合前 11 2 证券研究报告 【每周经济观察】 关税战下的美国抢进口:规模、区域和结构 海外周报第 96 期 主要观点 4月美国对全球普征基准的10%对等关税,与此同时,一系列重磅关税虽然豁 免但只是暂停,挥之不去的关税阴影驱使美国进口商抢进口。当下我们回顾前 四个月美国进口数据,重点解析"抢什么商品"、"从哪抢进口"两大核心问题, 从而或可为后续美国进口形势展望提供分析基础。 (一)加了多少关税? 左 观 机 元 每周经济观察 2025年07月 03日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:张瑜 电话:010-66500887 邮箱:zhangyu3@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360518090001 证券分析师:夏雪 邮箱:xiaxue@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360524070004 相关研究报告 在分析抢进口之前,首先一个小问题是,美国有效关税率究竟提高了多少?有 效关税率定义为关税收入/进口额,4月,美国整体进口有效关税率飙升至 7%, 2024年为 2.3%,其中,对中国有效关税率升至 37.5%,3月为25%,2024年 为 10.6%;对中国以外地区有效关税率升至3.9%;3月为1.8 ...

Core Insights - Vorasidenib, the world's first dual-target IDH inhibitor, has been approved for clinical use in Beijing to treat patients with IDH-mutant diffuse gliomas, enhancing treatment options for this patient group [1][2] - The drug is designed to penetrate the blood-brain barrier and specifically targets IDH1 and IDH2 mutations, marking a significant breakthrough in the treatment of low-grade gliomas [2] - Vorasidenib's introduction in Beijing is facilitated by an innovative policy that accelerates the approval of urgently needed imported drugs, significantly reducing patient wait times for new therapies [3] Group 1 - Vorasidenib is now available in designated medical institutions in Beijing, with initial treatments taking place at major hospitals [1] - The drug addresses the high mortality and recurrence rates associated with IDH-mutant diffuse gliomas, where over 90% of patients experience recurrence despite current treatment options [1] - The median age of onset for patients with IDH-mutant diffuse gliomas is around 40 years, with many facing significant physical and psychological challenges post-surgery [1] Group 2 - Vorasidenib has received approvals in multiple countries, including the US, Canada, Australia, and others, with its introduction in Beijing being part of a broader strategy to enhance access to innovative treatments [3] - The 2024 NCCN guidelines and the Chinese Anti-Cancer Association's updated guidelines now recommend IDH inhibitors for postoperative adjuvant therapy in patients with IDH-mutant gliomas [2] - The inclusion of Vorasidenib in the Beijing Universal Health Insurance special drug list enhances patient access to this treatment, improving their overall treatment experience [3]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 关税战下的美国抢进口：规模、区域和结构 ——海外周报第 96 期 主要观点 从两个视角看：1）主要区域进口增速。从这个角度看，今年以来进口暴涨的 拉动主要源自欧元区、东盟、中国台湾地区、澳大利亚和印度。1-4月美国进 口累计同比（按人口普查局口径，后文同）为 19.3%，上述 5区域合计拉动美 国进口同比 11个点。4月美国整体进口增速下滑至 1.9%，上述 5区域中，东 盟、中国台湾地区和印度仍然保持较强拉动，合计约为5.7个点，而欧元区拉 动转负，拖累约 0.1 个点。 2）主要区域进口空运占比。从这个角度看，今年以来抢进口最强的（2025Q1 相比于 2024年空运进口占比提升最多的）或是澳大利亚、欧元区、印度、越 南（或东盟整体）、中国台湾地区。与此同时，上述五个经济体中，4月单月空 运进口占比相比 2025Q1下降的主要有澳大利亚、欧元区，或反映这两个区域 抢进口动能边际衰减。 核心观点：四问美国抢进口：1）美国有效关税率究竟提高了多少？4月升至 7%，2024 年为 2.3%，其中，对中国为 37.5%（2024 年为 10.6%），对中国以 外 ...

6月30日，在广西凭祥友谊关口岸，满载泰国榴莲、越南菠萝蜜等水果的跨境车辆排满了整个查验 平台，等待海关查验合格后，快速进入国内市场。 为助力东盟水果"抢鲜"进入国内市场，友谊关海关强化政策宣讲，采用"线上+线下"方式为企业解 读水果进口政策、提供通关业务咨询，一揽子解决收发货人备案、检疫审批、货物申报、现场查验等问 题。持续提升智慧监管水平，优化"智慧物流管控平台"系统功能，加强对进口水果通关全流程21个环节 精准管控，确保车辆始终行驶在最优路线上；应用"智慧友谊关"App和智能查验辅助管理系统，实现进 境水果通关全程可视化监管，现场业务办理效率提升45%，查验平台周转效率提升35%，进境水果通关 便利化水平大幅提升。 数据显示，今年1—5月，广西口岸菠萝蜜、西瓜、芒果、火龙果分别进口19.4万吨、11.9万吨、6.8 万吨、3.4万吨，同比分别增长108.8%、266.7%、15.4倍、265.5%，合计占同期广西口岸水果进口总量 的73.1%。（田希霞 赵卫东） 今年5月以来，东南亚热带水果集中上市，大量榴莲、菠萝蜜等进口水果经广西口岸进入国内市 场，丰富消费者的"果盘子"。据南宁海关统计，前5个月广西 ...

级. 任何 研形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发、需注明出处为"广发期 | 油脂产业期现日报 | | --- | | 王泽辉 Z0019938 2025年7月3日 | | 受湘 | | 7月2日 7月1日 涨跌 旅跌幅 | | 现价 8260 8240 20 | | 期价 Y2509 8018 7972 46 0.58% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏6月 09+220 09+250 -30 - | | 仓单 20582 2115 10.28% | | 棕榈油 | | 7月1日 涨跌 张跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8460 8430 30 0.36% | | 期价 P2509 8440 8336 104 1.25% | | 某差 P2509 20 ਰੇ ਕੇ -74 -78.72% | | 现货墓差报价 广东6月 09+250 09+250 0 - | | 1.48% | | 盘面进口利润 -408 -383 -25 -6.58% 广州港9月 | | 仓单 470 470 0 0.00% | | 菜籽油 | | 7月1日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 9730 9630 100 现价 江苏四级 1.04% | | 期价 ...

澳大利亚5月进口 3.8%，前值 1.1%。 ...

澳大利亚5月进口月率 3.8%，前值1.10%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices reached a three-month high due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs, which increased the premium of U.S. copper over LME copper, despite a moderate inflow of LME copper stocks alleviating tightness in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Copper Market - On July 2, LME three-month copper rose by $79, or 0.8%, closing at $10,013 per ton, with an intraday high of $10,020.5, the highest level since March 26 [1][2]. - The premium of U.S. Comex copper over LME copper is 14%, as market expectations suggest that the investigation into potential U.S. copper import tariffs will take longer, while the White House focuses on "reciprocal" tariff negotiations [3][4]. - Alastair Munro from Marex stated that U.S. copper is the real leader in the market, with LME spot copper contracts trading at a premium of $85 per ton over three-month copper, down from $320 per ton last week, the highest level since November 2021 [4]. Group 2: Other Metals Market - LME three-month aluminum increased by $21.5, or 0.83%, closing at $2,620.0 per ton [5]. - LME three-month zinc rose by $43.5, or 1.6%, closing at $2,757.5 per ton [6]. - LME three-month lead increased by $21.5, or 1.05%, closing at $2,059.5 per ton [7]. - LME three-month nickel rose by $96, or 0.63%, closing at $15,302.0 per ton [8]. - LME three-month tin increased by $53, or 0.16%, closing at $33,714.0 per ton [9].

金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（7月3日） 1. 关于"唐山7月4-15日烧结机限产30%"的传闻，Mysteel调研了解，目前约半数钢厂表示有收到通知， 剩余多数钢厂也表示大概率确实有。6月25日Mysteel烧结矿数据显示，唐山市12家钢铁企业（产能占比 60%），烧结矿日产27万吨，产能利用率83%；若按照计划执行限产政策后，产能利用率或将下降至 70%，烧结矿日产或将减少3万吨。 2. 据Mysteel，7月2日鄂尔多斯地区多数煤矿保持平稳生产，部分上月完成生产任务减产、停产煤矿已 陆续复产，整体煤炭供应逐渐恢复。 3. 贸易机构数据显示，印度6月份棕榈油进口量环比激增61%，达到95.3万吨，为11个月来的最高水 平；6月食用油总进口量环比增长30%，达到153万吨，为7个月来的最高水平。 4. 阿联酋富查伊拉石油工业区最新数据显示，截至6月30日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油总库存为 1915.6万桶，比一周前增加了3.6万桶。 5. 据隆众资讯，截至2025年7月2日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在67.37万吨，较上一期数据增加0.32万吨。 其中，华东地区累库，库存增加1.35万吨；华南地区去库 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic high-quality specialty wheat is gaining traction in the market due to increased support for breeding and promotion, leading to a significant reduction in imports and a shift towards local procurement by enterprises [1][2][4] Group 1: Industry Developments - The government has implemented quality grain projects and seed industry revitalization actions, enhancing support for the breeding and promotion of domestic high-quality wheat varieties [1][2] - Precision agricultural technology has been integrated to significantly improve the yield and quality stability of high-quality wheat, with some varieties comparable to imported ones [2][3] - The domestic wheat import volume dropped to 1.61 million tons from January to May this year, a decrease of 80.1% year-on-year, creating market space for domestic high-quality wheat [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for high-quality specialty wheat is rising due to consumption upgrades and the refined development of the food industry, with different wheat types catering to various food products [1][2] - The domestic high-quality specialty wheat has become dominant in the medium-gluten wheat market, with increasing market share in high-end strong-gluten and weak-gluten wheat segments [2] Group 3: Challenges and Recommendations - Despite improvements, domestic high-quality specialty wheat still faces challenges in key indicators like gluten strength and stability compared to imported high-end varieties [3] - There is a lack of collaboration in the supply chain, with some flour processing enterprises still relying on imports, leading to underutilization of the market value of high-quality wheat [3] - To enhance market recognition and sustainable development, it is essential to cultivate high-yield, resilient new varieties and support contract farming with insurance mechanisms to ensure stable income for farmers [3][4]