金十图示：2025年07月02日（周三）上海金午盘价为771.38元/克，较国际金价(767.22元/克)，高4.16元/克 现货黄金 ...

金十数据7月2日讯，惠誉旗下BMI的分析师表示，黄金的涨势似乎已经走到了尽头。他们写道，鉴于贸 易不确定性、地缘政治紧张局势加剧、美元走软以及央行购买量不断增加，黄金仍处于高位。 然而， 要想金价突破4月份创下的3500美元/盎司的历史新高，要么是中东地区爆发战争，要么是美联储大幅降 息。BMI维持其对2025年黄金年平均价格的预测为每盎司3100美元。 惠誉旗下BMI：黄金的涨势似乎已经走到了尽头 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for gold prices to break through 1200 yuan per gram in the second half of the year, analyzing key factors and predictions for the market [1][18]. Current Price and Target Gap - As of July 2025, domestic gold jewelry prices range from 1000 to 1010 yuan per gram, with brands like Chow Sang Sang at 1000 yuan and Chow Tai Fook at 998 yuan [1]. - The current international gold price is 3320 USD per ounce (approximately 760 yuan per gram), indicating that a target price of 1200 yuan per gram requires a 20% increase, necessitating the international price to exceed 4500 USD per ounce [3]. Historical Comparison - The peak price for gold jewelry in April 2025 was 1082 yuan per gram (with international gold at 3500 USD per ounce) [3]. - To reach 1200 yuan, gold prices must surpass the historical peak by 11%, which is significantly higher than current market momentum [3]. Supporting Factors for Price Increase - A continued depreciation of the US dollar could stimulate short-term gold price increases if the dollar index falls below 90 (currently at 99.7) [3]. - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (potentially 100 basis points this year) could also support gold prices, although the implementation of such policies remains uncertain [3]. - Escalating geopolitical conflicts, such as renewed violence in the Middle East and increased trade tensions with the US, may drive demand for gold as a safe haven [4]. Central Bank Purchases - In 2024, global central banks purchased a net total of 1045 tons of gold, and if this trend continues at a rate of 1000 tons annually, it could provide long-term support for gold prices [5]. Core Constraints - The premium pressure on gold jewelry is significant, with processing fees exceeding 200 yuan per gram. If international prices do not rise, retail prices may struggle to surpass 1100 yuan [6]. - A strong technical resistance level exists at 3400 USD per ounce, and breaking through this requires robust fundamental support [7]. - Consumer sentiment is currently low, with many potential buyers waiting for prices to drop to around 600-700 yuan per gram [7]. Institutional Perspectives - There are differing views among institutions regarding gold price forecasts: - Bullish outlooks from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan predict prices reaching 3700 USD (approximately 1120 yuan) by year-end and potentially challenging 4000 USD (around 1200 yuan) by 2026 [9]. - Bearish views from CITIC Securities and Citigroup suggest that if risk appetite declines and the dollar strengthens, prices could fall to 2500-2700 USD (approximately 600-650 yuan) [9]. - Neutral perspectives from Nanhua Futures expect prices to remain in the 1000-1100 yuan range with increased volatility but unlikely to break previous highs [9]. Conclusion - The likelihood of gold prices breaking 1200 yuan per gram in the near term is low, with a more probable scenario being a range of 1000-1100 yuan per gram through 2025, with the target of 1200 yuan potentially delayed until 2026 [10].

现货黄金 金十图示：2025年07月02日（周三）上海金早盘价为771.23元/克，较国际金价(767.25元/克)，高3.98元/克 ...

山东黄金 20250701 摘要 焦家金矿扰动曾导致山东黄金产量和利润大幅下降，成本显著上升，但 预计 2025 年产量逐步恢复，成本端压力有望缓解，推动市场对其二季 度业绩改善的预期。 山东黄金作为贵金属板块龙头，其股价强势表现预示着整个板块可能迎 来转折，尤其是在金价相对疲软的情况下，更显现出公司自身及板块的 潜力。 2024 年山东黄金业绩不佳主要源于焦家金矿的矿山扰动，导致产量下 降和成本上升，但 2025 年预计产量恢复，成本有望控制在 310 元/克左 右，二季度业绩预期为 18-20 亿元。 市场对山东黄金的业绩预期经历了一季度后的下调，但随着矿山恢复， 分析师逐步上调预期，目前一致预期已上调至 60 亿左右，乐观预期甚 至达到 75-78 亿，带来市值修复。 管理层变动一度对山东黄金产生影响，但随着新任董事长上任，公司有 望重拾新目标和规划，自二季度开始进入明显修复期，盈利端预期逐步 提升。 Q&A 山东黄金在近期表现强势的原因是什么？ 山东黄金近期表现强势的核心原因在于市场对其二季度业绩的乐观预期。去年 （2024 年）山东黄金的业绩表现不佳，尤其是在二季度、三季度和四季度， 业绩相较市场预 ...

7月1日，国际金价出现转涨行情。据wind数据， 现货黄金涨1.43%，报3349.38美元/盎 司 。受此影响，此前下跌数日的国内金饰价格，也同步上扬。周生生足金饰品报价再次达 到1000元/克，较前一日985元/克上涨15元。 | 07.01 | 六福珠宝 | 998元/克 | 涨9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 07.01 | 等支撑 | 998元/克 | 涨9 | | 07.01 | 潮宏基 | 998元/克 | :3KO | | 07.01 | 老凤祥 | 999元/克 | 涨12 | | 07.01 | 老庙黄金 | 995元/克 | 涨11 | | 07.01 | 菜百首饰 | 978元/克 | 持平 | | 07.01 | 周六福 | 978元/克 | 涨9 | | 07.01 | 周大生 | 998元/克 | 涨9 | 据悉，今年上半年，国际金价延续去年以来的强劲涨势，主要原因是全球多国央行、机构投 资者加速推进多元化投资，减持美元资产。同时，全球多国普通消费者加大实物黄金购买力 度来对冲投资风险，国际金价今年上半年累计上涨22.22%。 据中新经纬此前报道， ...

3. 市场供需：黄金市场呈现分裂景象，美国市场金条和金币供过于求，投资者抛售；而亚太地区对金条 和金币需求强势增长，中国市场同比增长12%。全球央行对黄金增持意愿依然强劲，超90%受访央行认 为未来12个月内全球央行将继续增持黄金。 走势点评 1. 地缘政治局势：俄乌、以伊为引导的全球地缘政治变革仍是金价偏强基础。全球地缘政治冲突不断、 经济形势复杂多变，黄金作为"避险资产"和"硬通货"，价值受广泛关注。中国、越南、印度等新兴市场 国家官方增持黄金也是金价维稳的关键。 2. 美元走势：美元走弱和避险需求持续，推动黄金期货价格连续第二天走高。不过目前美元已处于严重 超卖状态，若后续出现反弹，一方面将提高以美元计价的大宗商品购买成本，另一方面美元本身也可能 成为黄金的替代避险选择。 截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为777.1元/克，上涨0.84%。 黄金价格短期受美元走势、地缘政治和市场供需等因素影响，波动较为频繁。近期因美元走弱、避险需 求增加而上涨，但需警惕美元反弹风险。从长期来看，全球地缘政治冲突不断、经济形势复杂，以及各 国央行持续购金，为黄金价格提供支撑，上涨趋势未改。银河证券等机构认 ...

本文基于以下微博话题的智搜结果生成 高盛关于2025年底金价涨至3700美元/盎司的预测具有一定支撑逻辑，但需结合市场动态和机构分歧理性评 估其可行性： 一、高盛预测的核心依据 央行购金持续强劲 2025年全球央行购金量保持高位（如2月单月购金106吨），中国、印度等新兴市场推动外汇储备多元化， 中国还允许保险公司配置黄金（潜在需求280吨），构成长期托底力量。 衰退风险与降息预期 高盛评估美国未来12个月衰退概率达45%，若衰退发生，黄金ETF资金流入将激增，推升金价至3880美 元。 美联储降息预期提前至9月，美元疲软（美元指数跌至2022年以来低位）进一步利好黄金。 地缘与政策不确定性 特朗普关税政策反复（7月9日关税缓冲期截止）、中东冲突等风险事件削弱美元信用，强化黄金避险属 性。 | 瑞银 | 3500美元 | 降息支撑但涨幅受限 | | 花旗 | 2500-2700美元 | 经济改善削弱投资需求 | | 德商银行 | 3400美元 | 温和看涨 | 短期波动风险 技术面承压：6月金价从3440美元高位暴跌至3246美元，若经济数据超预期（如非农就业）或地缘缓和， 可能回踩3200-3300美元区间 ...

本文基于以下微博话题的智搜结果生成 美元汇率下跌确实是支撑金价上涨的重要因素，但短期内推动金饰克价涨至1200元的可能性较低，具体 需结合以下多维度分析： 一、美元与金价的联动逻辑 负相关关系 美元走弱通常利好以美元计价的黄金： 计价效应：美元贬值使黄金对其他货币持有者更便宜，刺激全球需求。 替代效应：美元信用弱化时，投资者转向黄金避险（如2025年美联储降息预期下美元指数跌至2022年3 月以来最低，推动金价反弹）。 历史验证：2025年6月末美元疲软期间，国际金价单日反弹0.92%，国内金饰跟涨15元/克。 当前美元对金价的实际影响 近期美元疲软虽支撑金价，但涨幅受限于： 其他货币同步波动：非美货币若同步贬值，削弱黄金吸引力。 美联储政策不确定性：即使降息，若通胀反弹可能延缓宽松步伐。 三、其他核心变量影响 地缘政治敏感性 中东局势缓和曾导致金价单日跌3.5%，若冲突复燃可能触发短期冲高，但难持续支撑1200元高位。 市场情绪与杠杆风险 投机泡沫：当前金价已含高风险溢价，技术指标出现顶背离。 杠杆放大波动：纸黄金市场存在挤兑风险，暴涨暴跌可能加剧（如5月投资者单日亏47万案例）。 替代资产分流 ⚖️ 二、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential for gold prices to reach $3,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 is supported by various market dynamics, institutional forecasts, and influencing factors [1][17]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Price Increase - Major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, have raised their forecasts multiple times, predicting gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, with a possibility of $4,000 by mid-2026 due to geopolitical risks, weakening dollar credit, and ongoing central bank purchases [1]. - The long-term upward cycle for gold remains intact, with significant support from central bank purchases, as global central banks have been net buyers for 16 consecutive years, adding 244 tons in Q1 2025 [2][5]. - Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut could further weaken the dollar, which has already fallen to its lowest level since March 2022, potentially boosting gold prices [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Structural Demand - Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the fragility of Middle East ceasefire agreements and fluctuating U.S.-China tariff negotiations, may reignite safe-haven demand for gold [4]. - The structural demand for gold is reinforced by the fact that 95% of central banks plan to continue increasing their gold reserves over the next 12 months [5]. Group 3: Risks to Price Increase - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices fall below $3,165 per ounce, a technical correction of 10-15% could occur, potentially bringing prices down to the $2,500-$2,700 range [6]. - Current gold prices are detached from actual production costs, indicating a risk of valuation correction due to high price levels [7]. - If strong non-farm payroll data or inflation rebounds occur, the Fed may delay interest rate cuts, which could suppress gold prices [8]. Group 4: Institutional Divergence - There is a divergence among institutions regarding gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs predicting $3,700, UBS over $3,500, while Citigroup warns of a potential drop to the $2,500-$2,700 range [11]. Group 5: Investor Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to maintain rationality amid short-term volatility and avoid chasing price movements, as gold prices are highly sensitive to policy changes [12]. - A recommended allocation for gold in household financial assets is between 5-10%, with a strategy of dollar-cost averaging into gold ETFs to mitigate timing risks [12]. - Key policy anchors to monitor include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the political landscape surrounding U.S. elections [13].