周四，美元兑欧元和瑞士法郎汇率跌至多年来的最低点，因为人们对美联储未来独立性的担忧削弱了人们对美国货币政策稳健性的信心。据报道，美 国总统特朗普正考虑在9月或10月之前选定并宣布美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者，旨在削弱他的影响。目前鲍威尔作为美联储主席的任期还有11个月。 Monex欧洲公司宏观研究主管Nick Rees说道："从市场角度来看，当然，这不仅会损害美联储的信誉和独立性，(而且)还会对美国利率的前景构成风 险。这些担忧影响了今天的美元走势。"Rees补充道，在7月9日与包括欧盟在内的贸易伙伴终止"对等关税"暂停措施之前，特朗普团队的言论给该货币 带来的压力可能会加剧。 特朗普周三称鲍威尔"很糟糕"，因为他没有大幅降低利率，而鲍威尔则在参议院表示，政策必须谨慎，因为总统的关税计划对通胀构成风险。市场将 美联储7月下次会议降息的可能性推高至25%，一周前仅为12%，并预计到年底降息幅度为64个基点，上周五约为46个基点。 美元受到广泛压力，欧元上涨0.6%至1.1729美元，为2021年9月以来的最高水平。英镑上涨0.65%，至1.3753美元，为2021年10月以来的最高水平;而美 元兑瑞士法郎汇率跌至近 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's criticism of current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his intention to announce a successor as early as September, which would break historical transition norms [1][4]. - Potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman include Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, Scott Bessent, and David Malpass, each with varying degrees of alignment with Trump's economic policies [2]. - Trump's plan to announce a successor earlier than usual aims to create a "shadow Fed Chairman" to influence market expectations regarding future interest rates and apply pressure on Powell [4][5]. Group 2 - The proposed early announcement of a successor would establish a new model for Federal Reserve leadership transitions, allowing the nominee to influence market expectations while in a "Chairman-in-waiting" role [4]. - Trump's ongoing public pressure on Powell, including threats of dismissal, has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, challenging the traditional understanding that a Chairman would not be removed without misconduct [5][7]. - Powell's recent testimony highlighted concerns about rising inflation due to tariffs, indirectly responding to Trump's trade policies and interest rate demands, indicating a potential conflict between political pressures and economic data [8]. Group 3 - Analysts warn that Trump's actions may set a precedent for presidential influence over the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining its independence and credibility if future leaders prioritize political preferences over economic indicators [9]. - The Trump administration's legal challenges to the independence of federal agencies further complicate the situation, as it seeks to empower the president to dismiss officials from independent institutions [9].

金十数据6月26日讯，周四，美元兑欧元和瑞士法郎跌至多年低点，因对美联储未来独立性的担忧动摇 了对美国货币政策稳健性的信心。Monex Europe宏观经济研究主管Nick Rees表示，从市场角度来看， 这不仅显然会削弱美联储的信誉和独立性，而且也会对美国利率前景构成风险。这些担忧今天对美元造 成了压力。在7月9日"对等关税"暂停期到期前，特朗普团队言论对美元的压力可能会加剧。 机构：对等关税暂停期结束前，美元或继续承压 ...

美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔昨晚重申了"不急于降息"的言论，但同日美国总统特朗普的一则消息引 起了广泛关注。特朗普表示，他认识的人大概只有三四个，幸运的是，鲍威尔很快就会下台，并对鲍威 尔的智力和工作表现进行了批评。这一系列言论似乎暗示着特朗普即将宣布美联储主席的继任者名单。 值得一提的是，全球关注的黄金市场近期陷入沉寂，正在酝酿下一轮的大涨或大跌。鉴于特朗普的性格 特点，当他频繁提起某件事时，可能会突然做出决定。因此，即使下一秒宣布新的美联储主席人选，也 不要感到意外，市场随时可能发生剧烈变化。 来源：热点快报 根据目前的消息，特朗普的美联储主席继任者名单上可能有四个人选。首先是前美联储理事凯文·沃 什，他是最鹰派也是最激进的候选人，据称是特朗普本人最看好的人选。其次是现任美联储理事沃勒， 他是一个技术派人物，延续性较强，并且是第一个宣布支持7月降息的联储官员。第三位是白宫国家经 济委员会主任哈塞特，他具有强烈的政治色彩，并在昨晚突然表示美联储目前有足够的降息空间。最后 是财政部长贝森特，他是一个市场友好型的人物，得到了特朗普盟友的力推。 特朗普势必会选择一位"喜欢降息的人"作为下一任美联储主席，这引发了对 ...

Group 1: Economic Conflict and Policy Divergence - The conflict between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell has become a global focus, highlighting structural economic contradictions in the U.S. [1] - Trump's threats to fire Powell stem from disagreements over monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rate cuts amid inflation concerns [1][8] - The outcome of this conflict could significantly impact the future of the U.S. dollar's dominance [1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Biden administration's fiscal stimulus exceeding $7 trillion and the Fed's zero interest rates have led to a surge in the money supply (M2) from $15 trillion to $23 trillion, resulting in a 9.1% inflation rate in 2023, the highest in 40 years [3] - Despite aggressive rate hikes to 5.25%-5.5%, inflation expectations remain entrenched, with one-year inflation expectations at 6.7% as of April 2025 [5][3] Group 3: Historical Context and Fed Independence - Powell's reluctance to cut rates is influenced by historical lessons from the 1970s, where political pressures led to unchecked inflation, resulting in a 13.3% inflation rate and over 10% unemployment [5][7] - The independence of the Fed is crucial for controlling inflation, and Powell has indicated he would legally defend this principle against political threats [8][7] Group 4: Tariff Policies and Economic Impact - Trump's tariff policies have raised average import tax rates from 2.6% to 19.3%, significantly increasing consumer prices, with average household expenses rising by $2,300 annually [10][12] - The tariffs have led to a decline in U.S. manufacturing, with companies like GM and Tesla facing layoffs and project halts due to increased costs [12][10] Group 5: Debt and Economic Structure - U.S. government debt is projected to exceed $40 trillion by 2025, with annual interest payments reaching $1.6 trillion, creating a "Ponzi scheme" scenario [17] - The manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP has decreased to 10.8%, while low-end service jobs dominate, indicating a disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street [19][17] Group 6: Global Implications and Dollar Dominance - Trump's policies have accelerated the decline of dollar hegemony, with global central banks selling $215 billion in U.S. debt in Q1 2025 and increasing the share of the yuan in international reserves to 6.8% [19] - The potential collapse of dollar credibility could lead to a spike in government bond yields, triggering a global financial crisis [19][21] Group 7: Conclusion on Economic Future - The ongoing struggle between Trump and Powell reflects the impending collapse of the U.S. economic model, with both monetary policy and fiscal strategies failing to address underlying issues [21] - Regardless of the outcome, the fractures in the dollar system are evident, with potential severe consequences for the U.S. economy [21]

面对美联储迟迟不降息的局面，特朗普坐不住了。他又一次考虑打破常规，准备提前宣布下任美联储主 席人选，试图用"影子主席"策略倒逼现任主席鲍威尔加快降息进程。 据华尔街日报报道，特朗普正考虑最早今夏或秋天就宣布接替鲍威尔的美联储主席人选，远早于传统的 3-4个月过渡期。知情人士透露，特朗普对美联储谨慎降息的立场日益不满，希望通过提前宣布继任 者，让"影子主席"在鲍威尔任期结束前就开始影响市场预期和货币政策走向。 知情人士透露，最近几周，特朗普一直在考虑在9月或10月之前选定并宣布鲍威尔的继任者，他对鲍威 尔的愤怒可能会导致他在今年夏天的某个时候更早地宣布继任者人选。而新任美联储主席要到明年5月 才上任。 特朗普在北约峰会新闻发布会上暗示进程可能加速： 我知道在3-4个人中我将选择谁。幸运的是，他很快就要离任了，因为我认为他很糟糕。 不过，美联储政策由12名决策者组成的委员会制定，特朗普无法任命多数成员，除非现任理事提前离 职。这使得新主席必须具备说服更广泛委员会的能力。提前宣布也存在风险。候选人可能陷入公开批评 未来同事的尴尬境地，或因为市场视其为"马屁精"而失去公信力。 候选人浮出水面 华尔街见闻此前文章提及， ...

Group 1 - The recent decline of the US dollar index (DXY) to 97.48 represents a significant drop of over 10% this year, erasing all gains from the previous year [1][3] - Trump's intention to nominate a new Federal Reserve chair before Powell's term ends is aimed at influencing market expectations and potentially altering interest rate policies [3][4] - The leading candidate for the new chair is Kevin Walsh, who has previously supported rate cuts, indicating a possible shift towards a more dovish monetary policy [3][4] Group 2 - Historical trends show that the dollar's performance is closely tied to the Federal Reserve chair's policy stance, with a dovish shift likely to weaken the dollar further [4][5] - A weaker dollar is expected to benefit gold and commodities, as it makes these assets cheaper for holders of other currencies [5] - Investors should monitor key dates: the announcement of the new chair this summer or fall, and the official transition in May next year, as these could lead to significant market volatility and investment opportunities [5]

Group 1 - Trump is considering announcing the next Federal Reserve Chair earlier than the traditional transition period to pressure current Chair Powell to accelerate interest rate cuts [1][2] - Potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair include former Fed Governor Warsh, NEC Director Hassett, current Fed Governor Waller, and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [2][4] - Powell emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve during a Senate hearing, stating that while rate cuts are possible, a cautious approach will be taken [2] Group 2 - Waller, a Fed Governor nominated by Trump, indicated support for a potential rate cut next month due to concerns over a weakening labor market [4] - Warsh has publicly criticized the Fed's handling of political pressures, urging the institution to maintain maturity and resilience [4]

鲍威尔本周将在国会出席听证会，为美联储连续第四次维持利率不变的决定进行辩护，并回应特朗普要 求降息的持续压力。 然而，美联储内部并非铁板一块。据华尔街见闻报道，两位理事沃勒和鲍曼均表示，关税对物价的影响 可能是短暂的，他们可能支持在7月降息。 本周二和周三，美联储主席鲍威尔将先后出席众议院金融服务委员会和参议院银行委员会的听证会。在 美联储连续按兵不动之后，鲍威尔的证词将成为投资者判断美联储政策前景的关键窗口。他不仅需要 为"等待和观望"的立场提供坚实理据，还必须应对来自两党议员关于利率、中东冲突、金融监管以及美 联储独立性等一系列尖锐问题。 此前不到一周，美联储官员刚刚决定连续第四次会议维持利率不变。报道指出，鲍威尔预计将重申其谨 慎的政策基调，即在采取任何行动前需要观察更多经济数据。 此外，市场预计共和党议员将就美联储的观望立场向鲍威尔施压，要求其提供明确理据。同时，美联储 内部对于关税影响和利率政策的分歧也将成为焦点，两位美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼此前表示可能支持7月 降息。 利率政策立场面临挑战 报道预计鲍威尔将坚持其上周传递的核心信息，即美联储目前"处于有利位置，可以在考虑任何利率变 动之前，等待并了解更 ...

美元霸权的"切尔诺贝利时刻"？——黄金大撤离与美联储的政治困境 历史学家或许会将2025年铭记为美元霸权崩塌的元年，以及黄金重回"货币之王"宝座的起点。这一年，政治对信任的摧毁，将人类重新推向对最原始硬通货 ——黄金的依赖。 这一切，都源于美国总统特朗普对美联储的持续施压，以及由此引发的全球黄金储备的"大撤离"。 2026年，现任美联储主席鲍威尔任期届满。此前，他或许从未料到自己会成为华盛顿政治角斗场中的一枚"人肉盾牌"。 特朗普在社交媒体上多次公开斥责 鲍威尔"动作迟缓"，并扬言在其任期结束后，将任命一位更为"听话"的美联储主席。此举赤裸裸地削弱了美联储的市场独立性，也对美元的信用造成了巨大 冲击。 德国和意大利，率先发出了将存放在美国的黄金运回本国的强烈呼声，这并非偶然。 这场围绕黄金的博弈，更像是一场精心编排的黑色喜剧。 美联储主席鲍威尔在芝加哥经济俱乐部坚称不会因总统压力而改变政策，然而，高盛的报告却一 针见血地指出：每当特朗普发出一条批评美联储的推文，市场对通胀的预期就会跳涨1个百分点。 德国和意大利，分别持有全球第二和第三大黄金储备，储量分别为3352吨和2452吨，这些黄金都存放于纽约联邦储备银 ...