以沃勒和鲍曼为代表的激进降息派官员强调，关税并非没有传导效应，但在需求和供给侧都存在抑制涨价的因素。他们指出，技术进步带来的长周期趋势 性价格下降，如玩具和电子产品等，也会对冲关税的一次性跳升对通胀的影响。 近期，关于美国联邦储备系统（美联储）是否将在年内降息的讨论愈发激烈。尽管在6月的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上，美联储主席鲍威尔表 示美国劳动力市场并未迫切需要降息，但随后发布的一系列经济数据却似乎在暗示降息的必要性。 与6月FOMC会议的点阵图相比，美联储官员们近期的言论显得更为丰富多样。值得注意的是，他们的分歧并不极端，更多的是围绕9月是否降息以及7月 降息的条件展开激烈讨论。事实上，并没有真正的鹰派官员认为美国经济完全不需要降息，分歧仅在于降息的幅度和时机。 鲍威尔在提出多种前提条件的情况下，为大幅且连续的降息打开了绿灯。尽管官员们的发言依然保持相对平衡，与先前FOMC传递的信号无太大差异，但 降息的确定性正在增强，市场也朝着更为鸽派的理解方向前进。这一变化导致整条利率曲线较上周平行下行约10个基点。 目前来看，美国未来的降息路径似乎正在朝着劳动力市场滞后下行的情形展开，而一个较弱的非农就业数 ...

意大利6月Istat制造业信心指数 87.3，预期87，前值由86.5修正为86.6。 ...

意大利6月Istat商业信心指数 87.3，预期 87，前值 86.5。 ...

意大利6月Istat消费者信心指数 96.1，预期 97，前值 96.5。 ...

Economic Data and Events - Japan's unemployment rate for May will be released at 07:30 [1] - France's preliminary CPI for June will be announced at 14:45 [1] - Eurozone's industrial and economic sentiment indices for June will be published at 17:00 [1] - Federal Reserve's Williams will host a meeting at 19:30 [1] - The U.S. will report May's core PCE price index year-on-year, personal spending month-on-month, and core PCE price index month-on-month at 20:30, along with Canada's April GDP month-on-month [1] - Federal Reserve's Harker and Governor Cook will participate in an event at 21:15 [1] - The final consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for June and the one-year inflation expectations will be released at 22:00 [1] - The total number of oil rigs in the U.S. for the week ending June 27 will be reported at 01:00 the next day [1]

今日重点关注的财经数据与事件：2025年6月27日 周五 ① 02:30 欧洲央行行长拉加德发表讲话 ② 07:30 日本5月失业率 ③ 14:45 法国6月CPI月率初值 ④ 17:00 欧元区6月工业景气指数 ⑤ 17:00 欧元区6月经济景气指数 ⑥ 19:30 美联储威廉姆斯主持会议 ⑦ 20:30 加拿大4月GDP月率 ⑧ 20:30 美国5月核心PCE物价指数年率 ⑨ 20:30 美国5月个人支出月率 ⑩ 20:30 美国5月核心PCE物价指数月率 ⑪ 21:15 美联储哈玛克和理事库克出席活动 ⑫ 22:00 美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值 ⑬ 22:00 美国6月一年期通胀率预期终值 ⑭ 次日01:00 美国至6月27日当周石油钻井总数 相关链接 ...

德国市场研究机构捷孚凯6月26日发布的报告显示，受储蓄意愿持续增强影响，7月德国消费者信心先行 指数较6月修正后的数据下降0.3点，至负20.3点，结束此前连续三个月回升势头。（新华社） ...

美联储巴尔金：担心过度依赖密歇根大学消费者信心指数数据传递的信号。 ...

Core Insights - The German consumer confidence index has declined for the first time in four months, primarily due to households opting to save rather than spend [1] - Despite a more optimistic income outlook, the increased willingness to save among consumers offsets the positive sentiment among high-income households [1] - Economic expectations among consumers have risen to the highest level since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, driven by government stimulus plans in defense and infrastructure set to take effect later this year [1] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are showing a higher propensity to save, indicating ongoing uncertainty despite improved income expectations from recent wage agreements and increased retirement benefits [1] - The decline in consumer confidence is attributed to a shift in focus from spending to saving, reflecting a cautious approach among households [1] Economic Outlook - The report highlights that the improvement in economic outlook is linked to upcoming government initiatives aimed at stimulating the economy [1] - The increase in consumer economic expectations suggests a potential for future spending, contingent on the effectiveness of government stimulus measures [1]

德国7月GfK消费者信心指数 -20.3，预期 -19.2，前值 -19.9。 ...