Federal Reserve and Economic Projections - The Senate confirmed Stephen Meyer as a temporary Fed member, raising concerns about potential conflicts of interest due to his dual role in the White House [2][3] - The market is currently pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut, with speculation about a possible 50 basis point cut depending on economic projections [4][6] - The summary of economic projections will be crucial in determining future rate movements and inflation expectations [5][8] Market Reactions and Trends - Equity markets are moving higher as yields on 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year bonds decline, indicating a favorable rate environment [6][7] - The dollar is weakening, reaching its lowest point since July, which typically signals aggressive rate cuts [7] - Gold prices are hitting record highs, driven by its role as an inflation hedge and the ongoing purchases by central banks [10][11] Labor Market and Inflation Concerns - There are concerns about labor market weakness, which may influence the Fed's decisions moving forward [20] - The potential for persistent inflation remains, with wage growth needing to outpace inflation for positive economic outcomes [15][16] Oracle and TikTok Deal Speculation - Oracle's stock is experiencing upward momentum due to speculation about its involvement in a potential TikTok deal, positioning it as a key player in US-China trade discussions [26][28] - Other social media stocks, such as Meta, are not facing significant downward pressure, indicating a broader market optimism [29]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's actions are perceived as attempts to limit or eliminate the Federal Reserve's independence, which could lead to weaker economic growth, higher inflation, and increased unemployment [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - 82% of respondents believe Trump's actions are aimed at limiting the Fed's independence [1] - 41% of economists and strategists think the actions are directly aimed at eliminating the Fed's independence, while another 41% believe they are designed to limit it [2] - A majority (68%) expect upward pressure on inflation due to the president's actions [4] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Respondents forecast a decline in the Fed Funds rate from 4.38% to 3.66% this year, reflecting three quarter-point cuts [7] - The probability of a recession has increased to 40%, with 55% anticipating a moderate recession lasting about 10 months [8] - The growth outlook remains unchanged at 1.5% for 2025, with a rebound to 2% in 2026 [8] Group 3: Tariffs and Inflation - 86% of respondents expect price increases due to tariffs, with half believing substantial increases are forthcoming [9] - The average respondent estimates that 31% of the tariff burden is borne by consumers, contradicting the administration's claims [9] - Tariffs are viewed as the primary threat to economic expansion, followed by uncertainty around the administration's policies [10]

Spain’s government and central bank raised their economic-growth forecasts for 2025, cementing the country’s status as the region’s top major performer after a bumper second quarter https://t.co/4G4CWi7Lje ...

Global equities are likely to rally even higher as a jump in economic growth expectations is keeping stock bulls firmly in control, according to Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett https://t.co/tZ21goU1kP ...

Group 1: China’s Economic Initiatives - China is rolling out policies to invigorate service consumption and tourism, including issuing 5-year multiple-entry visas to a broader range of individuals and extending business hours for tourist attractions and museums [2][3][9] - The country aims to expand pilot programs in strategic sectors such as telecommunications, healthcare, and education to attract global capital and open up the economy [3][9] - China plans to promote international sporting events, targeting a total scale of the sports industry to exceed 7 trillion yuan ($982 billion) by 2030, as part of its strategy to make domestic demand the primary engine of economic growth [3][9] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Stance - The ECB is maintaining a cautious approach to future interest rate adjustments, with Governing Council member Scicluna stating that there are no planned cuts, emphasizing a data-dependent approach [4][9] Group 3: Automotive Industry Developments - Ford Motor Company is set to cut 1,000 jobs at its Cologne plant in Germany in early 2026 as part of a broader restructuring effort across Europe, with a total workforce reduction of approximately 4,000 employees by 2027 [5][9]

The Congressional Budget Office is projecting higher inflation and unemployment this year with slowing economic growth ahead. Joining us right now to discuss it is CBO Director Phil Swaggel. And Phil, thanks for coming in today.>> Yeah, Becky, thanks so much. Thanks for having me. >> So, the new numbers, the new estimates take into account several things.One is uh population growth because of immigration. You're anticipating that it's going to be significantly lower. The other is the big one big beautiful b ...

While slowing job growth and tariff-related costs remain primary concerns, many investors believe tax cuts and falling interest rates will fuel a new burst of growth https://t.co/S7sIr3A8cH ...

China’s retail sales and factory output grew last month at the slowest pace this year, deepening concern over the health of the world’s second-largest economy: Here is your Evening Briefing. https://t.co/7koGsfWb3T ...

Job numbers may be soggy, but Americans are still spending, retail sales look solid and stockmarkets keep hitting all-time highs. The country’s economic picture is surprisingly strong https://t.co/GB8dCW6KMY ...

In the rosiest scenario artificial general intelligence will arrive and usher in a new world of economic growth of perhaps 20% a year.More mundane scenarios should also be considered, however https://t.co/R7bD5mWwlb ...