店均高速增长，开店节奏稳健，注重品牌系统性工程建设 Strong Average Store Growth, Steady Expansion Pace, Focusing on Systematic Brand Development 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou 陈芳园 Ashley Chen [Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 26 May 2025 潮宏基 CHJ Industry (002345 CH) yy.kou@htisec.com ashley.fy.chen@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件：5 月 23 日，海通国际海外消费组调研潮宏基总部，参加公司高管交流会。公司管理层表示终端增速自 2024 年 四季度开始提升，2025 年 4 月份店均增速约 45%，5 月初至 5 月 20 日增速约为 30%。5 月门店人流量在五一假期后 有所下滑，主要是受节日透支效应影响。 ...

Group 1: Global Long-Term Interest Rates - Goldman Sachs predicts that global long-term interest rates will continue to rise, with the speed of this increase being crucial as it may trigger systemic risks in financial markets [1][2] - The current slow pace of interest rate increases has limited impacts on the stock market, but a rapid rise could lead to significant declines and tighten financial conditions [2][6] Group 2: United States - Concerns about the sustainability of the U.S. fiscal deficit are resurfacing, particularly with the new fiscal legislation that does not intend to reduce borrowing [3][4] - Goldman Sachs estimates that the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds could exceed 6%, driven by a combination of potential growth rates and persistent deficits [6][17] - The U.S. government is unlikely to reduce spending significantly, and any intervention by the Federal Reserve or Treasury may only provide temporary relief [5][6] Group 3: Europe - Weak economic data and escalating trade conflicts have led to expectations of a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in June, with inflation forecasts falling below targets [7][8] - The ECB is expected to lower growth and inflation projections, and a 25 basis point cut would bring the policy rate down to 2% [8][19] - Market reactions to potential rate cuts have been muted, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy [10][19] Group 4: United Kingdom - The UK's service sector inflation has exceeded expectations, providing justification for a more hawkish stance from the Bank of England [11][12] - Upcoming wage data will be critical in determining the future direction of monetary policy, with high wage growth potentially undermining rate cut expectations [12][19] - Despite high inflation, market responses have been relatively calm, suggesting that the potential for further rate cuts is already priced in [12][19] Group 5: Japan - Japan's long-term bond market is facing structural challenges as life insurance companies shift from being net buyers to net sellers of long-term bonds [13][15] - The Japanese government is increasing bond issuance while the Bank of Japan has not indicated any tightening measures, leading to concerns about rising long-term interest rates [15][20] - Upcoming bond auctions will be critical to monitor as they may reflect ongoing demand issues in the long-term bond market [16][20]

隐形炸弹？美国的银行与私募信贷机构的深度联系可能引爆下一轮系统性风险。 5月21日，波士顿联储最新发布的研究报告显示，由Blackstone、Apollo和Ares等机构主导的私募信贷行业与传统银行业建立了越来越紧密的联 系，这可能在经济衰退期间对美国金融体系构成系统性风险。 波士顿联储经济学家José Fillat、Mattia Landoni、John Levin和Christina Wang在报告中警告："银行与私募信贷市场的广泛联系可能令人担忧，因为 这些联系间接使银行面临与私人信贷贷款相关的高风险。" 据介绍，美国私募信贷市场近年来呈现爆炸式增长，市场规模从2000年的460亿美元扩张至2023年约1万亿美元，尤其在2019年后增长更为迅猛。 "为了应对不利的宏观经济冲击，如果足够多的私募信贷贷款人提取银行信贷额度，私募信贷贷款人对银行流动性的依赖可能对银行业 构成系统性流动性风险。" 值得注意的是，波士顿联储承认，银行提供给私募信贷基金的融资仍被视为比2008年金融危机前提供的杠杆收购贷款更安全。当前，银行对基金 的贷款由数十或数百笔较小的贷款支持，最大限度地降低了他们对任何单一业务的风险。 这一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent marginal improvement in overseas disturbances has led to a rebound in global stock markets, positively impacting the A-share market, with private equity firms increasingly optimistic about future market performance [1][2]. Investment Sentiment - Private equity firms have shifted to a more optimistic outlook due to the alleviation of external uncertainties, which is expected to boost China's economic growth momentum in Q2 [2][3]. - The overall export data has shown resilience, highlighting the strength of China's manufacturing sector [2]. - Investors and companies are now better positioned to rationally analyze the impacts of uncertainties and adjust their investment strategies accordingly [2]. Market Dynamics - The marginal improvement in external risks is likely to enhance performance expectations for Chinese export companies, positively affecting market valuations [2]. - The recovery of risk appetite is identified as a core logic for the mid-term market outlook, with funds expected to flow back into the stock market, increasing market activity [2][3]. Portfolio Adjustments - Private equity firms have begun adjusting their portfolios in response to improved market sentiment, with a focus on high-quality, globally competitive stocks [4]. - Heavy investments are being made in sectors with strong performance expectations, particularly in communications and electronics, as well as consumer and financial sectors to balance risk [4][5]. - Some firms are concentrating on technology and pharmaceutical sectors, emphasizing high-quality growth and reasonable valuations [4]. Mid-term Market Outlook - Private equity firms generally hold a "neutral to optimistic" view for the A-share market in Q2 and Q3, anticipating structural opportunities to emerge [6][7]. - The global liquidity environment may increase risks associated with cash assets, highlighting the value of quality equity assets [7]. - The market is expected to experience a "shaky upward" trend, with a focus on cyclical sectors and technology industries [7]. - The emphasis will be on identifying structural opportunities and monitoring corporate earnings recovery as a key investment focus [7].

在投资的广袤领域中，风险如影随形。其中，非系统性风险作为一种特殊类型，深刻影响着投资者的收 益与决策。了解非系统性风险的内涵、特点、类型及应对策略，是投资者在复杂多变的市场中稳健前行 的关键。接下来，利多星将为大家详细解读非系统性风险。 | 维度 | 非系统性风险 | 系统性风险 | | --- | --- | --- | | 影响范围 | 个别公司、行业或资产 | 整个市场或经济体系 | | 风险来源 | 企业/行业特有因素,如 管理、财务、技术 | 宏观经济、政策、利率、 通胀等全局因素 | | 可分散性 | 可通过多元化投资分散 | 不可分散,需承担市场整 | | | | 体风险 | | 典型例子 | 某公司财报亏损、行业产 | 经济衰退、央行加息、国 | | | 能过剩 | 际局势动荡 | 非系统性风险是投资中可通过主动管理规避的 "个体风险"，其核心逻辑是 "不要把鸡蛋放在同一个篮子 里"。通过合理的资产配置和风险控制，投资者可以有效降低这类风险对整体组合的影响，而将主要精 力集中于应对不可分散的系统性风险。在投资之旅中，认识并应对非系统性风险，是投资者实现资产保 值增值的重要一步。希望通过本文的介 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market is becoming a dual engine of technological iteration and consumer upgrade amid the wave of electrification and intelligence in the global automotive industry [1] - Joint venture brands face a dilemma of needing to adopt global technology systems while rapidly responding to local demands [1] - The transformation of automotive companies is not just about betting on trends but about making each vehicle a precise solution to user needs [1] Group 1: Technological Innovation - FAW Toyota's bZ5 redefines the value of smart electric vehicles through "systematic safety" and "perceptible experience," integrating global safety standards with local innovations [2] - The e-TNGA platform enhances the bZ5's structural rigidity and lowers its center of gravity, while advanced manufacturing techniques ensure high precision [2] - The bZ5 features a comprehensive battery protection system that minimizes thermal runaway risks through physical and chemical barriers [2] Group 2: Safety Features - The bZ5 is equipped with the Toyota Pilot system powered by Momenta's large model, significantly improving lane change and ramp success rates without high-precision maps [4] - The vehicle includes a biological monitoring system that alerts drivers if children or pets are left inside, extending safety measures beyond driving scenarios [4] - Redundant hardware systems ensure that the vehicle maintains basic functionality even if a single system fails, enhancing driving fault tolerance [4] Group 3: Market Trends and Consumer Insights - A report indicates that while younger consumers prioritize "fun" features, older demographics are increasingly valuing "usability," with late adopters and laggards making up 50% of the market by 2024 [5] - The return to rational consumer demands emphasizes the importance of quality, durability, and reliability in automotive products [5] Group 4: Sales Performance and Strategy - FAW Toyota's sales grew by 9.6% in Q1 2025, reaching 172,000 units, with electric models accounting for 51% of sales and high-end models 59% [8] - The company has maintained high customer satisfaction and reliability ratings, allowing it to adapt confidently to changing consumer characteristics [8] - The "Time Renewal Plan" aims to activate the replacement potential of 12 million old users, reinforcing the brand's commitment to quality and durability [8] Group 5: Long-term Vision and Resilience - FAW Toyota's approach emphasizes long-term trust built on technological strength, moving from price competition to value competition [10] - The company demonstrates strategic resilience by focusing on localized R&D and maintaining a commitment to systematic safety and lifecycle value [11] - The brand's philosophy recognizes that automotive manufacturing is a marathon requiring continuous investment in technology and understanding user needs [11]

Core Viewpoint - The conference emphasized the importance of financial security as a critical component of national security and economic stability, highlighting the need for a long-term, systematic approach to strengthen financial safety measures in the face of evolving risks [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Security Importance - Financial is described as the lifeblood of the national economy and a key part of the country's core competitiveness [4]. - The stability and efficient operation of the financial system are crucial for resource allocation, economic innovation, and serving the real economy [4]. - Any instability in the financial system can rapidly affect the real economy, disrupting national economic order and social stability [4]. Group 2: Current Challenges - Experts noted that China's financial security faces unprecedented complexities, including the accumulation of traditional financial risks and the emergence of new risks, particularly due to the dual-edged effects of rapid financial technology development [5]. - There is a call for a "bottom-line thinking" approach, reinforcing a "systemic perspective," and building a "multi-party collaborative" financial security defense [5]. Group 3: Conference Outcomes - The successful hosting of the conference provided a high-level platform for in-depth communication and consensus-building, positively impacting the enhancement of China's financial security and the prevention of systemic financial risks [8].

作者 |jim-sloan 5月15日公布的13F文件披露了巴菲特对银行股（特别是美国银行）的真实态度，以及他对苹果 公司的最新研判。 关于苹果的结论较为明确，我们先从此入手。 文件显示其300,000,000股的苹果持仓与2024年12月31日持平，这意味着他此前减持并非仅为 兑现"保持苹果第一重仓股地位至年底"的承诺，而是因为苹果持仓已严重超出投资组合的合理配 置比例——这纯粹是仓位调整策略。 当然，仓位调整需综合多重因素。若未来前景明朗且估值足够吸引，巴菲特或许仍会维持苹果作 为伯克希尔（NYSE:BRK.A）（NYSE:BRK.B）第四大核心业务的战略定位，保持目前的持仓规 模。但现实是：当前苹果估值较其建仓时已膨胀150%，这意味着初始投资60%的收益来自估值 提升。这种高估值敏感性使得苹果在市场系统性下跌时将严重拖累伯克希尔整体价值。另一个关 键考量是：趁企业税率仍处21%历史低位时兑现收益（未来税率很可能上调），将浮盈转化为国 债储备以抵御市场风险——这显然比保留巨额税负更明智。 这并非否定苹果的优质基本面。截至3月31日一季度末，苹果仍占伯克希尔公开股票组合的 26%。但考虑到其万亿市值和缺乏 ...

2 0 2 5清华五道口全球金融论坛 论坛议程 I TTJ =V · 09:30-10:30 主演讲 · 10:45-12:00 主题讨论一:面向未来的全球货币体系 0 05月17日(周六)下午 平行论坛 · 14:00-15:15 主题讨论二:新形势下的国际贸易与投资 · 15:30-16:45 主题讨论三:全球经济碎片化的挑战 · 16:45-18:00 主题讨论四:粤港澳大湾区建设与发展 · 14:00-15:15 主题讨论五:绿色发展的机遇与挑战 · 15:30-16:45 主题讨论方:新兴市场债务危机与金融治理 · 16:45-17:45 IMF专题报告:全球金融稳定 005月18日（周日）上午 平行论坛 · 09:00-10:15 主题讨论七:2025中国经济展望暨 《中国金融政策报告2025》发布 10:30-11:45 . 主题讨论八: 金融赋能科技创新与发展 · 09:00-10:15 主题讨论九:人工智能时代下的数字金融 · 10:30-11:45 主题讨论十:全球资本市场展望与发展 · UY:UU-11:UU 闭门会一:加强金融安全 防范系统性金融风险 005月18日(周日)下午 平行论 ...

此外，美元与美债收益率多年来走势相关性非常强，但近期也出现了割裂。 分析认为，这些迹象表明，美股反弹可能只是一场表面的狂欢，美债收益率异常上涨以及与美元走势的背离，指向美国结构性财政问题，或暗示 美元更深层次崩溃风险。随着美国政府预计发行超2万亿美元国债，缺乏买家的局面可能迫使美联储重启资产负债表扩张。 股市狂欢，但债市却在讲述一个不同的故事 美国通胀降温却未能安抚债市，美债收益率顽固上升。 周二，美国市场上演了令人困惑的一幕：美股反弹，科技股继续飙升，而美债收益率却在通胀数放缓的情况下反常走高，美元进一步走软。 中美关税暂缓叠加美国通胀降温，引发美股大涨，然而债市与美元的表现却透露出市场深层的忧虑。 数据显示，美国4月消费者价格指数同比增长2.3%，低于经济学家预期的2.4%，为自2021年2月以来最低水平。这本应是债券市场的利好消息，但 10年期美债收益率反而上升2.4个基点至4.481%。 Pomboy警告，美联储最终可能别无选择，只能重新扩大资产负债表。"美联储是唯一明显的候选人来吸收所有这些国债发行，"她说道，并补充说 尽管信贷价差没有反应，但信贷压力正在增加。 "这是一个结构性财政问题，"她总结道 ...