Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley says there’s no compelling evidence that the current level of interest rates is significantly restraining economic activity (via @opinion) https://t.co/TJm6TIKyI3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices and the impact of macroeconomic factors, including U.S. labor market data and central bank policies, on the gold market and investor sentiment [3][4]. Economic Context - A truck carrying 33 tons of gold and silver concentrate was hijacked in Mexico, highlighting the increase in highway robberies, with one occurring every 50 minutes [3]. - Strong U.S. non-farm payroll data and a decrease in initial jobless claims to 227,000 indicate a robust labor market, reducing expectations for immediate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. - The Federal Reserve officials express concerns about inflation risks, with only a few supporting a rate cut in July, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [3]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain a flexible stance on interest rates, with market expectations leaning towards a potential rate cut later this year due to economic uncertainties [3]. Gold Price Analysis - Current gold prices are fluctuating, with spot gold at $3341.34 per ounce, reflecting a slight increase [2]. - The monthly and weekly price trends indicate a cautious approach towards bullish operations, with key resistance levels identified at $3343 - $3345 [4]. - The price has shown resilience around the $3310 level, suggesting that further movements will depend on whether it can maintain above this threshold [4]. - Short-term analysis indicates a bullish sentiment, with immediate focus on the $3343 - $3345 resistance zone [4].

Core Viewpoint - CIB Marine Bancshares, Inc. reported improved financial results for the second quarter and first half of 2025, with net income increasing and net interest margins showing positive trends despite challenges in loan balances and the mortgage market [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Net income for Q2 2025 was $0.7 million, or $0.50 basic and $0.48 diluted earnings per share, compared to $0.5 million, or $0.34 basic and $0.25 diluted earnings per share in Q2 2024 [2]. - For the six months ended June 30, 2025, net income was $1.0 million, or $0.74 basic and $0.71 diluted earnings per share, up from $0.6 million, or $0.80 basic and $0.35 diluted earnings per share in the same period of 2024 [2]. Net Interest Income and Margins - Net interest margin increased to 2.69% in Q2 2025 from 2.62% in Q1 2025 and 2.38% in Q2 2024 [4]. - The cost of funds declined by 51 basis points year-over-year, contributing to the improved net interest margin [4]. - Net interest income rose by $0.3 million for Q2 2025 compared to Q2 2024, and by $0.6 million for the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [4]. Loan and Asset Quality - Loan balances decreased by $19 million from March 31, 2025, and $32 million from December 31, 2024 [4]. - The allowance for credit losses to loans increased to 1.32% as of June 30, 2025, from 1.29% at March 31, 2025 [4]. - Non-performing loans to total assets increased to 1.85% at June 30, 2025, compared to 0.97% at March 31, 2025 [4]. Business Segments Performance - The Banking Division reported net income of $1.6 million for the first half of 2025, a $0.4 million improvement over the same period in 2024, driven by higher net interest margins [4]. - The Mortgage Division experienced a net loss of $0.1 million for the first half of 2025, an improvement from the prior year, despite challenges in the residential mortgage market [4]. Stock Repurchase Program - The company launched a common stock repurchase program in February 2025, authorizing up to $1 million in buybacks [3]. - In Q2 2025, the company repurchased 8,083 shares for a total of $262,000 at an average price of $32.37 per share [3][5].

The ECB should lower interest rates further if economic expansion falls short of forecasts and drags down inflation excessively, according to Governing Council member Fabio Panetta https://t.co/9bjWBXWDqV ...

How quickly can things swing back when everyone is short dollar right now. Well, that is something the electorate has always have to take into account, right. The positioning can mean that the moves don't go the way that you would normally expect them to be.And and, you know, there are various things that could get us into a situation where the dollar maybe starts to behave more like a haven again and we see more cash flowing back into the US or in a very good news situation for the US as well. Likewise, th ...

RT Mel Mattison (@MelMattison1)MMT 101: You finance the gov't at ultra-low short-term rates. This keeps interest expense as % of GDP in check even as overall debt levels rise. Other reasons: HELOCs tied to SOFR, wants to unlock $12T+ in home equity to juice economy. Corporates can issue floaters, also tied to short-term rates. I could go on. But feel it somewhat pointless as all people want to do is claim some sort of intellectual superiority to DJT rather than see the driving force behind his motivations. ...

Trade and Tariffs - The Trump administration is issuing tariff demand letters, totaling 22 letters so far, to ignite negotiations with some nations and political standoffs with others [1] - Brazil was hit with a 50% tariff, leading to political tensions as the Brazilian president views it as a political message [1][15] - The market is uncertain about tariffs, with only a handful of deals signed and details obscured; many countries are under pressure to deliver concessions to the U S by August 1 to avoid higher tariffs [1] - The U S has already collected billions of dollars in tariffs, estimated to reach around $300 billion by the end of the year, which is a little over 1% of the U S economy [41] - The market does not fully believe President Trump's statements about tariffs, and uncertainty around trade policy remains high [11][12] - The negative effects of tariffs may not be as bad as initially priced into the market, but the top-line benefits promised may not materialize [5][13] - The most important trade deal for the White House to present is with Europe, given its status as the largest investor in the U S and the complexity of needing approval from 20 different countries [21][22] Market and Economic Impact - Tech stocks, industrial stocks, and NASDAQ are at record highs, with NVIDIA up 40% since Trump tariffs [2] - The S&P 500 closed at a record high, while industrial stocks were less than 1% from achieving a record high [4] - Market gains are primarily driven by big tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and NVIDIA [6][7] - Smaller companies in the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 mid-caps are struggling and not near record highs, indicating a lack of broadening in the rally [8] - Imports to the U S represent roughly 13%-14% of GDP, with only a small portion covered by tariffs so far, making the impact visible but not necessarily prominent [15] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is making the Federal Reserve wary of cutting rates too quickly [17] Geopolitics and Policy - Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with his Russian counterpart to express disappointment with Vladimir Putin over attacks on Ukraine [1][23] - American-made weapons have resumed shipments to Ukraine, including artillery shells and mobile rocket artillery missiles [29] - The U S has not given Ukraine any U S F-16s but has okayed allies to do so [34] - The Justice Department has opened criminal investigations into former FBI Director James Comey and former CIA Director John Brennan [23] - A federal judge in New Hampshire blocked President Trump's effort to limit automatic birthright citizenship, reinstating protections that were paused last month [71] Agriculture - For American farmers, President Trump's tariff policy is a mixed bag [50] - Corn prices are under $4, and soybean prices are under $10, reflecting a market with a surplus and a lack of demand [51] - China did not meet the goals and requirements of the Phase One agreement during the first Trump administration [51] - The U S agriculture relies on several hundred thousand farmworkers, primarily in specialty crop and dairy areas [54] - Changes to the SNAP program could reduce farm income, as $020 of every food dollar spent at a grocery store ultimately ends up with a farmer [63]

Peru kept interest rates unchanged as its economy comes under threat from Donald Trump’s plan for a 50% copper tariff https://t.co/w9m3o3gMKc ...

Core Insights - The current economic environment favors well-capitalized and growth-oriented companies, which are outperforming their counterparts in the U.S. market [1] - A structural shift in the U.S. market is indicated by the sustained outperformance of large-cap and growth securities over small-cap and value stocks [2] - The S&P 500 Growth Index has returned 15.46% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 Value Index, which gained 8.85% [3] - Barclays maintains a positive outlook on U.S. growth stocks due to strong earnings momentum and lower leverage risk associated with large-cap securities [4] Market Sentiment - Bank of America and Goldman Sachs have raised their year-end forecasts for the S&P 500, with BofA increasing its target to 6,300 and Goldman to 6,600, reflecting a bullish sentiment [5] - Citigroup, Barclays, and Deutsche Bank have also raised their year-end targets for the S&P 500, indicating growing optimism in the U.S. equity market [6] - The S&P 500 has gained approximately 6.7% year-to-date, with a significant rally following a pause on tariffs announced by President Trump [6] Investment Opportunities - Large-cap ETFs are recommended for investors seeking exposure to the improving market outlook, particularly in the tech sector driven by the AI boom [7] - Notable large-cap ETFs include Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), and iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), with VOO having the largest asset base of $689.85 billion [8] - Growth-focused ETFs such as Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) and iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF) are highlighted for investors looking to capitalize on the shift in market sentiment [11][12] - VUG has an asset base of $175.61 billion, making it the largest among growth-focused options, with annual fees of 0.04% for SPYG, VUG, and IUSG, suitable for long-term investing [13]

Market & Policy Landscape - Markets favor certainty, and with the budget resolved and some tariff issues addressed, the environment is becoming clearer [3][4] - The venture market is showing signs of renewed liquidity after four years of stagnation, driven by a more friendly FTC, encouraging IPOs and M&A [5] - Tech regulation primarily occurs at the state level, often overlooked in favor of federal politics [9] Crypto & Digital Assets - The market momentum of crypto makes it difficult to assess using traditional logic [11] - The acceptance of crypto by the federal government, including banks' involvement in stablecoins, raises questions about future growth potential [12] - Proactive positive movements by the SEC and the White House on crypto suggest further bullish potential [13] Regulatory Environment & Industry-Specific Issues - Deregulation by the Trump administration could resolve regulatory issues, contrasting with the hands-off approach of the Biden administration [8] - The Genius Act, a stable coin act, has passed the Senate but awaits House approval, with the market potentially pricing it in [6] - Autonomous trucking faces regulatory hurdles, with the US DOT yet to issue sensible interstate regulations [8]