 互利共赢的推动者，促进全球产业链供应链数字化、智能化、绿色化转型升级。 NO.2 国常会：研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作 据央视新闻报道，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工 作。会议指出，做强国内大循环是推动经济行稳致远的战略之举。要找准关键着力点，深入实施提振消 费专项行动，系统清理制约居民消费的不合理限制，优化消费品以旧换新政策，顺应居民消费需求增加 多元化供给，扩大新质生产力、新兴服务业等领域投资，把内需潜力充分释放出来，不断增强国内大循 环内生动力。要聚焦突出问题，提高政策精准度和可操作性，加强部门间协同配合，汇聚政策落实的合 力，加快破解制约国内大循环的堵 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. Core Views of the Report - The short - term gold price is in a volatile state, and the dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term. The stock market needs to observe the Politburo meeting's positioning of the domestic economy and forward - looking policies. The CBOT soybeans rose due to private sales and the Indonesia - US agreement, and the market is concerned about US tariff policies. Various commodities have different price trends and influencing factors, such as steel prices oscillating weakly, coal prices remaining seasonally strong, and copper prices potentially under short - term pressure [11][15][18][25]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US June PPI annual rate was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, and the monthly rate was 0%. Gold fluctuated sharply due to the news of Trump potentially firing Powell. The fundamentals lack positive factors for gold, and the short - term gold price is in a volatile range. Investment advice is that the short - term gold price will oscillate with increased volatility [10][11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - Fed officials believe the current restrictive monetary policy is appropriate. The Fed's Beige Book shows a slight economic uptick with high uncertainty. Trump denied firing Powell, but the dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term [13][15][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council executive meeting studied policies to strengthen the domestic cycle. On July 17, the stock market was flat at a high level with low trading volume. The market needs to observe the Politburo meeting's stance. Investment advice is to allocate stock indices evenly [18][19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US banks' performance grew steadily, but the investment banking business was under short - term pressure. The Fed's Beige Book showed a slight economic increase. The market's risk appetite is supported, but risks from Trump's policies exist. The stock index is expected to oscillate, and investors should control their positions carefully [20][22][23]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Private exporters sold 120,000 tons of soybeans, and Indonesia will buy $4.5 billion of US agricultural products, causing CBOT soybeans to rise. The market is concerned about US tariff policies. The domestic and foreign futures prices are oscillating, and the market should monitor US soybean production area weather and tariff policies [24][25][26]. 2.2 Ferrous Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel price is oscillating weakly. The probability of over - expected policy stimulus is low. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Investment advice is to use a rebound hedging strategy for the spot market [27][28][29]. 2.3 Ferrous Metals (Steam Coal) - High - temperature weather supports coal consumption, and the coal price is expected to remain seasonally strong [30]. 2.4 Ferrous Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore price is oscillating at a high level. The supply is not expected to increase significantly this year, and the demand is under pressure. The price is difficult to break through the $100 resistance level [31][32]. 2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The Middle East will impose tariffs on Chinese lead - acid battery enterprises. The lead price is falling, but the price center of Shanghai lead is expected to rise. Investment advice includes looking for short - term buying opportunities and considering internal - external inverse arbitrage [33][34][35]. 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Vedanta's zinc concentrate production increased in Q2 2025. The zinc price oscillated widely. The zinc market is under pressure, and investment advice includes short - term short - selling, positive arbitrage in the long - term month spread, and internal - external positive arbitrage [36][38]. 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwe plans to build a lithium ore processing plant. The supply side of lithium carbonate has uncertainties. The price is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term. Investment advice is to look for short - term long - buying and positive arbitrage opportunities [39][40]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Kazakhstan will restrict non - ferrous metal exports and resume gallium production. The copper price may be under short - term pressure. Investment advice is to take a bearish approach for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage [41][45]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia will shorten the mining quota period from 2026. The nickel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term and decline in the medium term. Investment advice is to look for short - selling opportunities [46][47]. 2.10 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The PDH unit of Guoheng stopped due to a malfunction. US C3 inventory increased, and the domestic market is weakly oscillating with insufficient upward momentum [48][49][50]. 2.11 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased, but gasoline and refined oil inventories increased. The oil price fell slightly. The short - term oil price is expected to oscillate [51][52][53]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong remained stable. The supply increased, and the demand was good. It is difficult for the price to continue rising [54][55]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is weakening. The upward space of the pulp price is limited [56]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder decreased. The PVC market followed the rebound but has limited upward potential due to inventory changes [57][58]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories are implementing production cuts. The supply pressure will be relieved, and investors can look for opportunities to expand processing fees [59][60]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weakly stable. The supply is high, and the demand is average. Investment advice is to short - sell at high prices in the medium term [61]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass decreased slightly. The glass market is weak, and investment advice includes considering cross - variety arbitrage [62][63]. 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The Port of Long Beach will expand. The freight rate of the European line's 10 - contract retreated after rising. The 08 - contract's oscillation range moved up, but there are potential negative factors [64][65].

上半年的影响因素、消费态势在下半年将会持续。同时，消费政策还会继续加力，下半年刺激消费补贴 政策已经在陆续出台，各地将继续出台相关措施促消费。盛来运表示，消费要持续健康发展必须要提高 居民收入水平，要进一步改善消费环境。在这些方面，中央政策以及相关部门出台的措施都在继续推 进，各地还要进一步落实好中央扩内需政策要求，按照消费提升行动方案部署，进一步"稳就业、促增 收"，改善消费环境，增加优质消费供给，推动消费市场持续健康发展。 盛来运表示，从下半年情况看，尽管外部环境还有不少的不确定性，内部结构调整的压力较大，但综合 判断，下半年中国经济保持稳定增长是有支撑的。 首先，上半年经济稳中有进的发展态势和成效，为完成全年目标打下了较好基础。上半年，中国经济顶 住压力、稳定增长，保持稳中有进、稳中向好的发展态势，充分展示了中国经济的抗压能力和强大韧 性，这种发展态势会得以保持，为完成预期目标打下了扎实基础。 其次，多年来高质量发展大势和实践，凝聚了共识，积累了新动能，推进了经济再平衡，提高了经济可 持续发展能力。党的十八大以来，我国坚定不移推进经济转型和高质量发展，推动中国经济取得历史性 成就、发生历史性变革。现在， ...

Economic Policy - The State Council's executive meeting emphasized strengthening the domestic circulation as a strategic move to promote stable economic growth, focusing on boosting consumption and optimizing policies to release domestic demand potential [1][2] - The Ministry of Commerce announced a policy to encourage foreign investors to reinvest distributed profits in China through tax incentives, aiming to stabilize investment expectations and reduce costs [4] Market Developments - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is discussing shortening the settlement cycle for the stock market from T+2 to T+1, aligning with global trends where 88% of stock markets are expected to adopt T+1 or T+0 by the end of 2027 [2][3] - The national maximum electricity load reached a record high of 15.06 billion kilowatts, an increase of 0.55 billion kilowatts compared to last year [3] Automotive and Retail Sector - From July 1 to 13, retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 571,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 7%, while cumulative retail sales for the year reached 11.47 million units, up 11% [3] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles during the same period were 332,000 units, marking a 26% year-on-year increase, with a penetration rate of 58.1% [3] Company News - Taiji Group announced a share buyback plan of between 80 million and 120 million yuan, with a maximum buyback price of 28.03 yuan per share [5] - Postal Savings Bank plans to invest 10 billion yuan to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary, which will not significantly impact its financial status [5] - Wuzhou Zhongheng Group intends to acquire 100% equity of Huzhou South Taihu Power Technology Co., a mature enterprise in the cogeneration sector, for 1.457 billion yuan [6] - Shankai Intelligent's actual controller will change to the Wuhan New District People's Government, with stock resuming trading on July 17 [6] Industry Insights - CITIC Securities reports that with ongoing reforms in the electricity market and the establishment of a capacity pricing mechanism, investment certainty in domestic energy storage projects will significantly increase, leading to continued high growth in installed capacity [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance and urgency of strengthening the domestic circulation as a strategic move to promote stable and sustainable economic growth [1] - In the first half of the year, domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52%, highlighting its role as the main driver of economic growth [1] - The meeting outlined targeted measures to fully unleash domestic demand potential and enhance the endogenous driving force of the domestic circulation [1][2] Group 2 - The "old-for-new" consumption policy is identified as a key point for expanding domestic demand, with plans for the third batch of funding to be allocated and implemented throughout the year [2] - The meeting stressed the need for precise and actionable policies, inter-departmental collaboration, and addressing bottlenecks that hinder domestic circulation [2] - Strengthening domestic circulation is described as a systematic project requiring coordinated policy efforts and a long-term mechanism for effective implementation [2]

Economic Overview - In the first half of the year, China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% at constant prices [1] - The external environment has become increasingly complex and severe, but proactive macro policies have shown effectiveness, leading to a stable and positive economic trend [1] Economic Stability - The GDP growth rates were 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, indicating a steady economic performance [2] - The average urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from Q1 [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a slight decline, but rose in June after four consecutive months of decrease [2] - The total import and export volume reached a record high for the same period [2] Consumption Trends - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth in the first half of the year [5] - The total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 24.55 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5% [5] - There is an increasing share of service consumption, with holiday consumption playing a significant role and a rise in upgraded consumption and green consumption trends [5] Innovation and New Industries - The number of effective invention patent applications reached nearly 5 million from January to May, growing by 12.8% [6] - The digital economy is rapidly developing, with its core industries accounting for about 10% of GDP [6] - The service sector plays a crucial stabilizing role, and green industries are thriving, contributing to improved economic circulation [6] Domestic Demand and Policy Support - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth in the first half of the year [8] - A series of policies have been introduced to strengthen domestic circulation, expand demand, and promote production [8] Future Outlook - The year marks the conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the preparation for the 15th Five-Year Plan, with expectations for China's economy to provide more stability and certainty to the global economy [10]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of strengthening domestic circulation as a strategic move to promote stable economic growth. Key actions include implementing consumption-boosting initiatives, removing unreasonable restrictions on consumer spending, and optimizing trade-in policies for consumer goods [1] - There is a focus on addressing prominent issues to enhance policy precision and operability, as well as improving inter-departmental collaboration to resolve bottlenecks in domestic circulation [1] - The meeting highlighted the need for effective audit rectification as a means to enhance government credibility and execution. Responsibilities for rectification must be clearly assigned to audited units, with a focus on timely and thorough compliance [2] Group 2 - The meeting discussed the high-quality development of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, addressing irrational competition and emphasizing the need for comprehensive measures to regulate market order [2] - It was noted that there should be enhanced cost investigation and price monitoring within the NEV sector, along with supervision of production consistency and enforcement of payment commitments by key manufacturers [2] - The establishment of a long-term mechanism for regulating competition in the NEV industry was emphasized, promoting industry self-discipline and guiding enterprises to enhance competitiveness through technological innovation and quality improvement [2]

Group 1: Domestic Circulation and Consumption - The meeting emphasized the importance of strengthening domestic circulation as a strategic move for stable economic growth, focusing on key action points to boost consumption [1][4] - Specific measures include implementing special actions to stimulate consumption, removing unreasonable restrictions on consumer spending, and optimizing the trade-in policy for consumer goods [4][5] - The government aims to enhance investment in new production capabilities and emerging service industries to fully unleash domestic demand potential [4] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Industry - The meeting addressed the need to regulate the competitive order within the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, which has been experiencing irrational competition [2][7] - Measures proposed include strengthening cost investigations, price monitoring, and ensuring compliance with payment commitments from major automotive companies [7] - The focus is on establishing a long-term mechanism for fair competition and encouraging technological innovation to enhance competitiveness [7][8] Group 3: Service Consumption - Service consumption is identified as a key area for boosting overall consumption and expanding domestic demand, with a significant emphasis on improving supply in this sector [5] - The People's Bank of China has allocated 500 billion yuan for service consumption and elderly care loans to support high-quality supply in sectors like hospitality, tourism, and education [5] - Experts suggest that relaxing restrictions such as car purchase limits could effectively release consumer potential and stimulate spending [5][6]

审议通过《国务院关于修改〈中华人民共和国外国人入境出境管理条例〉的决定（草案）》 国务院总理李强7月16日主持召开国务院常务会议，研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工 作，听取关于2024年度中央预算执行和其他财政收支审计查出问题初步整改情况的汇报，听 取规范新能源汽车产业竞争秩序情况的汇报，审议通过《国务院关于修改〈中华人民共和国 外国人入境出境管理条例〉的决定（草案）》。 来源：新华社 会议指出，做强国内大循环是推动经济行稳致远的战略之举。要找准关键着力点，深入实施 提振消费专项行动，系统清理制约居民消费的不合理限制，优化消费品以旧换新政策，顺应 居民消费需求增加多元化供给，扩大新质生产力、新兴服务业等领域投资，把内需潜力充分 释放出来，不断增强国内大循环内生动力。要聚焦突出问题，提高政策精准度和可操作性， 加强部门间协同配合，汇聚政策落实的合力，加快破解制约国内大循环的堵点卡点。有关部 门要进一步优化政策设计，认真听取各方面意见建议，积极帮助地方和企业解决困难、促进 发展，齐心协力推动经济持续向好。 李强主持召开国务院常务会议 会议指出，审计整改是发挥审计监督作用的重要一环，事关政府公信力和执行力。对审 ...

国常会：深入实施提振消费专项行动，优化消费品以旧换新政策 金十数据7月16日讯，李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作。会 议指出，做强国内大循环是推动经济行稳致远的战略之举。要找准关键着力点，深入实施提振消费专项 行动，系统清理制约居民消费的不合理限制，优化消费品以旧换新政策，顺应居民消费需求增加多元化 供给，扩大新质生产力、新兴服务业等领域投资，把内需潜力充分释放出来，不断增强国内大循环内生 动力。要聚焦突出问题，提高政策精准度和可操作性，加强部门间协同配合，汇聚政策落实的合力，加 快破解制约国内大循环的堵点卡点。有关部门要进一步优化政策设计，认真听取各方面意见建议，积极 帮助地方和企业解决困难、促进发展，齐心协力推动经济持续向好。 ...