发布时间：2025-07-02 证券研究报告：宏观报告 近期研究报告 《海外宏观周报：关税扰动下，联储 降息仍需等待》 - 2025.06.24 宏观研究 内外利好共振，成长风格迎来布局窗口 投资要点 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 从 6 月 PMI 指数来看，制造业景气度延续回升态势，供需两端步 入扩张区间，增长动能有所增长，供需缺口收窄，显示经济韧性仍强。 重点关注三点边际变化：一是尽管美关税政策仍存在不确定性，但随 着中美经贸磋商机制首次会议释放相对积极信号，以及市场对特朗普 关税可持续性的关注，叠加年内美联储降息预期走高，有效缓解了市 场担忧，市场情绪有所回暖，支撑需求和生产景气度回暖；二是市场 主体景气度有所分化，大型企业和中型企业景气度延续修复，而小型 企业景气度有待改善，冲击就业市场，就业市场景气度有所放缓；三 是短期就业市场景气度有所放缓，居民就业预期和收入预期或边际走 弱，或对有效需求 ...

C 国金期货 观投研丨产业链周报 研究品种：天然橡胶 图 2：天然橡胶 2601（RU2601）日线图 成文日期：20250630 报告周期：周度 研究员：何宁 从业资格号:F0238922;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0001219 整体来看天然橡胶向 上驱动不足，短期内或保持偏弱震荡 天然橡胶和 号胶期货 具 体如下： 万 万 万 万 三、期现结合分析 上周天然橡胶泰混现货市场价格随盘面震荡,泰混现货月差呈弱 BACK 结构，期现价差走扩，其中 RU 主力合约-泰混现货价差在 100-200 元/吨震荡；NR 主力合约*1.13-泰混现货价差跌至-20 元/吨 左右,根据往年价差规律目前市场没有很好的非标正套建仓机会。近 期 NR 仓单数量逐渐增多,标胶现货升水混合胶现货缩至平水。云南 产区上周降雨影响减少，标二和泰混的价差扩至 700 元/吨左右。 四、后市展望 日线 v MA5 12033.00 MA40 12269 8 1535 50.4% 3K 价位 12195 ll | r month 024/12/02 图 3：20 号胶 2508（NR2508）日线图 图片来源：文华财经 wh6 2601 484 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 7 月 2 日 星期三 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周二（7 月 1 日）A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.39%，收报 3457.75 点；深证 成指涨 0.11%，收报 10476.29 点；创业板指跌 0.24%，收报 2147.92 点。沪深两市成交额达到 14660 亿，较昨日 小幅缩量 208 亿。 沪深 300 指数 7 月 1 日窄幅整理，收盘 3942.76，环比上涨 6.68。 【焦炭 焦煤】7 月 1 日焦炭加权指数持续调整，收盘价 1393.2，环比下跌 34.8。 7 月 1 日，焦煤加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 823.9 元，环比下跌 27.8。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：以伊冲突带动化工品价格整体上移，近期化产利润表现较好，大型矿局针对长协合同熔断，有长协合 同的焦企原料采购成本有望下移，但市场化采购的焦企入炉煤成本或进一步抬升。近期市场传言 7 月将开启 1-2 轮提涨，回顾过往行情可以发现，焦化厂提涨往往发生在焦化行业大面积亏损减产后，当前焦化利润尚可，焦化 厂开工稳定，行业矛盾并不突出，因此四轮 ...

| 网材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年7月1日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3130 | 3080 | 50 | 115 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3160 | 3160 | 0 | 145 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3180 | 3190 | -10 | 165 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3020 | 3000 | 11 | 110 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2997 | 2995 | 2 | 133 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3015 | 3005 | 10 | 115 | | | | | | | | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3200 | 3190 | 10 | 72 | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3110 | 3110 | 0 | -18 | | ...

南华期货锡风险管理日报 2025年7月1日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 锡价格波动率（日度） | 最新收盘价 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 268110 | 245000-263000 | 15.18% | 28.8% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 锡风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪锡主力期货合约 | 沪锡主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 100% | 290000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | SN2508C275000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率合适时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪锡主力期货合约 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the financial futures and options market, both stock index futures and treasury bond futures are expected to be strong in the short and medium - term. In the commodity futures and options market, different metals and energy materials, as well as agricultural products, have their own unique supply - demand and price trends [1][2][4]. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [1] - **Medium - term view**: Bullish [1] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options and IM2507 long positions [1] - **Core logic**: Positive sentiment in the equity market due to Sino - US communication and policy support, and the potential rise of the science and technology sector [1] Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL) - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [2] - **Medium - term view**: Bullish [2] - **Reference strategy**: Hold T2509 or TL2509 long positions [3] - **Core logic**: Weak domestic fundamentals strengthen policy expectations, and the central bank's continued net investment affects the capital market [3] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials - **Copper** - **Day - to - day view**: Price range from 79,200 to 81,000 [4] - **Medium - term view**: Price range from 60,000 to 90,000 [4] - **Reference strategy**: Adopt an oscillating and slightly upward trading idea, buy call options [4] - **Core logic**: The "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US, supply shortages, and changes in international demand and inventory levels affect copper prices [4] - **Industrial Silicon** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 8,000 to 8,100 [5] - **Medium - term view**: Face downward pressure, price range from 7,000 to 9,000 [5] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short SI2508 - C - 9000 until expiration, short futures on rallies [5] - **Core logic**: Decreased supply and demand, and high inventory levels [5] - **Polysilicon** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 33,000 to 35,000 [7] - **Medium - term view**: Trade at a low level, price range from 28,000 to 38,000 [7] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short PS2508 - C - 45000 until expiration [7] - **Core logic**: Decreased supply and demand, and high inventory levels [7] - **Aluminum** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 20,400 to 20,700 [9] - **Medium - term view**: Trade at a high level, price range from 19,200 to 21,000 [9] - **Reference strategy**: Sell AL2508 - P - 19300 [9] - **Core logic**: Limited supply increase, low inventory, good performance in the automotive market, and the overall rise of non - ferrous metals [9] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 63,000 to 65,000 [11] - **Medium - term view**: Cost support weakens, prices decline steadily, price range from 56,000 to 68,000 [11] - **Reference strategy**: Short futures on rallies, sell LC2508 - C - 83000 [11] - **Core logic**: Low spot prices, large supply, and high inventory levels [11] Black and Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Day - to - day view**: Downward pressure weakens [14] - **Medium - term view**: Stop falling and stabilize [14] - **Reference strategy**: Exit the strategy of selling call options and buying put options on RB2510, sell out - of - the - money put options on rebar RB2510 [14] - **Core logic**: Potential relief of raw material inventory pressure and changes in supply and demand [14] Livestock, Poultry, and Soft Commodities - **Hogs** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias [17] - **Medium - term view**: Rebound temporarily and then maintain a weak trend [17] - **Reference strategy**: Short on rallies [17] - **Core logic**: Changes in supply and demand, with supply remaining abundant and demand weak [17] - **Sugar** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate weakly [19] - **Medium - term view**: Rise first and then fall [19] - **Reference strategy**: Short on rallies [19] - **Core logic**: Global supply surplus expectations and domestic supply - demand and import situations [19] - **Protein Meal** - **Day - to - day view**: Soybean meal 2509 oscillates in the range of [2,900, 3,000] [22] - **Medium - term view**: Soybean meal 2509 builds a bottom in the range of [2,900, 3,100] [22] - **Reference strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options on soybean meal 2508 - P - 2850 [22] - **Core logic**: Uncertainty in the weather of US soybean and Canadian rapeseed growing areas, and changes in international and domestic soybean and rapeseed markets [22] Energy and Chemicals - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate within a range [25] - **Medium - term view**: Face downward pressure [25] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short out - of - the - money call options on PG2508 [25] - **Core logic**: Changes in supply, demand, and cost factors [25] - **PVC** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [28] - **Medium - term view**: Limited upside potential [28] - **Reference strategy**: Continue to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options on PVC [28] - **Core logic**: Changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory levels [28]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights President Trump's relatively positive stance on U.S.-China relations, stating, "We get along very well with China" despite ongoing trade tensions and tariffs [1][3] - Trump acknowledged that China will pay significant tariffs but emphasized the existing trade deficit, indicating that China understands this situation [3] - In discussing the TikTok acquisition, Trump mentioned that a group of wealthy investors is interested in purchasing the platform, but it requires approval from the Chinese side [3][4] Group 2 - Trump's interview downplayed accusations against China regarding aggressive behavior and highlighted that the U.S. also engages in similar actions, suggesting a mutual understanding of the "dirty" nature of global politics [1][4] - The article notes that recent communications from the White House indicate progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, with an official stating that both sides have reached an agreement on expediting rare earth exports to the U.S. [5] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed that both countries' economic teams have maintained close communication following a recent meeting in London, aiming to solidify the consensus reached by the leaders of both nations [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 豆粕早报 2025-06-30 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，美元走弱和空头回补，美豆短期千点关口上方震荡等待中美关税 谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕探底回升，美豆带动和技术性 震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹高度，短期回归区间震荡 格局。中性 2.基差：现货2800（华东），基差-146，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存50.89万吨，上周41万吨，环比增加24.12%，去年同期96.77万吨，同 比减少47.41%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方但方向向上。中性 5.主力持仓： ...

量大面广的中小微企业，是中国经济韧性的重要支撑。 第二十届中国国际中小企业博览会6月27~30日在广州举行。工业和信息化部部长李乐成在开幕致辞中表 示，要加力优化中小企业公平竞争环境，推动建设开放型世界经济，通过消除制度性壁垒、完善市场准入 规则、加强知识产权保护等措施，让中小企业在开放的国际市场中平等获取资源、技术与信息，公平参与 竞争。 李乐成强调，要着力强化中小企业专精特新发展。出台有利政策，支持中小企业聚焦主业、精耕细作，实 现高端化、数字化、绿色化、国际化发展，不断增强创新能力和核心竞争力。引导优质资源向中小企业聚 集，建设更多中小企业特色产业集群。 6月是2025年全国中小企业服务月。当前，从中央到地方正积极部署，围绕市场拓展、融资促进、数字化 转型、技术赋能等多个领域推出系列暖企惠企举措，开展针对性的服务活动，通过精准有力的政策助力中 小企业强信心、稳预期。 2025.06. 29 本文字数：2240，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 中小企业相关指标稳中向好 工信部、国家统计局发布的最新数据显示，今年前5个月，我国中小企业经济运行总体平稳，主要经济指 标保持增长。 前5个月，我国 ...

工业和信息化部部长李乐成强调，要着力强化中小企业专精特新发展。出台有利政策，支持中小企业聚焦 主业、精耕细作，实现高端化、数字化、绿色化、国际化发展。 量大面广的中小微企业，是中国经济韧性的重要支撑。 第二十届中国国际中小企业博览会6月27~30日在广州举行。工业和信息化部部长李乐成在开幕致辞中表 示，要加力优化中小企业公平竞争环境，推动建设开放型世界经济，通过消除制度性壁垒、完善市场准入 规则、加强知识产权保护等措施，让中小企业在开放的国际市场中平等获取资源、技术与信息，公平参与 竞争。 李乐成强调，要着力强化中小企业专精特新发展。出台有利政策，支持中小企业聚焦主业、精耕细作，实 现高端化、数字化、绿色化、国际化发展，不断增强创新能力和核心竞争力。引导优质资源向中小企业聚 集，建设更多中小企业特色产业集群。 6月是2025年全国中小企业服务月。当前，从中央到地方正积极部署，围绕市场拓展、融资促进、数字化 转型、技术赋能等多个领域推出系列暖企惠企举措，开展针对性的服务活动，通过精准有力的政策助力中 小企业强信心、稳预期。 中小企业相关指标稳中向好 工信部、国家统计局发布的最新数据显示，今年前5个月，我国中小企 ...