油料产业风险管理日报 2025/06/09 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 靳晚冬（期货从业证号：F03118199） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 油料价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕：2800-3300 | 11.1% | 11.5% | | 菜粕：2450-2750 | 0.1765 | 0.3218 | source： 南华研究,同花顺 油料套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 贸易商库存 | 蛋白库存偏高，担心粕类价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据在企业库存情况，做空豆粕期货来锁定利 | M250 | 卖出 | 25% | 3300-34 | | 管理 | | | 润，弥补企业的生产成 ...

Core Insights - The USDA drought report indicates a reduction in the percentage of U.S. soybean areas affected by drought, suggesting a potential easing of weather-related concerns in the agricultural sector [1] Group 1: Drought Impact on Soybeans - The proportion of U.S. soybean areas impacted by drought has decreased, which may influence market dynamics and pricing strategies for agricultural commodities [1] - The report raises questions about when the weather-related speculation window will open, indicating ongoing uncertainty in the agricultural market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the stock price of Jinling Sports is driven by speculative trading amidst a lack of solid fundamentals, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [1][2]. Group 1: Market Activity - The Jiangsu Provincial Urban Football League (Su Super) has sparked interest in the sports industry, leading to a nearly 15% increase in the sports index since May [1]. - Jinling Sports has seen its stock price double in just five trading days, with three consecutive days of "20cm" limit up [1][2]. - Institutional investors have shown limited interest in Jinling Sports, with the last research report published over a year ago [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Jinling Sports reported its largest quarterly loss since its listing in Q1 2024, with a revenue of 51.68 million yuan, down 26.09% year-on-year [4]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders fell to a loss of 8.82 million yuan, marking a 2203.24% decline compared to the previous year [4]. - For the full year 2024, Jinling Sports expects a revenue decline of 27.3% to 373 million yuan and a net profit drop of 60% to 26.76 million yuan [4]. Group 3: Business Operations - Jinling Sports' main business includes sports equipment, venue facilities integration, and sports information, with the highest revenue coming from ball equipment [5]. - In 2024, revenue from ball equipment decreased to 162 million yuan, a 28% drop, while event services revenue plummeted 72% to 17.59 million yuan [5]. - The company is exploring new business models, focusing on both B2B and B2C strategies to enhance sports consumption experiences [6].

油料产业风险管理日报 2025/05/28 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 靳晚冬（期货从业证号：F03118199） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 油料价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕：2800-3300 | 12.0% | 1.9% | | 菜粕：2450-2750 | 0.1785 | 0.106 | source： 南华研究 油料套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 贸易商库存 | 蛋白库存偏高，担心粕类价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据在企业库存情况，做空豆粕期货来锁定利 | M250 | 卖出 | 25% | 3300-34 | | 管理 | | | 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | 9 ...

永安药业（002365）发布股票交易严重异常波动暨风险提示公告，公司股票交易价格于2025年5月15日 至2025年5月28日连续十个交易日内收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超过100%，属于股票交易严重异常波动情 形。近期公司股价短期涨幅较大，已严重偏离公司基本面，存在较高的炒作风险。2025年一季度，公司 处于亏损状态。公司特别提醒投资者注意投资风险，理性决策，审慎投资。 ...

期货热点追踪 美玉米优良率创6年最差开局，后续关注重点有哪些？6月后将迎来天气炒作季，美豆价格将如何运行？ 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - The market is currently in a bull market characterized by speculative trading in popular stocks, despite a seemingly stagnant overall market performance [1] - The trading volume has decreased to below one trillion, indicating a lack of new capital entering the market, leading to a focus on a limited number of well-known stocks [1] - Investors are experiencing significant divergence in performance, with those holding popular stocks seeing gains while others may face prolonged losses [1] Group 2 - The weaker the overall market, the stronger the effect of speculative stocks, which can lead to high returns but also high risks [2] - There is a recommendation to limit investments in speculative stocks to a maximum of 10% of the portfolio to manage risk effectively [2] - A live session is scheduled every trading day at noon to share the latest investment opportunities [2]

美豆价格小幅上涨，天气炒作能否推动价格持续走高？需求增速超供应会否推动玉米价格回升？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Zhongyida has experienced a significant surge, with a nearly 300% increase since March 10, driven by the soaring price of its subsidiary's product, dipentene [2][3][6]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On May 26, Zhongyida's stock closed at 16.09 yuan per share, with a daily increase of 9.9% and a trading volume of 2.054 billion yuan, resulting in a turnover rate of 18.78% [1]. - The stock has risen from over 4 yuan to over 16 yuan, marking a cumulative increase of 299.26% [3]. - On May 21, the trading volume exceeded 4 billion yuan, with a turnover rate surpassing 32% [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Zhongyida reported a net loss of 128 million yuan in 2023 and 14.08 million yuan in 2024, despite a turnaround in Q1 2023 with a net profit of approximately 13.76 million yuan compared to a loss of 10.39 million yuan in the same period last year [3]. - The company has warned that its stock price is significantly detached from its fundamentals, with a market-to-book ratio far exceeding the industry average [3]. Group 3: Product and Market Dynamics - The surge in Zhongyida's stock is closely linked to the price increase of dipentene, which has risen to between 65,000 and 81,500 yuan per ton, compared to around 32,000 yuan per ton a year ago [6]. - Zhongyida has a dipentene production capacity of 43,000 tons, ranking second in China, while Hubei Yihua leads with a capacity of 60,000 tons [6]. - The demand for dipentene is growing in downstream industries, particularly in high-performance coatings and polymer materials, which are increasingly reliant on this product [7]. Group 4: Risks and Warnings - Zhongyida has issued a risk warning regarding its stock price, indicating potential suspension of trading if significant anomalies continue [2][3]. - The company has also highlighted the risk of goodwill impairment, with a recorded impairment loss of 49.99 million yuan in 2023 and a goodwill value of 160 million yuan against a net asset value of 81.01 million yuan [4].

雪龙集团（603949）发布异动公告，外部流通股占比为29.20%，相对较小，可能存在非理性炒作风 险。目前公司静态市盈率78.74，滚动市盈率80.26，均显著偏离同行业平均水平。经公司自查，公司目 前生产经营正常。市场环境、行业政策没有发生重大调整，生产成本和销售等情况没有出现大幅波动， 内部生产经营秩序正常。 ...