金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/07/02 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 黄金价格由跌转涨，可以继续做多了吗？ 2025 年 7 月 1 日黄金价格的上涨，是多种因素共同作用的结果。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 从市场环境来看，美元指数受美联储降息预期及贸易政策不确定性影响，大幅下跌，跌至 2022 年 2 月以来的低点，这使得以美元计价的黄金价格得到有力支撑。同时，10 年期美债收益率下滑，持有 黄金的机会成本降低，也促使投资者纷纷涌入黄金市场。 地缘政治方面，中东局势紧张，美以与伊朗的冲突不断，俄乌战场也持续升级，这些不确定性加剧了 市场的避险情绪，黄金作为传统避险资产，自然受到资金的追捧。 不过，虽然黄金价格出现了上涨，但也面临一些挑战。本周四将公布美国 6 月非农数据，若数据表现 强劲，可能会强化市场对美联储货币政策的鹰派预期，进而压制金价。所以，在当前情况下，轻仓尝 试多。 GOL ...

鲍威尔还表示，当前美国经济基本面稳健，为美联储采取观望策略提供了空间。这表明美联储并不急于 采取激进的宽松或紧缩措施。鲍威尔称，美联储预计在夏季期间通胀水平可能会有所上升，但整体上仍 处于可预见范围内。他重申，通胀正朝着美联储目标方向前进，但尚未完全达成。（新华财经） 美联储主席鲍威尔7月1日表示，鉴于当前关税带来的不确定性及其对价格的潜在影响，美联储决定暂停 加息行动，以便更准确评估其对通胀和整体经济的影响。鲍威尔说，在美国经济保持强劲的背景下，美 联储倾向于采取谨慎态度，选择观望并等待更多信息以评估通胀和经济走势。 ...

Group 1 - The dollar index has experienced its worst half-year performance since 1973, with a cumulative decline of approximately 10.8% in 2025, second only to a 14.8% drop in the first half of 1973 [1] - Key factors contributing to the dollar's decline include Donald Trump's trade and tariff policies, which have created significant uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook, negatively impacting the dollar's attractiveness [2] - Trump's public criticism of the Federal Reserve and calls for interest rate cuts have undermined market confidence in the dollar, as the independence of the central bank is crucial for currency stability [3] Group 2 - Market optimism regarding U.S. trade agreements has fueled strong expectations for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, putting additional downward pressure on the dollar [4] - Following the dollar index's drop to multi-year lows, further downward pressure is anticipated due to dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve and weak domestic economic data [5] - The significant depreciation of the dollar is likely to impact U.S. trade dynamics, making exports more competitive while increasing import prices, potentially leading to inflationary pressures [6] Group 3 - The decline of the dollar is prompting central banks worldwide to reassess their foreign exchange reserve structures, with many increasing allocations to gold, euros, and renminbi to reduce reliance on the dollar [7] - A survey indicated that 70% of central banks believe the U.S. political environment hinders their investment in dollars, leading to a diversification trend that could reshape the global monetary system [7] - The future trajectory of the dollar index remains uncertain, influenced by trade policies, Federal Reserve adjustments, and global economic growth [7]

欢迎关注微信公众号 | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | IF2509 | | 宏观形势好转带动风险偏好上行,指数已经突破短 | | | 股指 | 60955HII | 科技热度持续,中小盘指数再冲高 | 期震荡区间上沿,中枢上移过程中,谨慎追高风 | | | | IC2507 | | 险,但可轻仓卖出8-9月5900执行价MO期权收取 | | | | IM2509 | | 权利金。 | | | | 12509 TF2509 | 6月PMI环比略升,但内需仍需加力。跨月后资金利率或季节性 | 单边策略上,期债可适当逢调整配置多单。期现策 | | | 国质 | 6095ZS1 | 下行,7月上旬资金如果明显转松可能利好债市 | 略上,可以适当关注TS2509合约正套策略。适当 | | 金融 | | 6095711 | | 关注做陡曲线。 | | | | AU2508 | | 关注美国经济数据对美联储货币政策预期影响,金 | | | 贵金属 | AG2508 | 美元指数持续下行 贵金属止跌回升 | 价站稳60日均 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | | 隔夜 LME 铜先抑后扬，上涨 0.01%至 9878 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.01%至 79780 | | | | 元/吨；现货进口维系亏损态势，且亏损幅度较大。宏观方面，昨日特朗普在接受媒 | | | | 体采访时表示，无需延长即将到期的关税期限，将在未来几天内向包括日本在内的数 | | | | 百个国家发送信函，单方面告知各国对美出口商品的关税税率，而非继续进行贸易谈 | | | | 判。这或意味着 7 月关税期限到期前后风险事件可能再现。另外，昨日特朗普发文再 | | | | 次批评美联储主席鲍威尔和整个美联储理事会不降息的作为。国内方面，国家统计局 | | | 铜 | 公布数据显示，6 月份制造业 PMI 为 49.7%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点，制造业景气 | | | | 水平继续改善。库存方面，LME 库存下降 650 吨至 90625 吨；Comex 铜库存增加 | | | | 1749 吨至 191607 吨； ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The market risk sentiment has grown as the Israel-Iran conflict eases. The expectation of a looser Fed monetary policy mainly affects risk assets, causing the gold price to fluctuate downward. In the long term, the real interest rate is likely to decline. Gold remains an irreplaceable investment if the expansion of the US fiscal and debt scale persists. For gold, short - term trading can be done by selling high and buying low between 740 yuan/gram and 800 yuan/gram, and long - term positions can be lightly established based on the 740 yuan/gram level. For silver, it is advisable to buy on dips for hedging in the range of 8,640 yuan/kg to 8,660 yuan/kg with a stop - loss at 8,620 yuan/kg [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - US economic data is poor. The Chicago business activity index in June dropped slightly to 40.4 from 40.5 in May, lower than the expected 43.0, the lowest since January, indicating 19 consecutive months of economic activity contraction. The Dallas Fed business activity index contracted for the fifth consecutive month. Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects one rate cut this year and three next year. Goldman Sachs advanced its prediction of the Fed rate cut to September. Trump criticized the Fed, and there are speculations about Powell's successor [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On June 30, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 764.10 yuan/gram and closed at 767.58 yuan/gram, up 0.15% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 211,285 lots, and the open interest was 155,821 lots. In the night session, it opened at 766.18 yuan/gram and closed at 768.98 yuan/gram, up 0.54% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 8,716 yuan/kg and closed at 8,762 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 504,424 lots, and the open interest was 277,702 lots. In the night session, it opened at 8,737 yuan/kg and closed at 8,722 yuan/kg, up 0.10% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 30, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.29%, with a change of 0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.52%, down 4 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Precious Metals on the SHFE - On the Au2502 contract, the long positions changed by 129 lots and the short positions by 52 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 398,616 lots, up 4.72% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 10 lots and the short positions decreased by 1,436 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 949,707 lots, down 13.39% from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF position was 952.53 tons, down 2.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,826.61 tons, down 39.58 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On June 30, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 9.10 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 553.85 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 87.60, up 0.50% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 90.86, with a change of 0.30% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On June 30, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 57,766 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 487,620 kg, with a change of 2.21% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 13,166 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 6,240 kg [7].

Group 1 - Gold prices have recently risen, reaching a high of $3320.34 per ounce, supported by strong buying at lower levels and a weaker US dollar [2] - The US dollar index has dropped 0.5% to 96.76, marking its worst first half performance since the 1970s, with a monthly decline of 2.7% [2] - Concerns over the increasing US government deficit, projected to rise by $3.3 trillion due to tax cuts and spending, have weakened the dollar's appeal [2] Group 2 - Tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve are increasing, with President Trump pressuring Fed Chairman Powell for significant interest rate cuts [3] - Recent trade agreements between the US and China regarding rare earth minerals have provided some hope for trade dialogue, while the EU has expressed willingness to negotiate tariffs [3] - The upcoming employment data in the US is critical for determining future monetary policy and could influence gold prices significantly [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a rebound phase, with key support at $3295 and resistance at $3335 [4][6] - The market is advised to wait for a pullback to $3295 for potential buying opportunities, while maintaining a cautious approach to avoid chasing prices [4][6] - The overall strategy suggests a focus on short positions while monitoring key price levels for potential reversals [6][7] Group 4 - Specific trading strategies include shorting gold at $3320-$3323 with a target of $3305-$3300, and buying on dips at $3295-$3300 with a target of $3305-$3310 [7] - Emphasis is placed on risk management, including setting stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses [7][8] - The article highlights the importance of market analysis and adapting strategies based on market conditions to avoid significant losses [8]

贵金属日报 2025-07-01 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 贵金属 沪金涨 0.54 %，报 768.98 元/克，沪银涨 0.10 %，报 8722.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 0.40 %， 报 3321.00 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 0.45 %，报 36.34 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.24%，美元指数报 96.78 ； 市场展望： 昨日公布的美国经济数据表现弱势，美国 6 月芝加哥 PMI 为 40.4，低于预期的 43 以及前值的 40.5。美国 6 月达拉斯联储商业活动指数为-12.7，低于预期的-10。市场已加大对于联储后续 货币政策边际宽松的预期，当前市场预期联储下半年将分别在九月、十月以及十二月议息会议 中进行 25 个基点的降息操作，高于前期两次 25 个基点的降息预期。 当前美联储的货币政策已不完全具备"独立性"，就业和通胀数据并非其维持高息环境的主要 原因：美联储以通胀和就业为双重政策目标，而关税政策所带来的 ...

【白银期货行情表现】 6月30日，沪银主力暂报8735元/克，跌幅达0.85%，今日沪银主力开盘价8716元/克，截至目前最高8752 元/克，最低8662元/克。 在中东地区，地缘局势逐渐转向缓和。这一态势对黄金的短线走势产生了一定的不利影响，不过由于此 前该因素对黄金价格的推动作用相对有限，所以此次利空的影响也较为有限。后续仍需密切关注伊朗和 以色列之间的谈判进展。 从近两天的消息层面分析，市场普遍对美联储提前降息抱有期待，但这一预期能否实现，仍有待相关数 据的进一步观察。在此背景下，黄金价格走势预计将维持高位震荡的态势。 【宏观消息】 【机构观点】 美国5月核心PCE物价指数年率录得2.7%，高于预期的2.6%，创2025年2月以来新高。美国5月核心PCE 物价指数月率录得0.2%，市场预期持平于0.1%。美国核心PCE高，房租暴涨是主因，Fed低估了住房通 胀粘性。市场对美联储下半年降息的预期升温，叠加美联储"换帅"传闻扰动市场，美元指数日内在2022 年3月以来的最低点附近徘徊。沪金延续高位震荡，沪银表现偏强。 美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值下降0.5%，预期下降0.2%，前值为下降0.2%。美 ...

欧元/美元在6月最后一周达到1.1754，创下自2021年9月以来的最高点。周五收盘时，该货币对在1.1720附近整理，保持其积极的动能。 中东停火 美元（USD）在本周开局强劲，因中东冲突升级而对大多数主要对手货币大幅上涨。周末，美国对伊朗铀设施发动了大规模攻击，特朗普总统通过社交媒 体报告称他们已"摧毁"了核计划。德黑兰则以导弹袭击美国在卡塔尔的军事基地进行报复，市场参与者感到恐慌。 然而，周一晚些时候，特朗普总统宣布伊朗与以色列之间的停火，经过大约两周的导弹攻击交锋。尽管最初对潜在停火的怀疑，金融市场迅速转向乐观。 随着冲突实际降温，风险偏好占据主导地位。因此，原油价格暴跌，全球股市上涨，美元下跌。 美联储主席鲍威尔半年度证词 在美联储（Fed）主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在国会就货币政策作证后，美元承压。在他的半年度出席中，鲍威尔降低了对7月降息的预期，因对关税对通胀影响 的不确定性。同时，鲍威尔重申经济依然稳健，并表示美国没有衰退。最后，鲍威尔指出，特朗普总统对降息的要求对美联储的政策没有影响。 这引发了特朗普的愤怒。 在荷兰举行的北约首脑会议后，他声称："我们没有通胀。我们有一个巨大的经济。数千亿美元的关税 ...