Inflation Expectations - One-year inflation expectations increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.4%, the highest since April 2025 [2] - Five-year inflation expectations also rose, up 0.1 percentage points to 3%, reaching the highest level since May 2024 [2] - Inflation expectations are increasing for essential goods and services, including food, gas, medical care, and rent [2] - The Fed is closely monitoring the five-year inflation outlook, concerned about the potential for a shift in long-term inflation expectations [7] Labor Market - Expectations for earnings growth decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.4%, marking the lowest level since May 2021 [3] - Expectations for higher unemployment increased by 2 percentage points to 41.1%, the highest since April 2025 [3] - Expectations for job loss increased by 0.4 percentage points to 14.9%, reaching the highest level since April 2025 [4] - Expectations for finding a job increased by 2.5 percentage points, rebounding from a series low [4] Spending and Monetary Policy - Spending growth expectations declined by 0.3 percentage points to 4.7% [5] - A Fed governor suggests the neutral rate may be higher than previously thought, influenced by supply-side policies [5]

RT robbie (@robbie_rollup)SINGAPORE SPECIAL: Trump’s Fed Takeover Will Send Bitcoin to $250K with @CryptoHayesI sat down with Arthur Hayes at Token2049 to unpack his thesis for why Bitcoin could hit $250K by year-end.It all starts with Trump’s secret plan to take control of the Federal Reserve. In today's episode, Arthur explains how the next financial regime shift plays out, covering:• How Trump seizes control of the Fed• Why Lisa Cook is the final domino• Yield Curve control & regional banking strategy• H ...

The fourth quarter has kicked off, with plenty of potential catalysts to push the markets in either direction. Amplify ETFs CEO Christian Magoon and Blackrock’s U.S. head of equity ETFs Jay Jacobs sit down with CNBC’s Seema Mody to discuss how investors are managing the government shutdown, uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve, geopolitical factors and other volatility. ...

THE GREAT DEBASEMENT TRADE IS ON.Great podcast with Arthur about his Q4 outlook, what’s to come for the global economy & the “presidential poker” game being played on the biggest stage today.Enjoy.robbie (@robbie_rollup):SINGAPORE SPECIAL: Trump’s Fed Takeover Will Send Bitcoin to $250K with @CryptoHayesI sat down with Arthur Hayes at Token2049 to unpack his thesis for why Bitcoin could hit $250K by year-end.It all starts with Trump’s secret plan to take control of the Federal Reserve. In https://t.co/xOjqw ...

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 FED GOVERNOR STEPHEN MIRAN DEMANDS AGGRESSIVE INTEREST RATE CUTS OF UP TO 50 BPS. https://t.co/IkyK78FjE9 ...

We start with the jobs market, where soft data are holding the Federal Reserve back from cutting rates more and cutting them faster. Steve Rattner is chair and CEO of Willett Advisors, which manages the personal and philanthropic money of Michael Bloomberg, our founder and majority shareholder. Steve has been watching the US economy closely as an investor and gave us his outlook.Steve, the labor market is really top and center. We got a prior problem before we get to the state of the labor union, which is w ...

On episode LXXII of "In The Know" (October 3, 2025), ARK CEO/CIO Cathie Wood delves into the current economic landscape amidst a government shutdown, highlighting the surprising resilience of the stock market. She discusses significant employment revisions, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and the impact of tariffs on inflation. Cathie also explores the potential for a productivity-driven economic boom, the challenges in the housing market, and the evolving role of technology and innovation in shap ...

From @WSJopinion: Imagine a gleaming new Federal Reserve bank on the shore in Miami and another in the Phoenix desert. This isn’t a fanciful dream but a real possibility. It’s one of the many reforms the Fed should consider, writes Marc Sumerlin. https://t.co/725Kd54OHS ...

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is largely indifferent to political events such as government shutdowns, with a belief that any short-term impacts will be reversed in the medium term [2][3] - Focus remains on fundamentals, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and upcoming earnings reports, particularly from banks [3][4] Consumer Behavior - Recent reports from companies like Dicks indicate that consumer spending remains stable, despite ongoing concerns about consumer health [4] Investment Themes - The conversation around investment is shifting towards identifying tier three opportunities in the power sector, as tier one and tier two stocks have already garnered significant attention [5] - There is a prevailing theme of overinvestment in certain sectors, with notable figures like Zuckerberg suggesting that the risk lies in underinvesting rather than overinvesting [9] Market Cycle - Analysts are debating the current stage of the market cycle, with some suggesting that the market is further along than commonly perceived, potentially in the seventh inning of a capex boom [11] - There are concerns that if the capex spending is indeed nearing its peak, the current market rally may be shorter-lived than anticipated [13] Future Indicators - Key indicators to watch for potential market shifts include a decrease in capex, profit warnings, and changes in corporate financing activities, though no evidence of these changes is currently observed [14]

Well, as you know by now, there is no official jobs report today because of the government shutdown. But we found another way to try and get a look at employment in the month of September. We're going to call this our own squawk survey.Evans S is the CEO of Aura Intelligence. That's a platform for workforce analytics. Bill Dunlberg is the chief economist at the National Federation of Independent Businesses.Both have real data on the state of jobs in this country. And of course, we have our very own senior e ...