Market Sentiment and Strategy - The market sentiment is mixed, with some optimism, but hedge funds and big money institutions have largely missed the rally, suggesting potential for further gains [2] - A slight market pullback in the second half of July would be normal [2][3] - Carson Group maintains an overweight position in equities, expecting any inflation effects from tariffs to be manageable [4] - The firm has been overweight equities since the beginning of 2023 and did not cut targets during the summer rally [5] Portfolio Allocation - Carson Group has diversified its portfolio by shifting from being very overweight in the US to increasing exposure in developed international markets, particularly Europe [5] - The firm is heavily invested in large-cap stocks, anticipating they will outperform small-caps in the second half of the year [5] - Europe is a key focus, driven by Germany's increased spending following fiscal policy changes in March [6] Investment Themes - The firm believes that fiscal deficits historically lead to higher corporate profits and a better stock market, a trend observed in both Europe and the US [7] - The AI theme is considered alive and well, justifying overweighting large-cap stocks with significant tech exposure [8][9][10] - Carson Group favors financials, technology, and industrials, along with momentum ETFs, for the second half of the year [10][11]

Market Volatility & Investment Strategy - Market volatility is expected to persist due to numerous policy changes [1][2] - The industry emphasizes staying invested with a focus on specific solutions and desired outcomes rather than avoiding risk [4] - Strategic anchors should be tailored to individual needs, such as income generation or specific life events [5] Portfolio Management & Retirement Planning - Traditional 60/40 portfolios may need to be re-evaluated, exploring alternatives to US Treasuries for income ballast [6][7] - The market is becoming more efficient, prompting a broader search for investment opportunities, including private credit [8] - The SECURE Income Act allows annuities and guaranteed income contracts in 401(k) portfolios, addressing the retirement crisis [8] Future Returns & Generational Skepticism - The industry anticipates lower and more measured returns in the next 10-20 years compared to the past 30 years [10] - Younger generations express skepticism about achieving the same portfolio gains as older generations [9] - Finding a specific investment strategy that guarantees high growth (e.g., 15-20%) is unlikely; a more active approach is needed [11]

Investment Strategy - The investment fund holds approximately 9,000 stocks, aiming for broad diversification [1] - The fund's asset allocation is roughly 70% in equities and 30% in bonds [1] - A long-term, diversified approach is considered the best way to navigate the markets [1] Geographic Allocation - Approximately 55% of the fund's investments are in the United States [1] - The remaining investments are allocated to Europe and the rest of the world [1]

Market Trends - US equities are experiencing a shift in July, with previous laggards outperforming and early winners losing momentum [1]

Tech Sector Analysis - Tech earnings continue to print well into the double digits, reaching all-time highs, driven by fundamentals rather than just multiple expansion [1] - The value of tech in portfolios is significant, especially with tariff uncertainty, making US growth exposure valuable [2] - Overweighting tech in portfolios can be justified if earnings continue to print and multiples expand, particularly if a tariff-induced slowdown occurs [3] - Quality active management is crucial within the tech sector, specifically within the "Magnificent 7" portion [4] Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The market is still awaiting the bite of tariffs, with a wide range of potential outcomes [5][6] - Commentary on consumer behavior and business investment decisions is important in assessing the impact of tariffs [6] - Focus should be on how tariff rates on major partners (Canada, Mexico, China) affect the economy, while monitoring GDP resilience [8] - There are concerns about the lower cohort, with negative year-on-year card spend and light comps in certain sectors [7] Investment Strategy - A balanced approach in a multi-asset portfolio is currently most appropriate [10] - Mid-single-digit yields on core fixed income are competitive with mid-single-digit earnings yields on equities, given elevated multiples [11] - The strategy is to remain patient, vigilant, and opportunistic, waiting for the next bout of volatility [12] - US growth is expected to be the dominant driver of 10-year Treasury yields in the long term, with yields in the mid-4% range commensurate with US growth [14]

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Market Outlook & Strategy - The firm maintains an overweight position in equities since early May [1][2] - Positive July seasonality, especially after strong May and June gains (greater than 5%), suggests continued market strength [3] - Expects the rate of the rally to slow down after July [5] Earnings & Fundamentals - Earnings estimates have come down more than necessary due to tariff concerns, potentially creating a lower bar for companies to surpass in the second half of the year [6] Fiscal Policy Impact - The US is running 6-7% deficits, which equates to 6-7% unfunded money creation into the economy, serving as a backbone for the economy and market [7] - Fiscal stimulus is a significant factor supporting the market, even with struggles in areas like home building and housing [8] Investment Flows - Systematic bids that were forced out during the VA event in April are getting back in [5][6]

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