Let's set the scene. We talk about the first half of 2025. At the start of the year, the ten year yield was at 4.56%.It rose to 4.8% shortly before Donald Trump took office. After Liberation Day, it sunk to 3.86%. Now we're stuck at around 4.27%.That's a pretty wide range and it feels like everything has been priced in at some point during this year. What's not priced in. So what's nice about it so far, by the way.I'd say a couple of things. By the way, the best return opportunity this year across debt and ...

I want to talk about the Fed and cuts. I just did a snap poll on X and we have most people think to cuts. That seems a majority.Second, most would be one and then 13% said zero. I'm in the 13% camp. I just don't see the need for it.What's the problem here. Why cut rates. Why change something if it seems to be going so well right now.So. So I throw out one thing. So you think about the Fed raised interest rates 500 basis points.What was the impact on the economy. Not really debilitating. And I think one thin ...

I wouldn't say that I'm concerned about the data today, although clearly there has been a very mild degradation of the of the scope of this of the surveys and things like that. But I would say the direction of travel is is something I'm concerned about and that is um me measuring the US economy carefully and well is a project that's been going on and we're getting better at it for a hundred years and more. And it's really important not just for the Fed, but for Congress and for businesses, frankly, to know ...

US Economy Resilience - US economy is durable and can withstand a 15% effective tariff [1] - US economy is performing well, contrary to recession predictions [2] Market Sentiment - Markets are awaiting news regarding tariffs on China and Europe to stabilize [2] - Investors are holding a significant amount of cash, waiting for market clarity [2] - Abundance of cash is driving equity market increases [3]