"金发姑娘"市场指经济与政策"刚刚好"的平衡状态，当增长适中、通胀温和且流动性充裕时，为多资产上涨提供温 床。但这种环境脆弱易变，华尔街金融巨头高盛所列出的美国经济滞胀或增长下坠、长债收益率上行冲击、美元失序 三大风险若其一兑现，都可能打破这份"恰到好处"的宁静市场环境。 智通财经APP获悉，经历特朗普关税政策最初冲击后，美国股市基准股指——标普500指数迎来了史上最快步伐之一的 指数复苏进程，与此同时在史无前例AI热潮推动的英伟达、微软以及谷歌等高权重科技巨头强劲上涨带动下，堪称"全 球科技股风向标"的纳斯达克100指数同样创下新高且涨势比标普500指数更加猛烈。但是，高盛一份最新报告指出，所 谓"金发姑娘"(Goldilocks，经济不冷不热、刚刚好，维持适度增长和稳定低通胀)式的乐观上涨环境面临三大关键风险 因素。 截至周三美股收盘时，标普500指数收涨至6263点，较4月低点上涨了29%，在历史最高点位徘徊——距离历史最高点 位6284点仅一步之遥。全球股市基准指数——MSCI全球股指同样在近日创下历史新高，主要因AI热潮席卷全球带动科 技股大涨，以及地缘政治紧张局势缓和与市场对美联储年内降息的预期增 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, with an overall view of bullish operation [1][5] - Due to the existing Middle - East geopolitical risks, the crude oil premium has increased. After a previous significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has strengthened again, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. With the arrival of the Northern Hemisphere's summer peak oil - consumption season, the demand factor for crude oil has come into play. The market sentiment has recovered as Trump extended the grace period for reciprocal tariffs. Supported by a bullish atmosphere, the domestic and international crude oil futures prices maintained a narrow - range oscillatory consolidation trend on Wednesday night. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillatory and bullish trend on Thursday [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Crude Oil (SC) - **Price and Change**: The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract slightly declined by 0.02% to 510.5 yuan/barrel on Wednesday night [5] - **View and Logic**: The intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is bullish operation. The core logic is the Middle - East geopolitical risks, the rebound of bullish confidence, the peak oil - consumption season, and the recovery of market sentiment [1][5]

此外，由于非农就业数据与其他宏观经济数据持续显现韧性，美联储降息预期可谓大幅降温——从预期降息75 基点大幅降至预期降息不到50基点，叠加特朗普所主导的"大而美"法案通过后政府预算赤字可能大举扩张，再 加上日本参议院大选临近带来的政府支出预期动荡导致日本长期限国债收益率大幅上升带来的债市抛售溢出效 应，这些因素共同加剧了近期全球国债收益率的持续上行压力。 智通财经APP获悉，随着参议院大选临近引发市场对于日本财政将大举扩张的担忧情绪，将于周四进行的20年期 日本政府债券(JGB)拍卖，将使得全球投资者目光再度聚焦日本长期限(10年及以上)国债收益率会否持续攀升， 投资者们愈发担忧日本长期限国债需求疲软进而引发新一轮席卷全球金融市场的"日本国债风暴"。 20年期日本国债收益率创25年高位，选举阴云考验全球债市神经 从美债期货市场解除对于美债的一些大额看涨押注以及SOFR市场的押注来看，有着"全球资产定价之锚"称号的 10年期美债收益率以及更长期限的美债收益率可能持续迈向显著上行轨迹，令近期涨势如虹且屡创新高的全球 股市面临重大考验。 本周全球各大债市频繁发债，部分长期主权债券收益率上行凸显出投资者们对于预算赤字 ...

折溢价套利分为折价套利（买赎套利）和溢价套利（申卖套利）。当ETF二级市场价格低于实时参考净 值时，这种情况称为"折价"。当ETF二级市场价格高于实时参考净值，这种情况称为"溢价"。 ETF具有丰富的套利策略，投资者可根据自身投资研究能力及风险偏好程度选择相应的策略。目前市场 上较为流行的套利策略有三种，即折溢价套利、日内波段套利、事件套利。 （1）折溢价套利策略 投资者针对ETF一级市场申购、赎回与二级市场买卖之间价差进行套利。当ETF二级市场价格（实时交 易价格）与一级市场价格（实时计算的基金份额参考净值IOPV）存在价差时，且该价差在覆盖各项套 利成本后仍有盈余，投资者可以利用ETF的一、二级市场联动机制进行套利。套利成本主要分为交易成 本和冲击成本，其中的交易成本包括交易ETF的佣金和交易股票的佣金、印花税和过户费。 选自深圳证券交易所基金管理部编著的《深交所ETF投资问答》（中国财政经济出版社2024年版） 折价率=（实时参考净值-市场价格）/实时参考净值 （文章来源：证券日报） 当折价率大于套利成本时，投资者可以进行折价套利，即买入ETF份额并赎回得到一篮子股票，而后卖 出股票。 折溢价套利的具体 ...

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 07 月 09 日 | | | | 航运日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 第一部分 | | | 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） | | | | | | | | 银河期货集运指数（欧线） | 日报 | | | | | | | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2508 | 2,012.5 | 6.3 | 0.31% | 25,398.0 | -55.96% | 31,348.0 | -10.58% | | EC2510 | 1,390.0 | -4.7 | -0.34% | 10,290.0 | -52.16% | 29,642.0 | -2.58% | | EC2512 | 1,553.7 | -21.6 | -1.37% | 2,085.0 | -44.15% | 6,098.0 | -1.26% | | EC2602 | 1,353.4 ...

早盘速递 2025/7/9 热点资讯 1. 利比里亚代表团向国际海事组织报告，胡塞武装袭击也门荷台达附近由希腊运营、悬挂利比里亚国旗的"ETERNITY C"船 只后，两人遇难。航运分析显示，这是自2024年6月以来红海首次发生海员遇难事件。 重点关注 焦煤、纯苯、甲醇、尿素、沥青 夜盘表现 板块表现 -0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 2.82% 贵金属, 27.55% 油脂油料, 12.51% 有色, 20.69% 软商品, 2.84% 煤焦钢矿, 13.84% 能源, 3.11% 化工, 12.69% 谷物, 1.18% 农副产品, 2.77% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (300,000) (200,000) (100,000 ...

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates a rebound in the US dollar, with expectations for the euro to rise to 1.20 in the long term, despite potential short-term corrections [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index outperformed European stock markets in June, reversing a trend of underperformance over the previous five months [1] - The yield premium on long-term US Treasury bonds has decreased from high levels, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [1] Group 2: Economic Policy Impact - The current market order is perceived as more stable compared to the period following the large-scale tariff policies introduced in April [1] - Investors seem to believe that the impacts of US policies may not be as severe as previously feared [1] Group 3: Currency Forecast - The euro is expected to rise to 1.20 against the dollar over the next 12 months, although there is room for further short-term corrections [1]

港股IPO市场热度持续升温。7月9日，由中信证券独家保荐的蓝思科技于香港联交所主板上 市，绿鞋后发行规模54.83亿港元（足额行使的前提下），成为中信证券 2025 年内港股 IPO 中融资规模最大的项目。 不仅仅是蓝思科技的港股上市， 7月9日，对港交所来说，又迎来"铜锣不够用"的一天，还有 讯众通信、大众口腔、极智嘉-W、峰岹科技等共5家企业今日港股上市，包括一家ETF上市， 现场同时敲响6面铜锣。 回顾上半年，港股IPO市场的主推力无疑来自"A股+H股"模式的热潮。一批A股大型企业赴港 上市，不仅为港股注入强劲动力，更有龙头企业凭借可观的融资规模跻身全球IPO融资前十。 A股企业的二次上市浪潮，也直接推动港交所上半年融资规模达到880亿港元，重回全球首 位。 下半年才刚启程，就迎来蓝思科技的H股发行上市，47.68亿港元的融资规模仅次于宁德时 代、恒瑞医药、海天味业、三花智控，跻身前五。这一A+H的上市案例则呈现多项关键性突 破。 一是这是香港市场近二十年来首个投行独家保荐完成的千亿市值以上A to H项目； 二是香港市场消费科技领域今年以来最大规模的IPO； 三是自递交H股以来，从申请上市到完成H股上 ...

亚洲溢价显著推升原油市场 多空博弈进入拉锯阶段 一、日度市场总结 从原油期货数据来看，中国SC原油价格单日上涨1.67%至510.7元/桶，而 WTI和Brent连续两日维持67.92和69.6美元/桶不变，凸显亚洲市场活跃度 提升。价差层面，SC-Brent和SC-WTI价差分别扩大290%和57%，创出1.6和 3.28美元/桶新高，反映中国原油期货相对外盘的溢价显著增强。与此同 时，SC近月合约升水连3合约价差从14.8元扩大到17.8元，近月合约强势表 明短期交割品存在结构性紧缺。 供需格局变化显示多重博弈。供应端利空因素正在积聚：沙特4月原油出口 环比增加41.2万桶/日，印证OPEC+产量政策松动；利比亚大型油田重启勘 探及美国与印尼签署原油采购协议，均指向中长期供应增量。但中东地缘 风险提供支撑，以色列与胡塞武装冲突升级刺激油价盘中反弹，不过市场 普遍认为冲突扩散概率较低。需求端呈现区域分化：山东独立炼厂本周到 港量环比下滑7.5%至136.5万吨，反映中国地方炼厂采购节奏放缓，但欧美 旺季需求强劲成为支撑，IEA口径表观消费增速超预期推动WTI盘中收复跌 幅。 库存变化释放微妙信号。中质含硫原 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese land market in the first half of the year shows a "frozen and fiery" situation, with core cities experiencing fierce competition for high-quality land, while third and fourth-tier cities remain cold [1][12] - The total land transfer revenue from 300 cities reached 859.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, despite a 5.5% decrease in transaction area [3][12] - The top 20 cities accounted for 68% of the national land transfer revenue, with second-tier cities surpassing first-tier cities in average premium rates [2][4] Land Market Performance - In the first half of the year, 19 cities had land transfer revenues exceeding 10 billion yuan, with Hangzhou and Beijing each surpassing 100 billion yuan [4][5] - Hangzhou's total transaction amount reached 116.1 billion yuan, a 96% increase year-on-year, nearing its total for the entire year of 2024 [5] - Beijing's residential land transaction total was 100.6 billion yuan, up 37.3% year-on-year, driven by high-value and scarce land parcels [5] Regional Disparities - Shanghai's residential land transactions totaled 63.8 billion yuan, with an additional 80 billion yuan from private agreements, bringing the total to over 140 billion yuan [6] - Chengdu increased the supply of quality land, with 56 parcels sold, 28 of which had premiums, including one with a premium rate of 106% [7] - In contrast, cities like Wuhan, Nanjing, Zhengzhou, and Tianjin saw most land sold at base prices due to large inventory and cautious investment from developers [8] Premium Rates and Investment Trends - The average premium rate for residential land across 300 cities was 10.2%, an increase of 6 percentage points year-on-year [11] - First-tier cities saw a 49.5% increase in land transfer revenue, while second-tier cities experienced an 18.3% increase in transaction area and a 43.5% increase in land transfer revenue [12] - The average premium rate for second-tier cities reached 13.6%, surpassing that of first-tier cities, indicating a shift in investment focus [12] Future Outlook - Companies are expected to prioritize project safety and profitability, with core areas in hot cities likely to maintain high premium transactions, while third and fourth-tier cities will continue to see base price sales [15]