基础化工月报：三氯乙烯等价格上行，我国甲醇表观消 费量首次突破 1 亿吨 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 8 日 [Table_ReportDate] 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Tabl 行业e_ReportType] 月报 化工行业 张燕生 化工行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500517050001 联系电话：+86 010-83326847 邮 箱：zhangyansheng@cindasc.com 洪英东 化工行业分析师 执业编号：S1500520080002 联系电话：+86 010-83326848 邮 箱： hongyingdong@cindasc.com 尹 柳 化工行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524090001 联系电话：+86 010-83326712 邮 箱： yinliu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [基础化工月报： Table_Title] 三氯乙烯等价格上行，我国甲醇表观 消费量首次突破 1 亿吨 [Table_Re ...

基础化工月报：三氯乙烯等价格上行，我国甲醇表观消 费量首次突破 1 亿吨 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 8 日 [Table_ReportDate] 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Tabl 行业e_ReportType] 月报 化工行业 张燕生 化工行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500517050001 联系电话：+86 010-83326847 邮 箱：zhangyansheng@cindasc.com 洪英东 化工行业分析师 执业编号：S1500520080002 联系电话：+86 010-83326848 邮 箱： hongyingdong@cindasc.com 尹 柳 化工行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524090001 联系电话：+86 010-83326712 邮 箱： yinliu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [基础化工月报： Table_Title] 三氯乙烯等价格上行，我国甲醇表观 消费量首次突破 1 亿吨 [Table_Re ...

食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 泸州老窖（000568.SZ） 主动调控，着眼长远 2025 年 05 月 05 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 123.74 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 197.71/98.92 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,821.39 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,818.17 | | 总股本(亿股) | 14.72 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 14.69 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 44.97 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -64% -48% -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 泸州老窖 沪深300 相关研究报告 《收入增速行业前列，盈利能力持续 提升—公司信息更新报告》-2024.5.5 | 张宇光（分析师） | 逄晓娟（分析师） | 张恒玮（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | pangxiaojuan@kysec.cn | zhanghengwei@kysec.cn ...

市场消息：苹果(AAPL.O)CEO库克表示，今天没有关于产品要涨价的消息宣布。 ...

洋河股份（002304.SZ）2024 年年报&2025 年一季报点评 阶段性降速调整，静待企稳改善 2025 年 04 月 30 日 ➢ 事件：公司于 2025 年 4 月 28 日发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，24 全年实现营收 288.76 亿元，同比-12.83%；实现归母净利润 66.73 亿元，同比 -33.37%；其中 24Q4 实现营收 13.60 亿元，同比-52.17%；实现归母净利润- 19.05 亿元，同比亏损扩大。25Q1 实现营收 1110.66 亿元，同比-31.92%；实 现归母净利润 36.37 亿元，同比-39.93%。 ➢ 量缩价升，停货去库调整节奏。产品方面，量价拆分来看，24 年公司白酒销 售量 13.91 万吨，同比-16.30%，吨酒价同比+3.87%；其中，中高档酒实现营 收 243.17 亿元，同比-14.79%；普通酒实现营收 39.31 亿元，同比-0.49%。分 地区看，24 年公司省内、省外收入分别实现 127.48、155.00 亿元，同比-11.43%、 -14.35%。分渠道看，批发经销实现收入 278.54 亿元，同比-13.1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry has entered a phase of slow growth, with significant uncertainties for market development in 2025, and the potential for no incremental new installations in that year [1] Company Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 82.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 36.23%, and a net loss of 8.62 billion yuan, compared to a net profit of 10.75 billion yuan in the previous year [3] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a net loss of 1.436 billion yuan, an improvement of 38.89% compared to a loss of 2.35 billion yuan in the same period last year [3] - The decline in performance is attributed to an imbalance in supply and demand, insufficient operating rates, and a continuous drop in photovoltaic product prices, alongside rapid technological iterations leading to asset impairments [3] Industry Trends - In 2024, the production of polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries, and modules increased by over 10% year-on-year, while export volumes for photovoltaic batteries and modules grew by over 46% and 12%, respectively [3] - Despite the increase in production, prices across the industry have significantly declined, with polysilicon prices dropping over 39%, silicon wafer prices over 50%, and battery and module prices around 30% [3] Shipment and Production Outlook - The company achieved silicon wafer shipments of 108.46 GW in 2024, with external sales of 46.55 GW, and battery module shipments of 82.32 GW [4] - For 2025, the company expects to achieve silicon wafer shipments of 120 GW and battery module shipments between 80 GW and 90 GW, with BC module shipments expected to exceed 25% of total shipments [4] Technological Developments - The manufacturing cost difference between BC and TOPCon technologies has been reduced to 0.05 yuan per watt, with expectations for further cost reductions through efficiency improvements and scale effects [5] Market and Policy Impact - The company is closely monitoring changes in U.S. trade policies, particularly the impact of the removal of tariff exemptions for Southeast Asian solar components and the ongoing "double anti" investigations [5][6] - The company's investment in Vietnam, aimed at serving the U.S. market, has faced challenges due to these policy changes, leading to significant fixed asset impairments [6] Future Market Expectations - The company anticipates that the global photovoltaic demand will remain stable or see slight growth in 2025, with a return to growth expected by 2026, although at a reduced rate of around 10% compared to previous years' growth rates of 40% to 50% [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's main product prices have declined, leading to a decrease in performance for the second half of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 [6] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 29.763 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.029 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 148% [5] - The company is expected to face challenges in 2025 due to further price declines in key products, resulting in a downward adjustment of profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 29.763 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.029 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 148% [5] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 7.290 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.96%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.92% [5] Business Segments - The chemical new materials segment generated a revenue of 20.4 billion yuan in 2024, up 26.8% year-on-year, while the basic chemical products segment saw a revenue of 5.8 billion yuan, down 7.4% year-on-year [6] - The fertilizer business achieved a revenue of 3.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.9% [6] Price Trends - The report highlights a decline in sales prices for key products in the second half of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, with specific declines noted for PC, PA6, and other chemicals [6] Production Capacity and Management - The company has successfully resumed production of its hydrogen peroxide facility and launched new capacity projects, including a 600,000-ton caprolactam project [7] - The production target for 2025 is set at 13.5 million tons, a 40.6% increase from 2024 [7] Profit Forecasts - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward due to the decline in product prices, with expected net profits of 2.056 billion yuan for 2025, 2.325 billion yuan for 2026, and 2.643 billion yuan for 2027 [7]

事件 公司发布2025 年一季度报告，2025Q1 公司实现营业收入1116.11 亿元，同比下降8.90%，环比下降 10.40%；归母净利润19.52 亿元，同比增长13.85%，环比下降1.29%；扣非归母净利润24.76 亿元，同比 增长37.08%，环比增长7.04%。 金属产品价格上涨，公司盈利水平改善 盈利预测、估值与评级 我们预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为66.21/73.44/85.35 亿元，分别同 比-4.89%/+10.92%/+16.21%；EPS 分别为1.91/2.12/2.46 元/股，当前股价对应PE分别为11.3/10.2/8.7 倍， 维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：产品及原材料价格波动风险；汇率波动风险；安全生产风险；环保风险。 现金流同比改善，费用率小幅下降 2025Q1 公司经营性现金净流量为5.58 亿元，同比增加66.27 亿元；主要系公司应付票据及应付账款增加 所致。费用方面，2025Q1 公司期间费用率为1.22%，同比下降0.02pct；其中，销售/管理/研发/财务费用 率分别为0.15%/0.53%/0.31%/0.23%，分别同比+0.0 ...

证券研究报告 广信股份 (603599 CH) 24 年净利承压，静待景气改善 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 28 日│中国内地 | 农用化工 | 广信股份 4 月 27 日发布 24 年年报和 25 年一季报：2024 年实现营收 46.4 亿元（yoy-21%），归母净利 7.8 亿元（yoy-46%），扣非净利 7.0 亿元 （yoy-46%）。其中 Q4 实现归母净利 2.0 亿元（yoy+77%，qoq+26%）。24 年公司拟每股派发现金红利 0.27 元（含税），股利支付率为 32%。公司 24Q4 归母净利基本符合我们前瞻预期（2.1 亿元）。25Q1 实现归母净利 1.6 亿元 （yoy-29%，qoq-21%），公司 25Q1 归母净利低于我们前瞻预期（2.6 亿元）， 主要系主产品销售价格下降、销量减少等。考虑农药产品价格处于底部整固 期，未来景气有望改善，维持"增持"评级。 需求不足等影响下公司农药价格下行，综合毛利率同比-7.1pct 至 30.7% 24 年受市场需求不足、海运费激增等影 ...

2024 业绩符合我们预期 公司公布2024 及1Q25 年业绩：2024 年收入297.63 亿元，同比增长17.4%，归母净利润20.29 亿元，对 应每股盈利1.06 元，同比增长147.8%，其中4Q24 收入81.84 亿元，同环比分别增长10.4%/8.6%，归母净 利润4.54 亿元，同环比分别增长45.5%/12.5%，业绩符合我们预期。 1Q25 收入72.90 亿元，同环比分别+8.0%/-10.9%，归母净利润4.13 亿元，同环比分别-27.3%/-9.0%。 持续推进项目建设，为公司成长提供动能。2024 年末公司在建工程47.60亿元，主要包括：40 万吨有机 硅项目，24 万吨/年乙烯下游一体化项目（二期工程），15 万吨/年丙酸项目，8#9#双氧水项目等，进 度分别为93%/80%/75%/92%。据公司年报，截至2024 年末公司有机硅项目已顺利打通全流程，我们预 计1Q25 已有部分利润贡献。 盈利预测与估值 由于丁辛醇等产品价格下跌，我们下调公司2025 年净利润28%至17.30 亿元。引入2026 年盈利预测 19.72 亿元，公司当前股价对应12.7 倍2025 年 ...