尊敬的审阅人员和品鉴读者：本文是经过严格查阅相关权威文献和资料。 全文数据有据可依，可供查证。 你有没有发现，俄罗斯缓过劲儿来之后，转头就对中国下手了？ 我第一次看到那个弹性关税政策，脑子直接卡了三秒。不是因为政策有多复杂，而是这个时间点、这个力度，实在让人不好不多想。2025年才刚开年，中俄 贸易额就同比下降了6.6%。尤其是汽车和能源这两个压舱石，双双滑坡，说不急是不可能的。 我后来想通了一点：不是中国突然对抗，而是现实逼着你不得不算账。谁在关键时刻拎不清，谁就得先吃亏。 我查了下，问题出在俄罗斯那边的出口政策。俄方宣布对大部分商品施加弹性出口关税，税率和卢布挂钩。这话听着耳熟，其实和去年乌克兰局势激化时的 那套稳汇率打法如出一辙。但这次不同，以前中俄之间还算有默契，这次没打招呼，俄罗斯就直接把化肥这种重要物资的出口税提到10%，算不算变脸，你 自己判断。 石油、天然气是暂时没进清单，但影响已经显现出来了。2025年第一季度，中国从俄罗斯进口原油2431万吨，同比直接砍掉了14.7%。这是一个什么概念？ 原油不是大白菜，能砍掉这么多，说明不只是采购量问题，而是战略态度变了。 那俄罗斯为啥突然这么搞？说白了 ...

投资策略 · 固定收益 2025年第七期 0755-22940745 zhaojing@guosen.com.cn S0980513080004 债海观潮，大势研判 票息为主，积极持券 证券分析师：赵婧 证券分析师：季家辉 021-61761056 jijiahui@guosen.com.cn S0980522010002 0755-22940456 lizn@guosen.com.cn S0980516060001 证券研究报告 | 2025年07月08日 证券分析师：李智能 0755-81982035 tiandi2@guosen.com.cn S0980524090003 证券分析师：董德志 021-60933158 dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980513100001 证券分析师：田地 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 Ø 行情回顾：6月所有债券品种收益率下行；利率债方面，6月短期限品种收益率下行更为显著；信 用债方面，高等级和短期限品种信用利差走阔；违约方面，6月违约金额略有上升但整体保持今年 偏低水平； Ø 海外基本 ...

供应增长的前景通常会导致价格下跌。然而，市场对此次扩大增产幅度的消息反应迟钝。很多观点认为 实际产量不会像公布的那样增加。原因是伊拉克等此前产量过剩的国家…… 作为美国指标的WTI（西德克萨斯中质原油）期货的盘前盘后交易在亚洲时间7月7日上午比 前一个交易日下跌2%，徘徊在65美元/桶左右。作为欧洲指标的北海布伦特原油期货仅下跌 1%。 供应增长的前景通常会导致价格下跌。4～5月宣布超出市场预期的增产时，原油价格一度降 至55美元左右，恐慌性抛售扩大。 然而，市场对此次扩大增产幅度的消息反应迟钝。 很多观点认为实际产量不会像公布的那样增加。欧佩克6月16日公布的月报显示，8个国家的 5月产量比上月增加约15万桶/日。明显低于4月公布的41.1万桶的增产目标值。 伊拉克和哈萨克斯坦等超过欧佩克配额过度生产的国家，已经开始压缩产量。月报显示，伊 拉克5月的产量比上月日均减少了5万桶。 原油价格徘徊在60美元/桶左右。石油输出国组织（OPEC）和俄罗斯等未加入的产油国组成 的"欧佩克+（OPEC+）"已决定8月进一步增产，但市场认为短期内供需状况不会缓解，反应 相对冷静。伊拉克等此前产量过剩的国家已开始压缩产量，削 ...

光伏50ETF跟踪的是光伏产业指数，该指数由中证指数有限公司编制，从沪深市场中选取主营业务涉及 光伏产业链的上市公司证券作为指数样本，涵盖上游材料、中游制造及下游应用等环节，以全面反映光 伏产业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数具有鲜明的行业特征和成长性，能够有效表征光伏产业的 发展态势。 消息面上，2025年7月6日国家能源局发布公告显示，5月全国新增建档立卡新能源发电（不含户用光 伏）项目规模持续扩大，同时南方区域电力市场启动连续结算试运行，覆盖五省区并实现全球最大统一 出清现货电力市场，标志着全国统一电力市场建设取得重大进展。7月5日六部委联合发文鼓励发展分布 式能源，明确推动港口机械使用绿电等清洁能源，山西同日明确6月1日起并网的新能源项目暂按月度实 时市场加权均价结算。 兴业证券指出，光伏行业当前面临深度调整，多晶硅料环节价格已逼近龙头企业现金成本线，行业普遍 亏损，需通过供给侧协同优化及约束非理性竞争来打破内卷困局。光伏玻璃环节因产能刚性和自律减产 经验，预计2025年7月起将通过主动缩减供给，缓解库存压力并修复价格体系。电池组件环节技术迭代 加速，BC技术与TOPCon3.0转换效率竞争白热化， ...

Group 1 - The core message of the letters sent by President Trump to Japan and South Korea emphasizes that the current bilateral trade relations are "far from reciprocal" and that a 25% tariff is insufficient to correct trade imbalances [1][4][5] - The new tariff rates announced by Trump will take effect on August 1, with specific rates for various countries, including 25% for Japan and South Korea, and varying rates for others such as 32% for Indonesia and 36% for Thailand [2][3][5] - The letters to Japan and South Korea were nearly identical, with only the country names and leaders' names differing, indicating a standardized approach to communication regarding trade tariffs [1][3] Group 2 - The new tariff rates represent either a slight increase or a maintenance of previous rates, with some countries seeing reductions, such as Kazakhstan and Tunisia, where rates were lowered from 27% to 25% and from 28% to 25%, respectively [2][3] - The Trump administration has indicated that the new 25% tariffs will be applied in addition to existing tariffs on specific sectors like automobiles and steel, which will be treated separately [5][7] - The U.S. government has paused the increase of additional tariffs on China until August 12, indicating a strategic approach to trade negotiations with different countries [7]

Group 1 - The South African presidency urges the government trade negotiation team and local businesses to accelerate diversification efforts [1] - South Africa will continue to promote a more balanced and mutually beneficial trade relationship with the United States through diplomatic efforts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia continues to believe that inflation risks have become more balanced, while the labor market remains strong [1] Group 1 - The RBA's assessment indicates a shift in the perception of inflation risks, suggesting a more stable outlook [1] - The strength of the labor market is highlighted, indicating robust employment conditions [1]

Core Insights - July 8 marks the 21st "World Allergy Day," highlighting the increased incidence of allergic diseases during the hot and humid summer months, particularly for skin allergy patients [1] - Allergies are characterized as abnormal immune responses, indicating an imbalance rather than a strong immune system, leading to excessive self-protection against foreign invaders [1] Group 1: Types of Allergic Skin Diseases - Common allergic skin diseases include urticaria, eczema, and atopic dermatitis, with urticaria being a prevalent condition characterized by itchy wheals that can resolve within hours to a day [2] - Eczema is a severe inflammatory skin reaction triggered by various internal and external factors, with a significant link to genetic predisposition and environmental changes [2] - Atopic dermatitis is a chronic, recurrent inflammatory skin disease associated with genetic allergic predisposition, often co-occurring with other allergic conditions like allergic rhinitis and asthma [2] Group 2: Prevention and Management - For patients with a history of allergic diseases, identifying and avoiding allergens is crucial for prevention, alongside maintaining a healthy lifestyle to boost immune function [2] - Recommendations for summer include avoiding sun exposure during peak hours, wearing protective gear, and minimizing time spent in environments prone to insect activity [2] - Severe allergic reactions can lead to life-threatening symptoms such as chest tightness and anaphylactic shock, necessitating immediate observation and treatment [3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年7月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：Czarnikow：25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩750万吨。USDA：预计25/26年度全球食糖产 量同比增长4.7%，消费增长1.4%，过剩1139.7万吨。2025年5月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计 产糖1116.21万吨；全国累计销糖811.38万吨；销糖率72.69%（去年同期66.17%）。2025年5月中 国进口食糖35万吨，同比增加33万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计6.42万吨，同比减少15.07万 吨。偏空。 6、预期：郑糖主力09受压5800关口，短期震荡回落。目前国内产白 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the health challenges faced by aviation personnel during high-temperature summer operations and outlines the innovative measures taken by Sichuan Airlines' Shaanxi branch to ensure employee health and safety during this period [1][2]. Group 1: Health Issues and Statistics - According to the Civil Aviation Administration's "2021-2023 Health White Paper," health issues such as heatstroke and dehydration during the summer transportation period account for 18% of similar problems throughout the year [1]. - The article emphasizes the need for effective health management strategies in response to the ongoing high-temperature conditions affecting aviation staff [2]. Group 2: Innovative Health Management Measures - Sichuan Airlines' Shaanxi branch has introduced a "graded heat prevention" health protection plan tailored to the high-temperature climate of Xi'an, providing comprehensive health safeguards for outdoor workers [1]. - The "thermal balance health management" concept is introduced, which combines a 60°C environment with a -22°C rehydration drink to maintain a safe body temperature of 36.5°C for workers [1]. Group 3: Specific Initiatives and Supplies - The health office has established a graded heat prevention system, equipping ground staff with oral rehydration salts, glucose drinks, and honeysuckle drinks as part of a specialized heat prevention list [2]. - On the first day of the summer transportation period, 52 bags of chilled sour plum soup were prepared for frontline personnel, with plans to supply 60 bags on the first day of each of the three phases of the hottest days [2]. - A three-tiered protection mechanism has been implemented to address mild discomfort, physical exhaustion, and daily prevention, ensuring timely and appropriate responses to health issues [2]. Group 4: Ongoing Health Education and Supply Management - The health office actively conducts health education to remind employees to manage work schedules, protect themselves, and stay hydrated [2]. - A dynamic drug supply mechanism has been established to ensure sufficient availability of heat prevention materials, with ongoing monitoring of local high-temperature weather to optimize cooling measures [2].