Market Overview - The stock market shows positive momentum with the Dow up +265 points (+0.62%), S&P 500 up +42 points (+0.70%), Nasdaq up +213 points (+0.97%), and Russell 2000 up +18 points (+0.87%) [1] - Bond yields remain stable with the 10-year yield at +4.35% and the 2-year yield at +3.85% [2] - Oil prices are stable, with WTI at $65 per barrel and ICE Brent crude at $67 [2] Housing Market - The Case-Shiller Home Price Index reports a +2.7% year-over-year increase in home prices, which is below the expected +4% growth [3] - New York City leads in price growth at +7.9%, followed by Chicago at +6.0% and Detroit at +5.5%, while Tampa shows a decline of -2.2% [4] - Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates were in the mid-6% range for most of April, with expectations of further challenges as rates approach 7% [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee regarding the economy's health and potential interest rate cuts [5] - Powell's previous statements indicate a steady Fed funds rate of 4.25-4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting, with no significant changes expected in his upcoming appearances [6] Consumer Confidence - The June Consumer Confidence index is anticipated to rise to a consensus of 99.5, following a previous increase to 98.0, after a significant drop to 85.7 due to "Liberation Day" tariffs [7] - Historical data shows Consumer Confidence peaked at nearly 140 in 2018 and fell below 30 during the 2009 financial crisis [8]

Don’t you sometimes feel like everyone around you isn’t genuine? Like if you were just meeting the same person over and over again. Well, you are not alone, and I want you to feel safe and seen in my talk. Ever since I was a little girl, I’ve been amazed every time I see a person wearing a unique outfit, just like if they were the only human being on Earth. Everyone knows confidence is key, but how can I be confident when no one around me seems to understand me? This and many other questions will be answere ...

Miya Chen shares her journey from isolation to confidence, revealing how two key friendships became her "roots" - one who stood up for her against bullies, and one who inspired academic growth. Through vivid storytelling, she illustrates how friends shape our identity like roots support a tree. Her talk culminates in a powerful call to both recognize our supportive friendships and become strong roots for others. A fan of reading and drawing This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format ...

All right, first we got consumer some consumer confidence data crossing. Rick Santelli has that for us. Rick.Yes, David. These are June numbers from the conference board. Uh headline number expected to be very close to 100.A bit of a disappointment. 93. 93 would be the best.Well, just since March, so not that long ago. But the real issue is in between then and now we had some really weak reads that proved to be very much should have been a contrarian indicator because the market went much higher. If we look ...

港中大（深圳）经管学院副院长、深圳高等金融研究院副院长艾春荣教授致开幕辞，他简单介绍了学校近些年来的发展，并对各位与会嘉宾的到来表示热 烈欢迎。他指出："人工智能（AI）与大数据技术的迅猛发展正深刻改变计量经济学研究范式，诸多前沿议题亟待学界共同攻坚。"他期待大家在为期两天 的研讨会中深度解构计量经济学新方法、新趋势，共探该领域的新疆域。 论文研讨 6月19日 威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校Yong Cai教授及其合著者的研究，针对断点回归设计（RDD）在存在溢出效应（Spillover Effect）时的适用性进行了理论扩展。 传统RDD方法假设处理单位之间不存在相互影响，但在实际应用（如政治宣传或地理边界相关政策评估）中，邻近个体常因交流或模仿产生溢出效应。 该研究在"线性均值形式"（Linear-in-Mean）溢出效应假设框架下，系统推导了RDD估计量的渐近性质。结果表明，RDD所识别的效应取决于溢出半径与 回归带宽的相对大小：当溢出半径远大于带宽时，识别的是直接效应；当带宽远大于溢出半径时，识别的是总效应；若两者相近，则估计值为时间效应。 为实现效应分离，研究提出在局部回归中引入邻里影响变量，从而提升因果推 ...

Can money really heal? On this episode of Warrior Money, Douglas Lynam unpacks how his journey from Marine to monk to wealth coach taught him that money is never good or evil, it’s a mirror. Lynam shares how to break free from “money monsters” and build true financial confidence. Hosted by former Congressman Patrick Murphy and veteran investor Dan Kunze, Yahoo Finance’s Warrior Money is a weekly vodcast dedicated to uplifting military veterans transitioning into civilian life. Through insights from fellow v ...

Core Insights - Home Depot serves as a significant economic barometer, reflecting consumer confidence and spending patterns in the housing market [1][2][10] Group 1: Customer Segments - The company has two distinct customer segments: Do-It-Yourself (DIY) consumers and Professional (Pro) contractors, each providing different economic signals [2][5] - DIY spending reflects household financial confidence, with larger projects indicating optimism and access to credit [3][8] - Pro contractors, generating about half of Home Depot's revenue, focus on essential needs, providing a more stable economic signal [5][6] Group 2: Current Trends - Recent data shows a divergence in spending, with Pro customer spending outpacing DIY spending, indicating a moderating but stable economy [7][9] - The softness in the DIY segment is attributed to high-interest rates, leading homeowners to hesitate on large discretionary renovations [8][12] - Strong demand from Pro contractors suggests ongoing essential maintenance and construction projects, indicating economic stability [9][12] Group 3: Stock Outlook - The stock has underperformed compared to the broader market, reflecting the consumer slowdown [10][13] - Home Depot's strategic focus, including the acquisition of SRS Distribution, strengthens its position in the resilient Pro segment [12] - The company offers a reliable dividend yield of approximately 2.66% and a consistent share repurchase program, appealing to investors [12][14] Group 4: Economic Considerations - The aging U.S. housing stock, with over 50% of homes over 40 years old, supports ongoing demand for maintenance and repairs [6][14] - A significant decline in home prices could negatively impact consumer wealth and delay large renovation projects [14]

As of June 2025, the US economy continues to defy some expectations as the labor market shows some strength even with inflation moderating. The latest jobs report on June 6th showed non-farm payrolls grew by 139,000 in May. This surpassed the forecast of 125,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%.Meanwhile, the most recent CPI report on the 11th showed inflation below expectations at 2.4% year-over-year in May with core steady at 2.8%. Earlier worries that tariffs was going to at the same ...

Raise your hand if you've ever felt like you were falling behind in life. Well, that was me, too. As a matter of fact, I've always wondered what happens when you run out of options, but life keeps going anyway. Sometime in December 2018, I was sitting in last moment. I was crying so hot I could barely breathe. At that time, my rent was overdue and my savings were gone. And on that day, I made the hardest decision of my life. I dropped out of college. It felt like the end, but in hindsight, it was the beginn ...

[Applause] When you hear the word quitter, what's the first thing that comes to your mind. I bet it's something negative like loser, failure, coward, lazy, or irresponsibility. For example, they are rage quitters.They are people who get frustrated when things like video games are not going well and quit halfway. Wait, why does this sound familiar to me. Speaking of video games, there is an award gaming winning game called Ghost of Tsushima.If you're a gamer, you might have heard of it. The story is based on ...