美国6月失业率录得4.1%，数据意外下降。 美国失业率意外下降 ...

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending June 28 was 233,000, which is lower than the expected 240,000 [1] - The previous week's figure was revised from 236,000 to 237,000 [1]

美国6月失业率报4.1%，市场预估为4.3%，前值为4.2%。 ...

美国6月失业率 4.1%，预期4.3%，前值4.20%。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for June, as well as average hourly earnings month-over-month and year-over-year, May trade balance, and last week's initial jobless claims data are set to be released shortly [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming release of key economic indicators, including the US non-farm payroll report for June, the US trade balance for May, and the initial jobless claims for the week ending June 28 [1] - Additionally, it mentions the Canadian trade balance for May, indicating a focus on both US and Canadian economic data [1]

以下文章来源于金十数据 ，作者金十数据 金十数据 . 金十数据官方服务号。汇聚金融投资行业的各类数据和资讯，数据资讯快、准、全。 来源 | 金十财经 北京时间周四晚8点30分，美国劳工统计局将公布6月非农就业报告， 经济学家预计6月份非农就 业人数将增加11万，较上个月的13.9万有所放缓，失业率将从4.2%小幅升至4.3%，同比时薪增速 将维持在3.9%不变，环比增速将从5月的0.4%放缓至0.3%。 摩根士丹利首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen在给客户的一份报告中写道，"我们认为劳动力需求 正在放缓，但到目前为止， 放缓的幅度是温和的。 " 若非农数据符合预期，这将使美联储保持在9月降息的轨道上，这也符合投资者目前通过期货市 场的预期。然而， 任何更快恶化的迹象，都将增加市场对美联储在即将到来的7月29-30日政策会 议上提前行动的押注。 牛津经济研究院的首席美国经济学家Nancy Vanden Houten在一份报告中说，"6月份疲软的就业 市场是未来趋势的一个信号，我们预计，由于关税和高度的政策不确定性，今年剩余时间的就业 增长趋势将会减弱。" 另一方面， 特朗普政府停止移民和加强驱逐出境的努 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is expected to show signs of slowing down in June, with an anticipated unemployment rate increase to 4.3%, the highest in three and a half years [1] - Non-farm payrolls are projected to increase by 110,000 in June, down from 139,000 in May and below the three-month average of 135,000 [1][2] - The average hourly wage growth is expected to remain steady at 0.3%, with an annualized increase of 3.9% [1] Group 2 - The proportion of consumers who believe "job opportunities are plentiful" fell to the lowest level in over four years in June [4] - Economists predict that the unemployment rate will continue to rise in the second half of the year, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to restart its easing cycle in September [4] - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% in June, with a 74.7% probability of keeping rates unchanged in July and a 71.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September [4][5] Group 3 - A rising trend in layoffs is contributing to a decrease in re-employment opportunities, which explains the expected rise in the unemployment rate [3] - The labor market is facing challenges due to hiring fatigue, while layoffs remain low as employers continue to struggle with recruitment post-pandemic [2] Group 4 - The healthcare sector is likely to remain a key employment driver, while the leisure and hospitality industry may see reduced job applications due to fears of deportation among immigrants [6] - The manufacturing sector continues to be constrained by tariffs, and the trend of mild reductions in federal government jobs persists [6]

周四（7月3日）欧市盘中，白银期货震荡偏强，最新沪银主力报8960元/千克，涨幅2.02%，最高上探至 8964元/千克，最低触及8781元/千克。 特朗普政府近期撤销了数十万移民的临时合法身份，这一政策直接导致劳动力资源萎缩。一些经济学家 认为，这可能限制失业率上升的空间。他们估计，美国经济每月仅需新增不到10万个就业岗位，就能维 持失业率的稳定。然而，移民政策的不确定性已经对特定行业造成了显著影响。例如，休闲和酒店业因 部分移民因担心驱逐而减少外出活动，新增就业岗位可能受到抑制。建筑业和制造业也因类似担忧和关 税压力面临就业增长放缓的挑战。 【技术面分析】 从当前走势来看，本周期沪银整体仍保持多头趋势。下方存在有力支撑，分别位于8700点和8600点。接 下来，市场目光将聚焦于本周的数据情况。这些数据将对沪银走势产生重要影响。 【要闻速递】 根据路透社对经济学家的调查，6月失业率预计将从4.2%升至4.3%，达到2021年10月以来的最高水平。 尽管裁员率整体仍保持较低水平，但近期裁员人数有所增加，而招聘活动的放缓使得失业者重新就业的 机会减少。这不仅推高了失业率预期，也让经济学家们开始预测失业率可能在2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated unemployment rate in the United States for June, with various financial institutions providing their forecasts, predominantly centered around a rate of 4.2% to 4.4% [1] Group 1: Forecasts by Financial Institutions - Multiple banks, including BNP Paribas, Barclays, and Mizuho, predict the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2% [1] - A group of banks, such as Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan, project a slight increase to 4.3% [1] - Citigroup stands out with a forecast of 4.4%, indicating a potential upward trend in the unemployment rate [1]