Interest Rate Policy & Market Impact - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, with the first cut anticipated tomorrow [1] - Rate cuts reduce borrowing costs, potentially increasing consumption and corporate profits [1] - Lower rates can drive liquidity from lower-risk assets like T-bills to higher-risk assets such as stocks and crypto [2] Market Expectations & Catalysts - The market anticipates a greater than 75% probability of three or more rate cuts in 2025 [2] - Major catalysts include ETF approval, pro-crypto administration, and regulatory clarity [2] Potential Outcomes - Increased liquidity flow into Bitcoin and altcoins is expected as more rate cuts occur [2] - These catalysts, once liquidity flows, could be priced in, potentially leading to a parabolic Q4 rally [3]

We witnessed the S&P put in a new all-time high today. Just like yesterday, we were talking about the S&P making a new all-time high while crypto kind of just is sitting around playing the boring game. And during this time, we need to understand exactly what's happening, which again, if we're thinking about going all the way back to roughly the first quarter of this year, crypto was also playing the boring and frustrating game.while we saw markets like for example gold going insane again I talked about it y ...

The crucial area for $ETH to hold is around $4,400.If it starts going beneath that zone, then I'm expecting an acceleration and big liquidity flush.That's the ideal area to buy the dip from, but it might feel slightly scary. https://t.co/1Ohpdk2yGq ...

GLOBAL MONEY SUPPLY IS EXPLODING.BITCOIN IS THE GREAT ABSORBER OF LIQUIDITY.YOU ALREADY KNOW WHAT’S NEXT. https://t.co/KjkpuiXrNz ...

RT THE HUNTER ✴️ (@TrueGemHunter)REASONS WHY BITCOIN DOSEN'T FOLLOW STOCK MARKETS ‼️🔎 While Nasdaq & S&P 500 hitting fresh ATHs, $BTC struggles to break out.For many this looks strange… aren’t both “risk-on” assets?Here’s what’s really happening ⬇️1️⃣ ETF & Institutional FlowsEquities are fueled by massive inflows into tech stocks and ETFs.Bitcoin also sees inflows via Spot ETFs but they are inconsistent, with strong days followed by quiet ones.This creates lumpy demand vs. the steady bid in stocks.2️⃣ Liqu ...

REASONS WHY BITCOIN DOSEN'T FOLLOW STOCK MARKETS ‼️🔎 While Nasdaq & S&P 500 hitting fresh ATHs, $BTC struggles to break out.For many this looks strange… aren’t both “risk-on” assets?Here’s what’s really happening ⬇️1️⃣ ETF & Institutional FlowsEquities are fueled by massive inflows into tech stocks and ETFs.Bitcoin also sees inflows via Spot ETFs but they are inconsistent, with strong days followed by quiet ones.This creates lumpy demand vs. the steady bid in stocks.2️⃣ Liquidity DynamicsCEX balances for BT ...

Macroeconomic Outlook - The analysis suggests the economy is in a late phase, evidenced by central banks starting to ease, deteriorating job numbers, and declining short-term yields with topping long-term yields [1] - The real economy is facing challenges, with 156% of the US population struggling to put food on the table, impacted by high rates and inflation [1][5] - Liquidity cannot stem the tide of a rolling-over real economy, distinguishing the current situation from previous stimulus efforts [1] - The analyst anticipates non-farm payrolls will worsen, leading to a stock market top and a potential Bitcoin surge to $160,000, followed by a market correction [1][6] Market Bubbles and Valuations - The stock market is in a blowoff top, with market capitalization at 216% of GDP, exceeding levels seen in 2007 (109%), 2000 (136%), and 1929 (89%) [2] - The current bubble encompasses both tech stocks and the housing market, resembling a combination of the 2000 and 2007 crises [4] - Despite arguments about improved company efficiency and productivity, current valuations are historically high relative to the economy [3] Monetary Policy and Inflation - Central banks' attempts to stimulate the economy through monetary easing are likely to be ineffective due to reintroduced inflation and a struggling consumer [2][7] - The era of easy monetary policy is ending, with the Fed unable to sustain the real economy's downturn [2] - A deflationary phase is expected in the short term, followed by a resurgence of inflation due to continued stimulus efforts [7] Investment Strategy - The analysis suggests studying investment strategies from the 1940s to navigate the coming market shakeout [8] - Gold is recommended as a long-term investment, although it may experience a pullback during the deflationary bust [16][17] - Caution is advised regarding crypto investments, with a potential secular top in Bitcoin and a subsequent crash [6][7][19] - A strong dollar is anticipated during the deflationary phase, followed by a shift towards commodities, gold, and silver during stagflation [22]

Market Overview - The current market is experiencing record highs with the S&P and NASDAQ reaching new peaks, alongside gold prices also hitting record levels [1] - The economic backdrop remains strong with ongoing growth in GDP and other areas, while inflation has decreased to 2.9% from higher levels [3][4] - Liquidity in the market is robust, supported by significant deficit spending and a large M2 money supply [4][5] Investment Strategy - The investment approach focuses on three main factors: liquidity, inflation, and growth, which guide portfolio decisions [3] - There is a shift towards incorporating both growth and value stocks in the portfolio, with a particular emphasis on recovery value stocks [7][8] Stock Picks - **Dow Chemical**: Selected for its significant price drop (from around $60 to $24), strong balance sheet, and high dividend yield of 5%, making it a recovery value stock [7][8] - **Circle**: Important in the crypto and stablecoin space, with potential for growth as government support increases. The stock has dropped from $250 to $120, presenting a buying opportunity [10][12] - **Bullish**: Recently listed and currently trading lower, it has potential due to its association with notable figures in the industry and its role in crypto trading [15][17] - **Space Mobile**: Competing with Starlink, it has secured contracts and FCC approvals, showing growth potential despite being capital intensive [22][24] - **GitLab**: Positioned as a cost-efficient platform for enterprises, it is expected to benefit from the rising demand for AI software development, despite competition from GitHub [26][29]

Core Insights - Sezzle Inc.'s stock has increased by 127.9% over the past six months, outperforming both the industry and the broader market [1][7] - The company's On-Demand service has significantly contributed to its growth, with gross merchandise volume (GMV) rising by 74.2% year over year in the second quarter of 2025 [6][8] - Sezzle's financial metrics, including return on equity (ROE) and return on invested capital (ROIC), are well above industry averages, indicating strong profitability [10][18] Stock Performance - Sezzle's stock has outperformed peers such as FirstCash and Mastercard, with a year-to-date increase of 109.4% compared to FirstCash's 41.2% and Mastercard's 10.2% [4][7] - The stock's performance reflects a strong market position and investor confidence in the company's growth trajectory [1][18] On-Demand Growth - The On-Demand service started with 707,000 Monthly On-Demand Subscribers (MODS) in Q4 2024, experiencing a temporary decline of 7% year-over-year in Q1 2025, followed by a 14% growth in Q2 2025 [5][6] - Customer purchase frequency increased from 4.8 times to 6.1 times year-over-year, indicating higher engagement and repeat business [6][8] Profitability and Liquidity - Sezzle's operating margin improved by 680 basis points year over year to 36.6%, despite a 50.4% increase in non-transaction-related operating expenses [8][10] - The company's current ratio stands at 3.51, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.17, indicating strong liquidity and the ability to cover short-term obligations [13][18] Financial Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Sezzle's 2025 sales is projected at $442.1 million, reflecting a 63.1% year-over-year increase, with earnings expected to rise by 77.7% to $3.27 per share [15][16] - Analysts have shown confidence in the company's prospects, with upward revisions in earnings estimates for both 2025 and 2026 [16][18]

Market Analysis & Predictions - The crypto market is currently experiencing manipulation, aiming to shake out participants before a significant market event, coinciding with traditional market events like the FOMC meeting [1][2] - Liquidity is shifting between markets, with stocks currently attracting attention due to their strong performance, while crypto is experiencing a lull [3][9] - The market anticipates a potential rate cut decision following the FOMC meeting, which could trigger a substantial breakout in the crypto market [15][16] - A perfect scenario would involve Bitcoin finding support around previous highs, breaking to the upside, and then experiencing a larger breakout [24] - The analyst believes the market will pump towards the end of the year, but Q1 2026 is uncertain [38] Key Levels & Indicators - Stocks are approaching a target of 6960 [2] - The total crypto market cap hit a high of 409% trillion before selling off to 399% trillion [10] - The altcoin market faces resistance at the $113% trillion level [14] - Bitcoin needs to break over the 1169%K level and clear $120000, which is major support that has to flip [16][17] FOMC Meeting Impact - The market is closely watching upcoming events surrounding the FOMC meeting, including retail sales data, the Fed rate decision, and jobless claims data [19][20][21] - A rate cut is expected, potentially leading to a surge in Bitcoin to 665%K, mirroring the market's reaction to the rate cut in September 2024 [22] - The analyst anticipates rate cuts in September, October, and December, potentially leading to a substantial increase in market liquidity [36]