交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年6月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：USDA：预计25/26年度全球食糖产量同比增长4.7%，消费增长1.4%，过剩1139.7万吨。 Green Pool：25/26榨季全球食糖产量增长5.3%，达1.991亿吨。25年1月1日起，进口糖浆及预混 粉关税从12%调整到20%，调整后的关税接近原糖配额外进口关税。2025年5月底，24/25年度本期 制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨；全国累计销糖811.38万吨；销糖率72.69%（去年同期66.17%）。 2025年4月中国进口食糖13万吨，同比增加8万吨，进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-6-10 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面持续回落。供应方面，开工率及日产持续高位，近期有新装置投产， 库存略有累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工回落，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求短期偏弱。 尿素整体供过于求明显，5月中旬尿素出口专题会议召开，出口政策落地，内外价格双轨制使得 出口利润高但对国内价格影响小。交割品现货1850（+50），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差153，升贴水比例8.3%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存131万吨（+12.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • ...

首席点 评： 白银闪亮，黑色暗淡 贵金属 ：金银走势分化，黄金延续震荡，白银连续走强。中美高级官员在伦敦展开新一轮贸易谈判。 美国 5 月非农就业新增 13.9 万，超市场预期 13 万，失业率稳定在 4.2% ，工资增长超出预期。短期降 息预期降温，黄金出现回落，而白银在金银比价高位、行情突破走高、已经景气景气好于预期的带动下 继续走强，金银比价进一步修复。此前美国总统特朗普将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从 25% 提 高至 50% ，市场担忧关税会进一步蔓延至贵金属。美国众议院以微弱优势通过税改法案，对美国债务 问题和经济压力的担忧发酵。 5 月开始公布的经济数据将逐渐反馈关税冲击带来的影响，预计数据将呈 现更将明显的滞胀态势，不过近期数据所显示关税政策的冲击比担忧中的要小。短期内美联储难有动 作，但随着政策框架的修改，或为未来宽松进行铺垫。考虑市场正处于期待关税冲突降温的阶段，而美 联储短期内难有快速降息。黄金长期驱动仍然明确提供支撑，短期内如有有关美国债务问题发酵或是美 联储重新 QE 等动作，或提供反弹动力，整体上呈现震荡态势。白银突破后短期延续强势。 钢材 ： 当前钢厂盈利率持平未明显降低，铁水 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the phenomenon of improving GDP growth alongside weak inflation, attributing this to financial cycle adjustments and restrained policy measures, leading to a widening demand gap that suppresses inflation growth [1][2][3]. Economic Performance - Over the past two quarters, GDP year-on-year growth has reached 5.4%, while inflation remains weak, with CPI growth close to zero due to the drag from food prices, particularly pork [2][12]. - The core CPI inflation is lower than previous predictions, indicating a persistent divergence between economic growth and inflation [2][12]. Labor Market Dynamics - Economic structure optimization and technological advancements have led to a decrease in labor intensity, with labor demand slowing down. By 2024, labor intensity in China's secondary and tertiary industries is expected to be around 70-80 compared to 2018 levels [3][29]. - The overall unemployment rate remains stable, but income growth has slowed, indicating a shift towards a "quasi-equilibrium" state in the labor market [3][51]. Future Economic Outlook - The "quasi-equilibrium" growth is expected to continue in the second half of the year, with GDP year-on-year growth projected at approximately 5.0% for the year [4][56]. - CPI inflation is anticipated to remain low, with core inflation showing slight improvement but still expected to be in a negative range for the year [4][60]. Structural Changes - The financial cycle is transitioning, with a gradual reduction in the negative impact of real estate on the economy. The contribution of real estate to GDP growth turned negative in the second half of 2021, but this drag is diminishing [8][12]. - The shift towards new economic models, including high-end manufacturing, is increasing production efficiency and altering the labor market dynamics [16][22]. Consumption and Investment Trends - Consumer spending is expected to stabilize, with the "old-for-new" policy contributing to retail sales growth, although its impact may weaken in the fourth quarter due to base effects [45][54]. - Fixed asset investment is projected to grow by around 4.0% for the year, with manufacturing investment expected to increase by 8.0% [55][56]. Trade and Export Dynamics - Exports are facing challenges from tariffs but are expected to show resilience, with a projected year-on-year growth of around 4.0% [56][57]. - The import growth is anticipated to be structurally weak, with a potential year-on-year growth close to zero [56][57].

日前，中办、国办印发《关于进一步保障和改善民生 着力解决群众急难愁盼的意见》（以下简称《意 见》），其中多次提到"保障性住房"，如支持各地统筹资金渠道，加大保障性住房供给，引导支持社会 力量运营长期租赁住房；引导支持在保障性住房中加大兼顾职住平衡的宿舍型、小户型青年公寓供给 等。此外，《意见》还提到，稳步推进灵活就业人员参加住房公积金制度。 严跃进认为，后续需要政府与开发商、企业等多方合作，通过政策引导、资金扶持等方式，鼓励建设更 多适合青年居住的小户型公寓，特别是在就业集中区域，确保青年人能够就近居住，实现工作与生活的 便利衔接。反过来，此类住房产品供给也要与各地就业工作等挂钩，有利于各类产业聚集。 这些政策对初入职场的年轻人以及参与新职业的青年释放了哪些积极信号？政策又将如何更好地落地？ 新京报记者采访了业内专家进行解读。 持续发力，把保障房和好房子结合起来 保障性住房供给一直是最近几年的重点工作，尤其体现在用地支持、金融财税支持等系列工作中。今年 年初，北京市规划和自然资源委联合北京市发展和改革委发布《北京市2025年度建设用地供应计划》， 相比去年，今年的保障性住房用地计划供应量增加了15公顷，达到4 ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant portion of the Ukrainian population, 63%, now misses former President Yanukovych, with 89% of those who protested against him expressing regret over their actions, highlighting a stark contrast between past hopes and current realities [1][6][8]. Group 1: Public Sentiment and Regret - A survey by the Kyiv International Sociology Institute indicates that a majority of the protesters from 2014 now regret their actions, reflecting a deep sense of loss and disappointment in the current state of affairs [6][8]. - The public sentiment has shifted dramatically, with negative feelings towards Yanukovych decreasing from 88% in 2014 to 33% in 2025, as people express feelings of regret and disillusionment with Western promises [8][20]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - Under Yanukovych's leadership, Ukraine experienced economic growth, with a GDP increase of 4.3% in 2012 and a decrease in unemployment to 7.8%, contrasting sharply with the current unemployment rate exceeding 40% [12][20]. - The economic situation has deteriorated significantly, with GDP plummeting from $183.3 billion in 2013 to $91 billion in 2015, and inflation soaring to 43.3% [20]. Group 3: Western Influence and Aid - The initial promise of €11 billion in modernization aid from the EU has largely failed to materialize, with only 30% reaching the intended recipients, and much of the funding being earmarked for military purposes rather than civilian needs [3][20]. - The U.S. involvement in Ukraine's political landscape included significant financial support for "democracy promotion," which has been criticized as a form of manipulation rather than genuine assistance [16][18]. Group 4: Political Dynamics - The political landscape in Ukraine has become increasingly polarized, with internal divisions exacerbated by language policies and differing regional sentiments, complicating the path to national unity and development [22][24]. - The current administration is facing accusations of corruption, with reports indicating that President Zelensky's family holds over $1.3 billion in offshore assets, raising concerns about governance and accountability [22].

Universal Health Services (UHS) FY Conference June 09, 2025 08:00 AM ET Speaker0 Alright. Good morning, everyone. I'm Jamie first this is the first session of the day. So I we're required to make disclosures in public compensation either 1% or more ownership. We're prepared to repeat the loud disclosures for press however these are available to our in our most recent reports, we Speaker1 would find a on our firm portal. Alright. So with that out of the way, we're we're kicking off today with UHS, and we hav ...

研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 研究员：袁 棋 投资咨询号：Z0019013 第一部分 核心观点 第二部分 氧化铝-产业基本面 第三部分 电解铝-产业基本面 上方压力逐步加大，关注多空双方在20000附近的博弈情况 目 录 核心观点 宏观：美国5月失业率值同预期一致，非农就业人口微幅超预期，美国经济仍有一定韧性，降息预期降低，美元指数小幅反弹；周末美日新一轮贸易 谈判仍未有结果，美国内部官员分歧较大，加上近期特朗普和马斯克关系迅速恶化，表明美国内部不确定性正在快速加大，预计会对全球经济带来重 大影响。 氧化铝-产业基本面总结： 电解铝-产业基本面总结： 综合来看，海外关税政策和美国内部不稳定性因素正在加大，预计对后续全球资产带来较大影响，短期盘面回归基本面。产业方面，国内需求逐 步进入淡季，价格上方压力加大，中期存在利空；社库延续去化，且处于绝对低位，现货商挺价意愿较强，升水维持高位，对盘面存在较强支撑。简 言之，预计主力07合约区间震荡，运行区间为19600-20200元/吨之间，短期偏弱概率加大，关注盘面在20000附近的多空博弈情况，建议产业端随用 随采。 供给：5月，在产产能环比增加21 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 纯碱玻璃周报——2025.06.09 中原期货研究所：化工组 | 作者：刘培洋 | 研究助理：申文 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：F0290318 | 执业证书编号： F03117458 | | 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 | 0371-58620081 | | liupy_qh@ccnew.com | shenwen_qh@ccnew.com | 01 周度观点汇总 3 1.1 纯碱周度观点——供应压力回升 品种 主要逻辑 策略建议 风险提示 纯碱 1.供应 装置开工率80.76%（+2.19%），氨碱法75.65%（环比+4.24%），联碱法80.41%（+3.87%)；周 产量70.41万吨（+1.91万吨），轻碱产量32.18万吨（+0.66万吨），重碱产量38.22万吨（+1.25 万吨）。 2.需求 纯碱表需70.14万吨（-3.61万吨），轻碱表需35.01万吨（+2.30万吨），重碱表需35.12万吨 （-5.65万吨）。 3.库存 纯碱企业库存162.70万吨（+0.27万吨），轻碱库存79万吨（-2.83万吨），重碱库存 ...

研究所 白净 F03097282，Z0018999 黑色金属周报-钢材 钢价低位反弹 基差修复 目录 第一部分 结论及平衡表 第二部分 供需基本面 1 钢价低位反弹 基差修复 350 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 1150 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 五大品种表观需求 2022 2023 2024 2025 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1 3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729313335373941434547495153 五大品种钢材社库+厂库（农历） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：钢联、宏源期货研究所 本周国内钢材现货价格震荡小幅反弹，华东上海螺纹3090元（-），唐山螺纹3150元（+20）； 热卷方面，上海热卷3200元（+30），天津热卷3120元（-20）。 截至6月5日，五大品种钢材整体产量降0.47万吨，五大品种库存厂库环比降0.26吨，社库降 1.53吨。表观需882.17万吨，环比降31.62万吨。截至6月6日，长流程现货端，华东螺纹长流 ...