German factory orders dropped for the first time in four months as businesses at home were wary of committing to large investments before uncertainty over trade with the US is resolved https://t.co/PI6taon7mn ...

3 July 2025 | 11:09AM EDT Global Economics Comment: A Surprisingly Small Uncertainty Drag (Briggs/Dong) A Surprisingly Small Uncertainty Drag Trade policy uncertainty rose in most countries after President Trump's election victory (and spiked sharply following Liberation Day on April 2), exceeding levels observed during the 2018-19 trade war. While uncertainty indices remain high Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and o ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Consumer sentiment toward the economy and household finances has stabilized amid ongoing tariff concerns, with inflation remaining the primary concern for consumers [1][7] - The report indicates a slight decline in consumer confidence regarding the economic outlook, with 37% expecting improvement and 47% anticipating deterioration, resulting in a NET score of -10% [7][61] - Concerns over tariffs remain elevated but stable, with 39% of consumers very concerned, down from 43% in April [7][14] - The spending outlook remains stable, with 32% of consumers planning to spend more in the next month, yielding a NET of +15% [19][84] - Travel intentions are strong, with approximately 60% of consumers planning to travel in the next six months, reflecting optimism in leisure travel [117] Consumer Sentiment - Inflation is the top concern for consumers at 57%, down from 59% last month, while political concerns have risen to 43% [8][37] - Geopolitical conflict concerns increased to 31% this month from 21% last month [7][8] - Low-income consumers are more worried about paying rent/mortgage and debts, while upper-income consumers focus on investment concerns [9][42] Macro Outlook - Consumer confidence in the U.S. economy is slightly down, with 37% expecting improvement and 47% expecting deterioration, leading to a NET score of -10% [61][71] - The outlook for household finances remains positive, with 43% expecting improvement and a NET score of +16% [64][70] Tariff Impact - 39% of consumers report being very concerned about tariffs, with 33% planning to cut back on spending in response [14][19] - The level of concern about tariffs varies significantly by political affiliation, with 63% of liberals very concerned compared to 23% of conservatives [14][50] Spending Intentions - The short-term spending outlook is stable, with 32% of consumers expecting to spend more next month, yielding a NET of +15% [84][88] - 30% of consumers reported making a major purchase in the past three months, with 58% planning a major purchase in the next three months [97][98] Travel Intentions - Approximately 60% of consumers plan to travel in the next six months, with visiting friends and family being the most common reason [117][119]

Core Insights - Comfort Systems USA (FIX) is significantly impacted by tariff uncertainties due to its 37% revenue from advanced tech projects, including data centers and semiconductor fabs [1][8] - The company has a strong backlog of $6.9 billion, reflecting a 16% year-over-year increase, indicating robust demand in tech and institutional markets [3][8] - Comfort Systems' management believes that their pricing strategy and strong customer relationships will help mitigate the impact of tariff-related cost pressures [2][4] Company Overview - Comfort Systems has locked in most large project costs early, relying on solid supplier quotes, which helps manage inflation risks [2] - The company is experiencing strong momentum in healthcare construction, which is emerging as a new growth engine [3] - Comfort Systems' execution, margin discipline, and customer relationships are seen as strong enough to absorb localized cost shifts due to tariffs [4] Competitive Landscape - EMCOR Group (EME) faces similar tariff-related risks, with significant revenue from mechanical and electrical contracting, but has a diversified portfolio that provides resilience [5] - Limbach Holdings (LMB) is more narrowly focused and has less flexibility to absorb cost shocks compared to Comfort Systems, which has a broader geographic reach and deeper backlog [6] Financial Performance - Comfort Systems' stock has increased by 78.8% over the past three months, outperforming the industry and the S&P 500 [7] - The company is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 26.7X, which is a discount compared to industry peers [10] - Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have increased to $19.28 and $20.41 per share, indicating year-over-year growth of 32.1% and 5.8%, respectively [11]

Venture capital dealmaking in Latin America has hit the slowest pace in almost seven years, in part due to global economic uncertainty and a pullback from US investors in the region https://t.co/N19Ts596lL ...

Core Insights - NIKE, Inc. is facing challenges in footwear demand due to shifting consumer preferences and macroeconomic factors, leading to a decline in classic footwear sales while performance categories show growth [2][3][9] Footwear Demand and Market Trends - Footwear demand has been sluggish, particularly in classic sneakers and bulky dad shoes, influenced by inflation and consumer price sensitivity [2] - NIKE's classic footwear franchises are projected to decline by more than 10 percentage points as a part of its overall footwear mix [3] - The company expects total unit volumes to drop in double digits, particularly in the Dunk franchise [3][9] Revenue Projections - Footwear revenues for NIKE are expected to decline by 13.1% year-over-year in fiscal 2025 and by 3.3% in fiscal 2026 [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year earnings plunge of 21.3% for fiscal 2025, followed by a growth of 54% in fiscal 2026 [11] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like adidas and lululemon are intensifying their efforts in the footwear market, posing a threat to NIKE's dominance through innovation and targeted market expansion [5][6][7] - adidas is focusing on collaborations and marketing to enhance its brand presence, while lululemon is developing its footwear line with a focus on biomechanics and gender-specific designs [6][7] Stock Performance and Valuation - NIKE shares have gained 2.2% year-to-date, contrasting with a 1.5% decline in the industry [8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 41.68X, which is higher than the industry average of 30.63X [10]

[Music] Have you ever noticed how we are more connected than ever and yet somehow lonier than ever. We are always online, always reachable and yet something still feels missing. Strange, right.It's like living in a paradox. Connection everywhere, but real connection nowhere. Take selfies for example.This is the formal version of me. And these are me with my selfies. The filtered fun post under perfect kind of selfies.But before I move on, I want you all to do a small activity with me. I want you to take out ...

Chile’s central bank said its decision to hold rates last month was the best option given higher uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict https://t.co/W44l59uXXh ...

Group 1: Company Actions - Microsoft is implementing mass layoffs, cutting approximately 4% of its workforce, equating to about 9,000 roles across the company [1] - Microsoft Gaming chief Phil Spencer indicated that the company will end or decrease work in certain areas to focus on strategic growth and increase agility by removing layers of management [2] - Xbox Game Studios head Matt Booty confirmed the cancellation of several games, including "Perfect Dark" and "Everwild," and mentioned the closure of The Initiative studio [3] Group 2: Game Cancellations - The cancellation of "Perfect Dark," a reboot of the classic FPS series, is significant, with development ongoing since 2018 and gameplay footage shown in June 2024 [4] - "Everwild," a new IP from Rare, has also been canceled after a tumultuous development period, having been announced in 2019 and rebooted in 2021 [5][6] - An untitled MMORPG from Zenimax Online Studios, codenamed "Blackbird," which was intended as a successor to "Elder Scrolls Online," has also been put on hold [6][7] Group 3: Industry Impact - The layoffs and game cancellations highlight job instability in the gaming industry, raising concerns about the future of major game releases and overall confidence among gamers [8][9] - The cancellations of high-profile titles like "Perfect Dark" and "Everwild" could impact Microsoft's release schedule in the coming years, although all games showcased during the 2025 Xbox Games Showcase will continue development [9]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The World Bank anticipates Thailand's monetary policy to become "more accommodative" in the current year [1] Economic Uncertainty - Mounting external and domestic uncertainty are factors influencing the expected monetary policy shift [1]