摩根士丹利利率策略师指出，本周即将公布的通胀数据可能意外回落，叠加油价下跌，有望遏制债市对 未来两年的通胀预期。 策略师建议通胀互换市场的客户做好准备，预计两年期通胀预期（当前约为2.79%）将回落至10年期通 胀预期（当前约为2.48%）下方。自美国大选日以来，短期通胀预期一直高于长期预期。 由阿里亚曼·辛格（Aryaman Singh）领导的团队表示，若周三公布的5月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告显 示通胀低于经济学家预期，相关交易最早可能在当日达成目标。 策略师写道，5月CPI数据"对于理解关税对核心商品的初步影响至关重要"。 机构调查显示，经济学家对5月整体CPI的普遍预期为环比上涨0.2%，剔除食品和能源后的CPI环比涨幅 则预计从0.2%加快至0.3%。然而，策略师称，通胀互换合约隐含的涨幅分别为0.12%和0.23%，该市 场"向来更精准预测CPI数据"。 报告还指出，一年期通胀互换利率已呈下行趋势，"表明市场参与者正逐步排除未来实际关税税率进一 步上升的可能性"。 策略师预测，当前较10年期高31个基点的两年期CPI互换利差有望收窄10个基点。不过他们建议，若利 差扩大至45个基点则止损。交易风 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Argentina has agreed with financial institutions to cancel the outstanding balance of liquidity option contracts valued at 5.9 trillion pesos [1] Group 1 - The cancellation of liquidity option contracts is a significant move by the Central Bank of Argentina [1] - The total value of the contracts being canceled amounts to 5.9 trillion pesos, indicating a substantial financial adjustment [1]

早盘收盘，国内期货主力合约多数上涨。铝合金涨超4%，苯乙烯（EB）涨超3%，20号胶（NR）涨超 2%。跌幅方面，沪锌跌超1%，不锈钢（SS）、沪镍跌近1%。 ...

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Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the futures market for casting aluminum alloys has experienced a comprehensive increase, marking a successful debut on its first trading day [1] - Institutional analysis suggests that the November contract corresponding to AD2511 is expected to show a strong trend, while the contract for May of the following year is anticipated to perform relatively weaker [1]

2025 年 6 月 10 日 生猪：降重初启动，等待现货印证 | 周小球 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | | | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | | wuhao8@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 13900 | | -100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 13750 | | -100 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 15140 | | 0 | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2507 | 元/吨 | 13070 | | -20 | | | | 生猪2509 | 元/吨 | 13475 | | 15 | | | 期 货 | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | 13300 | | -35 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for silver to replicate the bullish market trend seen in gold, particularly as silver prices approach $37 [1] - It highlights the sensitivity of silver to policy changes and the impact of a weakening dollar, suggesting that these macroeconomic factors are fueling a new bull market for silver [1] - There is a warning about high volatility in the market, with a possibility of significant price movements in June, similar to those experienced in gold markets [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding open interest in futures contracts, indicating that there may be hidden risks for investors [1] - It suggests strategies for retail investors to avoid being trapped at market peaks during potential price surges [1]

Core Insights - The global cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant changes, with SHIB's token burn rate soaring to 5762.9%, while Bitcoin's network transaction volume has dropped to 317,000, marking a two-year low. Additionally, BlackRock's IBIT holdings have surpassed $69.5 billion, with over 660,000 Bitcoins held [1] Group 1: Leverage and Derivatives - SHIB's open interest weighted funding rate has turned positive at 0.0048%, indicating a slow shift of funds towards long positions. This change highlights the fundamental differences between leverage and contract systems [3] - The OKX liquidation heatmap reveals a significant number of vulnerable short positions between $0.0000132 and $0.0000133, illustrating the distinct impacts of leverage and contract functionalities on market dynamics [3] - XBIT decentralized trading platform utilizes advanced risk management algorithms to help users find an optimal balance between leverage and contract tools [3] Group 2: Political Economy and Market Psychology - The political fallout from the Trump-Musk alliance has emerged as a critical variable affecting the cryptocurrency market, influencing investor preferences for leverage and contract tools through market sentiment [4] - Increased uncertainty leads to higher emotional sensitivity in leverage trading, while contract trading offers a more refined risk pricing mechanism, allowing investors to construct robust hedging strategies during market volatility [4] - As SHIB's deflationary pressure increases and address activity rises, market sentiment is transitioning from panic to rationality, reflecting investors' macroeconomic outlook [4] Group 3: Decentralized Financial Infrastructure - XBIT is exploring the integration of biometric technology with blockchain to enhance the security model of derivative trading, utilizing zero-knowledge proof technology and multi-signature transaction architecture [6] - The non-custodial model of XBIT ensures users maintain complete control over their assets, mitigating platform risks while providing enhanced trading privacy [6] - Investors are encouraged to understand the intrinsic logic of various trading tools and align them with their risk preferences and investment goals to achieve sustainable investment success in the evolving cryptocurrency market [6]

Group 1 - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance at midday, with industrial silicon and pulp rising over 2% [1] - Silver and styrene (EB) increased by more than 1.5% [1] - In contrast, apple prices fell by over 3%, while shipping on the European route and polysilicon dropped more than 2% [1]

Core Insights - The 2025 Japan International Blockchain Technology Exhibition will take place in April and October, showcasing the latest advancements and applications in blockchain technology [1] - The event aims to provide a platform for communication and learning, promoting the dissemination and collaboration of blockchain technology [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The exhibition will be held in two phases at Tokyo Big Sight and Makuhari Messe in Chiba, scheduled for April 15-17 and October 8-10, 2025 [1] - RXJapan Co., Ltd., a reputable company in the exhibition industry, is the organizer of the event [1] Group 2: Exhibition Features - The exhibition will focus on showcasing the latest blockchain technologies and solutions, including innovations in smart contracts, decentralized finance (DeFi), and digital asset management [2] - Multiple forums and seminars will be set up, inviting industry experts to share insights on application cases, industry trends, and policy environments [2] - Networking opportunities will be provided for participants from various fields to establish connections and explore collaboration [2] - Startups will have a platform to showcase their products and services, attracting investor attention and promoting innovation in blockchain technology [2] - Training courses will be offered to enhance participants' understanding of blockchain technology, covering foundational knowledge, development skills, and market analysis [2] Group 3: Industry Impact - The exhibition is expected to attract a large number of exhibitors and attendees from around the world, enhancing Japan's influence in the blockchain sector [5] - Japan has made significant progress in blockchain research and application, with many companies actively involved in related projects [5] - The event aims to further develop Japan's blockchain ecosystem and attract more international investment and collaboration [5] Group 4: Event Management - RXJapan Co., Ltd. will implement advanced exhibition management systems to optimize processes such as exhibitor registration and attendee management [5] - The event will prioritize safety and health to ensure a secure environment for communication and learning [5] Group 5: Conclusion - The 2025 Japan International Blockchain Technology Exhibition is anticipated to be a significant industry event, offering valuable knowledge and experience sharing for both professionals and the general public [7] - The exhibition is expected to foster innovation and collaboration, injecting new vitality into the future development of blockchain technology [7]