This story was originally published on CFO Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily CFO Dive newsletter. Dive Brief: The Federal Reserve on Wednesday, in a decision with two dissents, held the main interest rate steady at a range between 3.5% and 3.75%, noting robust economic growth and signs of stability in the unemployment rate. Policymakers cautioned that inflation persists above their 2% goal while not expressing the same degree of concern about weak hiring that prompte ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's current situation is heavily influenced by political pressures, which limits its ability to make independent monetary policy decisions [3][4][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Independence - The Federal Reserve is facing a significant political assault that undermines its independence, making it difficult for officials to acknowledge economic data [3][4]. - There is uncertainty regarding the statements that Fed Chair Jay Powell will make during the press conference, especially in light of recent political scrutiny [2][3]. Group 2: Potential Leadership Changes - Discussions are ongoing about the next head of the Federal Reserve, with various candidates being considered, including Rick Reer and Christopher Waller [4][5][7]. - Christopher Waller is noted for not having made political donations, which aligns with the Fed's tradition of maintaining political neutrality [7][8]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Consumer confidence has significantly declined, with a notable labor market differential reported, which historically indicates a recession [10]. - Inflation metrics, such as Trueflation TRU at 1.15%, suggest that inflation is not currently a pressing issue for corporations, despite ongoing cost-cutting measures [11][12]. Group 4: Employment and Cost Pressures - The labor market is experiencing challenges, with high-paying corporate jobs being lost, impacting middle-income workers [15]. - Rising costs in essentials, particularly grocery prices and gasoline, are straining consumers, although rents are beginning to fall [13][14]. Group 5: Future Rate Cuts - Expectations are that meaningful rate cuts may not occur until June, and there is speculation that Powell may not act decisively on monetary policy before his term ends [15][16]. - Powell's acknowledgment of labor market weaknesses could influence future policy decisions, as failing to address these issues may tarnish his legacy [17].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates during the upcoming meeting, with indications that rate cuts are not imminent [1] - Fed officials have expressed confidence in the current policy stance, suggesting a readiness to respond to economic data but signaling no urgency for immediate cuts [1][3] - The labor market shows signs of softness, with payroll growth remaining weak, while inflation continues to exceed the Fed's target [1][2] Inflation Data - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December remains at 2.6%, consistent with levels from September to November, indicating persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% goal [1] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for November shows a higher inflation rate of 2.8%, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures [2] Internal Fed Dynamics - There is a division among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts, with some members advocating for a steady approach to control inflation [3] - New voting members of the Fed, including presidents from Cleveland, Dallas, and Minneapolis, are expected to support maintaining current rates [4] - Key figures such as Powell and other senior officials have reiterated that the policy is in a favorable position, suggesting a cautious approach moving forward [4]

Core Viewpoint - The increasing national debt in the U.S. is a significant concern, with experts warning of potential economic strain and a "debt death spiral" if growth does not improve [1][4]. Group 1: National Debt Concerns - U.S. national debt has surged from $7 trillion to over $38 trillion in the last 15 years, with projections indicating it could reach the low 40s in the coming decade if current trends continue [3][5]. - The reliance on foreign buyers for debt financing is diminishing, which could lead to Americans bearing a larger burden of the debt [2][6]. - Experts like Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio emphasize that the current debt levels are unsustainable and could lead to currency erosion and inflation [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Adjustments - Solomon warns that without stronger economic growth, the U.S. may face a painful adjustment period [3]. - The need for aggressive fiscal stimulus has become entrenched in the U.S. economy, making it challenging to cut spending [2]. - The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that new legislation could add over $5.5 trillion to the national debt by 2034 [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies Amid Economic Uncertainty - Experts recommend diversifying investments, particularly into gold, which is viewed as a safe haven during economic turmoil [8][9]. - Real estate is also highlighted as a protective asset class during inflationary periods, with property values and rental income typically rising [12][13]. - Alternative investments, such as art, are gaining attention for their potential to provide unique portfolio diversification and returns [22][24].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75%, with Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference being a focal point for market sentiment [1][2] - Bitcoin has shown a recovery, surpassing $89,000, while other major tokens have also gained traction, indicating renewed speculative interest in the crypto market [4] Market Volatility - Key volatility indexes suggest that traders anticipate only mild price fluctuations, with Bitcoin's one-day implied volatility index remaining around 40%, indicating a 24-hour price swing of just 2% [3] - Other cryptocurrencies like XRP, ETH, and SOL are also expected to experience low volatility in the near term [3] Economic Context - The market is closely watching the U.S. government's ability to avoid another shutdown as Congress approaches a funding deadline, which could impact liquidity and risk premiums in the crypto market [5][6] - A timely agreement could stabilize market conditions, while a prolonged standoff may lead to tighter liquidity and broader de-risking [6]

Still-elevated inflation and a labor market that has weakened but not collapsed are the main reasons the Federal Reserve is widely expected to wrap up its two-day meeting Wednesday with a hold on the U.S. policy rate. ...

Core Insights - Deposit account rates are declining, but competitive returns on certificates of deposit (CDs) can still be locked in, with the best CDs offering rates above 4% [1] Group 1: Current CD Rates - The best short-term CDs (six to 12 months) currently offer rates around 4% to 4.5% APY, with Marcus by Goldman Sachs offering the highest rate of 4% APY for a 1-year term [2] - A minimum opening deposit of $500 is required for the highest CD rate [2] Group 2: Historical Trends - CD rates were relatively high in the early 2000s but began to decline due to economic slowdowns and Federal Reserve rate cuts, with average one-year CDs at around 1% APY by 2009 [3] - The trend of falling CD rates continued into the 2010s, with average rates for 6-month CDs dropping to about 0.1% APY by 2013 [4] - Between 2015 and 2018, CD rates improved slightly as the Fed increased rates, but the COVID-19 pandemic led to emergency rate cuts, causing new record lows for CD rates [5] Group 3: Recent Developments - Following the pandemic, inflation prompted the Fed to hike rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, resulting in higher APYs on savings products, including CDs [6] - As of September 2024, the Fed began cutting the federal funds rate, leading to a steady decline in CD rates from their peak, although they remain high by historical standards [7] Group 4: Understanding CD Rates - Traditionally, longer-term CDs offer higher interest rates, but currently, the highest average CD rate is for a 12-month term, indicating a flattening or inversion of the yield curve [8] - Factors to consider when choosing a CD include goals for locking away funds, type of financial institution, account terms, and inflation [9]

The central bank was closely monitoring the appreciation of the euro, which could potentially reduce inflation across the bloc, the Governor of the Bank of France said. ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of ongoing inflation on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and suggests focusing on low-beta defensive stocks to navigate market volatility [2][3][10] Economic Context - Inflation has risen, with the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index increasing by 2.8% year-over-year in November, moving further away from the Federal Reserve's 2% target [6][8] - Personal income growth has slowed, with increases of 0.1% in October and 0.3% in November, below analysts' expectations [9] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to consider low-beta defensive stocks, particularly in the utility and consumer staples sectors, to mitigate market fluctuations [4][5] - Featured stocks include: - **Ameren Corp. (AEE)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 8.2%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.58, dividend yield of 2.78% [12][13] - **Fortis, Inc. (FTS)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 4.2%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.50, dividend yield of 3.46% [14][15] - **ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 11.8%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.81, dividend yield of 3.47% [16] - **Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 6.6%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.33, dividend yield of 4.76% [17] - **J&J Snack Foods Corp. (JJSF)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 4.5%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.34, dividend yield of 3.43% [18][19]

In the past two weeks, Rick Rieder’s odds on Polymarket of becoming the next Fed chair have surged from low single digits to nearly 50%, putting the veteran Wall Streeter far in the lead over second and third place candidates Kevin Warsh (29%) and Christopher Waller (6%). Rieder would bring a highly unusual background to the job. The current chief Jerome Powell is a former lawyer, private equity partner, and Treasury official, while his predecessors Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan were PhD economists (the ...