有色金属日报 2025-7-11 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 国内商品氛围较为高涨，铜价在美国征收高关税预期下震荡运行，昨日伦铜收涨 0.23%至 9682 美元 /吨，沪铜主力合约收至 78590 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存增加 975 至 108100 吨，注销仓单比 例提高至 37.9%，Cash/3M 升水收缩至零附近。国内方面，精炼铜社会库存量环比周一 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 7 月 11 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 品种：棕榈油(P) 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：市场聚焦今晚美国农业部报告，报告前交易商调整仓位，美豆期价迎来反弹。国内大豆市场供 应充裕格局不改，贸易忧虑升温再度提振市场情绪。短期关注美农报告的联动影响，弱现实和贸易忧虑影 响下，豆粕期价震荡偏强运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2509 震荡 震荡 ...

Group 1 - The core concern is the potential normalization of Japan's bond yields, which could pose a significant threat to U.S. tech stock valuations, especially if real yields rise substantially by 2025 [1][3] - BCA Research highlights that from 2019 to 2022, U.S. tech stock valuations were perfectly synchronized with U.S. real bond yields, but by the end of 2022, they began to correlate with Japanese government bonds, which are the last to have negative real yields [4][6] - The high valuations of U.S. tech stocks are not solely based on domestic liquidity but also rely on the low-cost funding environment provided by Japan [6][7] Group 2 - Current changes in Japan's domestic economy, with long-term inflation expectations nearing the 2% target, indicate that the pressure for normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy will gradually increase [6] - BCA warns that if Japan's real bond yields normalize, the global liquidity environment will tighten, directly impacting tech stocks that depend on low-cost funding [7]

Core Points - The initial agreement between Vietnam and the U.S. to significantly reduce tariffs was abruptly undermined by President Trump's announcement of a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods, nearly double the expected rate of 11% [1][2] - The lack of formal documentation regarding the agreement raises doubts about its existence and validity, with both parties failing to release any official agreement [2] - The last-minute change in tariff rates has eroded trust in U.S. trade negotiations, leading other countries to question the reliability of agreements made with the U.S. [3] Summary by Sections Agreement Details - Vietnam believed it had reached a preliminary consensus on an 11% tariff rate, but Trump announced a 20% tariff during a call with Vietnamese General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong [1] - No formal agreement has been published by either side, leading to skepticism about the claimed agreement [2] - A draft of the original agreement suggested more favorable trade conditions for Vietnam, including significant tax reductions on imports [2] Impact on U.S. Trade Credibility - The sudden tariff increase has diminished other countries' confidence in U.S. trade negotiations, as they observe the unpredictability of agreements [3] - Former U.S. trade officials express concern that this incident could damage long-term trust in U.S.-Vietnam relations, which have developed over the past 30 years [3] - The bilateral trade volume between the U.S. and Vietnam has surged from $2.9 billion in 2002 to over $139 billion in 2022, highlighting the importance of this relationship [3]

巴西总统卢拉：巴西计划向世贸组织就美国关税提出上诉，我们计划从8月1日开始作出回应。 ...

当地时间7月10日，美股三大指数集体上涨，纳斯达克综合指数和标普500指数再创历史新高。 消息面上，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"发文，再度敦促美联储主席鲍威尔迅速采取行动降息。而美联储内部对降息的日期也产生了一定分歧。 纳指、标普续创新高 截至当地时间周四收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.43%，报44650.64点；标普500指数涨0.27%，报6280.46点，创下新高；纳指涨0.09%，报20630.66点，连续两天刷新最 高纪录。 英伟达股价上涨0.75%，收盘市值首次突破4万亿美元，成为全球首家市值达到这一里程碑的上市公司，仅这一家公司的市值就超过了英国股票总市值。和今年4月 低点相比，英伟达股价已经上涨约90%。美国投行韦德布什分析师DanIves表示，预计英伟达的市值可能会在未来18个月内达到5万亿美元。 特斯拉股价上涨4.73%，消息面上，特斯拉CEO马斯克在其社交平台上宣布，公司计划将无人驾驶出租车（Robotaxi）服务扩展至美国加州旧金山湾区，并预期最 快可在"一两个月内"正式推出，具体时间取决于监管部门的批准进度。马斯克还表示，公司计划本周末扩大无人驾驶出租车在奥斯汀的服务范围。 其他 ...

巴西前总统博索纳罗：我明确表达对美国政府的尊重和钦佩。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk has announced the establishment of a new political party called the "American Party," aiming to participate in the upcoming midterm elections in the U.S. and secure minority seats in both the House and Senate [1] Historical Context of Third Parties in the U.S. - The U.S. has a long history of third parties, starting with the Anti-Masonic Party in 1831, which was the first third party in American politics [1][3] - The Anti-Masonic Party held its first national presidential candidate nomination convention in 1831, where William Wirt was nominated for the 1832 presidential election, receiving 8% of the popular vote in Vermont [3][4] - The Anti-Masonic Party lasted about ten years and influenced American politics by promoting anti-Masonic sentiments and establishing the practice of national conventions for presidential nominations [4] Emergence and Decline of Other Third Parties - Following the Anti-Masonic Party, other third parties emerged, such as the Know Nothing Party and the People's Party, with the Know Nothing Party gaining significant traction in the 1854 elections [5][6] - The People's Party, founded in 1891, opposed monopolies in banking and railroads and garnered over 1 million votes in the 1892 elections, but eventually declined after aligning with the Democratic Party in 1896 [6][7] Modern Third Parties - Contemporary third parties include the Independent Party, Reform Party, and Green Party, with the Reform Party being established by billionaire Ross Perot in 1995 after his independent presidential run in 1992 [8][9] - The Reform Party's influence has diminished in the 21st century, similar to other third parties that have historically struggled to maintain a lasting presence in U.S. politics [9]

【环球时报驻美国特约记者 李致 环球时报特约记者 徐铉】美国总统特朗普9日在白宫与加蓬、几内亚比绍、利比里亚、毛里塔尼亚和塞内加尔五 个非洲国家的领导人举行会晤。会上，特朗普与非洲来宾讨论了美国对非政策、美非经贸合作等议题。 《纽约时报》称，特朗普在会上声称此举是为了"对抗中国在非洲日益增长的影响力"。报道提到，美国在非洲大陆展现的影响力落后于中国，报 道援引布鲁金斯学会高级研究员兰德里·西涅的话称："中国在许多非洲国家的经济和政治影响力已经超过美国——包括那些受邀参加此次会晤的 国家。" 多国媒体还注意到，特朗普在本次会晤中对与会的非洲领导人有不少"失礼"之处。报道称，在毛里塔尼亚总统发言时，特朗普流露出不耐烦的神 色，并强行打断其发言。在几内亚比绍总统发言仅1分钟时，特朗普要求他"简单自我介绍，报出国名"并尽快结束讲话。特朗普还夸赞利比里亚总 统的英语很好，然而英语为利比里亚官方语言。 据英国广播公司等媒体10日报道，这次美非领导人会晤为期3天，特朗普在开场致辞时称，美国对非政策路径正在"从援助转为贸易"，非洲国家的 矿产和石油储量丰富，拥有巨大财富和经济潜力，他希望能为美国拓宽在非洲获得关键矿产的渠道， ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials have differing views on the impact of tariffs on inflation, with San Francisco Fed President Daly suggesting that tariffs may not have a lasting effect on inflation [1][2] - Daly believes that some companies are negotiating to share tariff costs, which may prevent significant price increases for consumers [2] - The U.S. economy is in good shape, with growth and consumer spending slowing but not weakening, and inflation is moving towards the Fed's 2% target [2] Group 2 - St. Louis Fed President Musalem emphasized the need for caution regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, stating that the impact of tariffs on inflation may take time to manifest [2][3] - Musalem noted that while the impact of tariffs on inflation has not been significant so far, it is expected to become more apparent in the coming months [2] - There is a growing internal division within the Fed regarding the timing of rate cuts, with some officials advocating for a potential cut in July while others remain cautious [3]