以下文章来源于日经中文网 ，作者日经中文网 日经中文网 . 编制日经指数的《日本经济新闻》的中文版。提供日本、中国、欧美财经金融信息、商务、企业、高科技报道、评论和专栏。 "中国之所以强硬，是因为中国从第一次特朗普政府的贸易战以来，历经七年推进了相关准备，核心是推动经济结构转型，打造没有美国 也能生存的经济。2018年至今新增出口额超过1万亿美元，相当于中国每年对美出口额的两倍……" 文 丨桃井裕理 来源｜ 日经中文网（ID：rijingzhongwenwang） 封面来源 ｜ Unsplash 特朗普政府于美国东部时间14日凌晨0点1分（北京时间下午12点1分）将对中国的追加关税从145%下调了115%。对800美元以下 的小额货物征收120%的关税或每件100美元的关税，也一并降至54%。面对中国的反制，美国并未再反击，而是退让了。 美国对中国的追加关税目前是10%的基础对等关税税率，再加上之前以打击非法药品为名设定的20%，总共为30%。 特朗普于4月2日宣布对中国征收34%的对等关税，中国则采取了全面抗争的姿态而非谈判解决。美国将对等关税提高至84%、 125%，中国就以相同水平回应，最终美方对中方的 ...

上天天基金APP搜索【777】开户即可领98元券包 ，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 摩根大通第21届全球中国峰会将于5月22日至23日在上海举行。据悉，本届峰会以"资本为桥 连通世界"为主 题，汇聚了来自全球33个国家和地区、1400多家企业的超过2800名参会者。 在峰会召开前一天（5月21日），摩根大通举办媒体见面会，公布了摩根大通对于中国经济和股市的最新观 点。 摩根大通中国首席经济学家兼大中华区经济研究主管朱海斌表示，中美日内瓦经贸会谈之后，他上调了中国经 济增速预期。中国这两年出现了最深刻、最广泛的一轮政策调整，2024年9月至年底是上半场，而2025年以来 进入下半场。 摩根大通首席亚洲及中国股票策略师刘鸣镝认为，今年最看好的是港股，A股也将有不错表现。目前是逢低吸 纳的时机，市场可能在90天贸易谈判结束后区间出现突破。行业上，看好互联网和医疗卫生，建议低配电力和 能源。 朱海斌：中国进行了最深刻、广泛的一轮政策调整 朱海斌首先回顾了今年以来宏观政策的波动。他谈到，年初以来特朗普回归后美国的贸易政策反复，波动幅度 之大远超市场此前预期。从过程来看，最大波动产生在4月份美国对中国关税一度 ...

新华财经上海5月22日电在2025摩根大通全球中国峰会媒体见面会上，摩根大通中国首席经济学家兼大 中华区经济研究主管朱海斌、摩根大通首席亚洲及中国股票策略师刘鸣镝对中国经济前景及A股、港股 市场表达了乐观情绪。 朱海斌认为，中国这两年进行了最深刻、最广泛的一轮政策调整，2024年9月至12月仅是这一轮政策调 整的上半场，而2025年以来进入下半场。他认为本轮政策调整呈现三方面特征：财政政策方面，中央财 政仍有空间，通过扩张支持稳增长；货币政策方面，他认为当前仍有进一步降息降准的必要，且自2024 年9月后，央行将稳定地产、资本市场作为金融稳定政策的优先内容；经济结构再平衡方面，扩大内 需、扩大消费成为主要经济工作任务之首。 朱海斌表示，尽管存在挑战，但中国经济仍可以看到很多亮点。首先，今年年初DeepSeek横空出世， 从中国经济结构转型来讲，市场对于中国经济创新能力重新评估，提振了市场在这方面的信心。此外， 从4月份的数据来看，新经济领域尤其是技术创新方面表现强劲，如信息技术（IT）、人工智能（AI） 等；消费领域中，表现比较好的是技术创新的行业，包括IT、AI等；同时，政府政策优先支持的领域表 现仍然非常 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of JPMorgan in China, Zhu Haibin, emphasizes that while exports may weaken, consumption and investment are expected to strengthen due to policy support, highlighting the need for enhanced measures to boost consumption [1] Economic Policy Insights - Fiscal policy has room for expansion to support stable growth, with the central government expected to implement measures [1] - There is a necessity for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, particularly after September 2024, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate and capital markets as part of financial stability policies [1] Economic Structure Rebalancing - Expanding domestic demand and consumption are prioritized as key tasks in economic work moving forward [1]

Group 1 - The main external uncertainty facing China this year is the U.S. foreign policy, particularly its trade policy, with a consensus reached to pause the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days, but future tariff trends remain uncertain [1][2] - JPMorgan has revised its GDP growth forecast for China from 4.1% to 4.8% for the year, indicating that while economic slowdown is expected in the coming quarters, it will not be as severe as previously feared [1][2] - The two main themes for policy adjustments this year are the evolution of trade relations between China and the U.S. and domestic policy adjustments, with a more proactive fiscal policy supported by central government expansion [2] Group 2 - The current economic structure transformation shows both highlights and challenges, with a need to boost household income growth and employment confidence as a policy focus [2] - The real estate market is expected to stabilize gradually, with true stabilization likely not occurring until 2026 [2] - The stock market outlook for Q2 is characterized by a "step back, two steps forward" approach, with the market likely to remain flat during the 90-day tariff pause, although there is optimism for the performance of Hong Kong and A-shares in Q3 [2] Group 3 - In sector allocation, the rating for information technology has been adjusted from overweight to neutral due to high valuations and expectations, with a long-term valuation difficult to maintain at 25 to 30 times sales [3] - The internet and healthcare sectors remain favorable, particularly the healthcare sector, which could benefit from potential U.S. healthcare reforms leading to lower drug prices, positively impacting China's innovative drug products [3]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized the need for the financial system to align with the central government's decisions to stabilize employment, businesses, markets, and expectations, while effectively implementing monetary policies to address external uncertainties [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The meeting highlighted the importance of implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to meet the effective financing needs of the real economy [1] - It was stated that maintaining reasonable growth in the total financial volume is crucial [1] Group 2: Support for Key Areas - Increased support for key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade was emphasized [1] - The meeting called for effective utilization of both existing and new policies to enhance the quality and efficiency of financial support for the real economy [1] Group 3: Economic Transition - The focus was placed on supporting economic structural adjustments, transformation upgrades, and the conversion of old and new driving forces [1]

Group 1 - The current U.S.-China trade negotiations have resulted in a significant reduction of bilateral tariffs, exceeding many observers' expectations, but structural issues remain unresolved [2][3] - The historical context of the U.S.-Japan trade conflict in the 1980s provides insights into the current U.S.-China trade tensions, highlighting key differences such as Japan's alliance with the U.S. and China's greater strategic independence [3][4] - The "Plaza Accord" in 1985 was a pivotal moment in the U.S.-Japan trade war, leading to a sharp appreciation of the yen, which had long-term negative effects on Japan's export-driven economy [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. is facing deep structural economic issues, including income distribution imbalances, which cannot be resolved merely through trade wars or elections [4][5] - The effectiveness of the U.S. tariff strategy is questioned, as it may not be sustainable due to inherent economic contradictions and the adaptability of other countries to U.S. trade policies [5][6] - Japan's current trade strategy involves a combination of delaying negotiations and maintaining a firm stance on key issues, while also seeking to show goodwill through increased investments in the U.S. [7] Group 3 - Cooperation among countries affected by U.S. tariffs, such as China, Japan, and South Korea, is limited but possible, as nations seek to navigate the comprehensive trade pressures from the U.S. [7] - Japan is actively working to expand the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) to include more economies, aiming to create a stable trade framework outside of U.S. influence [7]

Group 1 - The 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum was held in Shenzhen, focusing on building an open and inclusive economic and financial system [1] Group 2 - Hu Xiaolian, former chairman of the Export-Import Bank of China, emphasized that the U.S.-led tariff policies are unlikely to achieve their intended goals, and the fundamental solution to trade imbalances requires adjustments in each country's economic structure [5] - The core objectives of the U.S. tariff policies include reducing trade deficits, increasing fiscal revenue, and restructuring the international economic order, but the actual return of manufacturing to the U.S. is uncertain and challenging [5] - Hu noted that the U.S. lacks competitiveness in general processing and labor-intensive industries, leading companies to prefer relocating to regions with lower tariffs and better cost structures, particularly in global South and emerging market countries [5] Group 3 - Hu further stated that the rebalancing of global trade will lead to profound adjustments in the internal economic structures of major economies, highlighting the need for countries to focus on domestic economic adjustments to effectively address trade imbalances [6] - Historical experience suggests that trade imbalances can only be effectively resolved when a country's internal economic structure develops in a more balanced manner [6]

智通财经APP获悉，5月16日港股市场，北水成交净买入10.95亿港元，其中港股通(沪)成交净买入21.2亿 港元，港股通(深)成交净卖出10.25亿港元。 北水净买入最多的个股是建设银行(00939)、吉利汽车(00175)、美团-W(03690)。北水净卖出最多的个股 是盈富基金(02800)、腾讯(00700)、小米集团-W(01810)。 | 股票名称 | 买入额 | 卖出额 | 买卖总额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 净流入 | | 阿里巴巴-W HK 09988 | 39.56亿 | 33.85 乙 | 73.41亿 +5.72 乙 | | 腾讯控股 | 13.09亿 | 17.61 乙 | 30.70亿 | | HK 00700 | | | -4.53 Z | | 小米集团-W | 11.54 乙 | 15.73 乙 | 27.27 亿 | | HK 01810 | | | -4.201Z | | 美团-W | 11.52 乙 | 8.26亿 | 19.78亿 | | HK 03690 | | | +3.26 乙 | | 建设银行 | 14.64 Z | ...

银行业策略深度报告 四维度再看当下银行配置机会 推荐（维持） ——银行配置策略报告系列一 前言： 行业研究 银行 2025 年 05 月 15 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师：林宛慧 邮箱：linwanhui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524110001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 42 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 143,218.58 | 14.35 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 98,807.18 | 12.44 | 相对指数表现 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：贾靖 邮箱：jiajing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040004 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 2025-05-11 《银行业重大事项点评：货币政策再发力，降成 本优结构主线延续——评 507 国新办发布会》 2025-05-09 《华创金融|红利资产 4 月报：险资 FVOCI 类资 产占比提升，银行平均股息率仍有 4. ...