Core Insights - A recent survey conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce in China indicates that despite the operational pressures from the Sino-U.S. trade tensions, the majority of American companies do not plan to exit the Chinese market [1] - No companies reported intentions to relocate production back to the United States [1] Group 1 - The survey highlights the resilience of American businesses in China amid ongoing trade disputes [1] - The findings suggest a commitment to the Chinese market despite external pressures [1]

Core Viewpoint - Procter & Gamble (P&G) is implementing a significant restructuring program that includes cutting 7,000 jobs, approximately 15% of its non-manufacturing workforce, in response to slowing growth and the impact of tariffs [1][2][5] Company Summary - P&G's job cuts were announced by CFO Andre Schulten during the Deutsche Bank Consumer Conference, with the company employing 108,000 people globally as of June 30 [2] - The company is facing challenges in its largest market, the U.S., where North American organic sales increased by only 1% in the fiscal third quarter [2] - P&G plans to raise prices in the upcoming fiscal year due to tariffs, expecting a 3 to 4 cent per share impact on fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and a projected $600 million headwind from tariffs before taxes in fiscal 2026 [3][4] - The restructuring will involve a reevaluation of P&G's portfolio, supply chain restructuring, and corporate organization slimming, with non-core costs estimated between $1 billion to $1.6 billion before taxes [4] - The restructuring is seen as a necessary step to ensure long-term growth, despite the immediate challenges faced by the company [5] Market Reaction - Following the announcement of job cuts, P&G's shares fell over 1% in morning trading, with the stock down 2% year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500, which has gained more than 1% [6]

贸易紧张局势可能会降低经济增速。 大多数长期通胀预期在2%左右。 通胀前景比以往更加不确定。 欧洲央行行长拉加德：通胀目标将稳定在2%。 劳动力成本正在逐渐放缓。 经济增长风险偏向下行。 ...

欧洲央行行长拉加德：贸易紧张局势可能会降低经济增长。 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has noted that concerns regarding increased uncertainty and market reactions to trade tensions in April have eased [1] - The tightening impact on the financing environment due to these concerns is expected to be less pronounced [1]

欧洲央行：相比之下，如果贸易紧张局势以温和的方式解决，经济增长以及在较小程度上的通胀将会高 于基线预测。 ...

Group 1 - The EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic stated that despite the new tariffs imposed by the US on steel and aluminum products, trade negotiations between the EU and the US are progressing in the "right direction" [1] - The US government raised tariffs on steel and aluminum products from 25% to 50%, citing national security as the reason, which has intensified trade barriers [1] - The EU has approved tariffs on €21 billion worth of US goods as a countermeasure to Trump's metal tariffs, targeting politically sensitive agricultural products and other items [2] Group 2 - The EU is preparing to impose additional tariffs on €95 billion worth of US goods in response to Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs and automotive tariffs, which will include products like Boeing aircraft and American-made cars [2] - The OECD warned that the trade tensions initiated by Trump have significantly worsened the global economic outlook, particularly affecting the US [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. has delayed the implementation of a 50% tariff on EU wine and alcoholic beverages until July 9, 2025, providing temporary relief for European exporters and U.S. importers [3] - The EU is heavily reliant on the U.S. market for wine exports, with over 60% of U.S. wine imports coming from Europe in 2024 [5] - The French economy is particularly vulnerable, with wine and beverages accounting for €4.1 billion (8.4% of total exports) and aerospace products at €9.1 billion (18.8% of total exports) to the U.S. in 2024 [6] Group 2 - The EU is seeking a negotiated solution to avoid new tariffs on agricultural products, while also preparing countermeasures worth €100 billion against U.S. products [5][8] - The ongoing trade tensions have led to uncertainty for French exporters, particularly in key sectors like wine, cosmetics, and aerospace [6][8] - The U.S. International Trade Court has ruled against Trump's tariff policies, indicating potential legal challenges to the administration's trade strategies [9][11]

美国总统特朗普4月2日公布了面向全球广泛的对等关税，引发全球贸易市场轩然大波。4月9日，特朗普 暂停了对大多数美国贸易伙伴的对等关税，暂停期限为90天，将高额关税的生效期推迟到7月9日。 据路透社报道，距离对等关税恢复期限仅剩五周，特朗普政府发出紧急信函要求各国在本周三前提交贸 易谈判的最佳方案。 据路透社获得的美国贸易代表办公室的一份信件草案显示，美国政府正在向谈判伙伴施压，要求各国在 关键领域提供最佳方案，包括购买美国工农业产品的关税和配额方案。 报道称，该草案表明，美国政府内部对完成交易存在紧迫感。尽管白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西 特反复承诺多项协议即将达成，但迄今为止，美国仅与英国这一主要贸易伙伴达成协议，且该协议更像 是持续谈判的框架而非最终交易。报道称，目前尚不清楚这封信会具体发送给哪些国家，但目标是那些 正在进行积极谈判的包括日本、越南、印度等国家以及欧盟。 美提高进口钢铝关税欧盟称将反制 美欧关系近期因美国滥施关税持续紧张。欧盟委员会2日表示，本周将向美国提出强有力的理由，要求 美国降低或取消关税。 欧盟委员会发言人奥洛夫·吉尔2日称，欧盟对美国宣布将钢铁进口关税从25%提高到50%表示强 ...

操作及建议： 1.3369附近空，止损3378.，止盈3343/3328 2.3328-30附近多，止损3318，止盈3356-66 黄金消息面：周一（6月2日）黄金价格延续涨势，最高触及3382.83美元/盎司，现交投于3389.60美元附 近。支撑因素包括：特朗普重提关税威胁及俄乌冲突在第二轮和谈前加剧（乌方大规模打击、俄方无人 机夜袭），显著提升了黄金作为地缘政治不确定性时期避险资产的需求。同时，市场风险偏好受抑（如 亚洲股市疲软）及持续的中美贸易紧张也利好金价。投资者正密切关注本周多位美联储官员讲话以寻求 未来货币政策线索，黄金通常在低利率环境下表现更佳。 黄金走势分析：日内符合我看跌回落，然后陷入震荡的走势，因为短期支撑上涨的消息面不够强劲，又 有地缘风险不断加持，金价能以持续上涨，所以看好短期回落，重回震荡，晚间的话，重点关注 3328/3335附近支撑，此区间可以考虑转空为多，短期上方关注3366-71附近压制，依托此位做空，止损 3378.6，止盈3343，跌破看3328-35区间，若有3328-30附近机会，可以低多，止损3318即可，止盈看 3356-66。 前言：下跌行情不言底，上涨行情 ...