2025 年 7 月 10 日 商 品 研 究 沥青：暂时震荡，警惕原油上行风险 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2507 | 元/吨 | 3,620 | -1.15% | 3,620 | 0.00% | | | BU2508 | 元/吨 | 3,647 | 0.75% | 3,658 | 0.30% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2507 | 手 | 42 | (648) | 1,119 | (13) | | | BU2508 | 手 | 3,974 | 1,006 | 15,024 | (1,821) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 82300 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前 ...

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡思路 | 乐观氛围主导，焦煤强势运行 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 原材料支撑走强，焦炭震荡上行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 7 月 10 日） 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 940.0 ...

金信期货日刊 2025/07/10 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 焦煤期货价格上涨原因及影响与展望 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 2025年7月9日，焦煤期货价格出现上涨，这一现象值得关注。从供应端来看，主产区安全检查升级，6月 山西、陕西、内蒙古超30处煤矿停产整顿，且市场有消息称下半年产能置换窗口将关闭，预计减产1.2亿 吨每年 ，使得焦煤供应紧张。7月1日实施的《矿产资源法》提高煤矿产能门槛，30%小煤矿面临退出，如 山西首批1200万吨产能停产，优质主焦煤供应吃紧，现货价格逆势上涨50元/吨。 需求方面，正值"迎峰度夏" ，全国高温预警频发，电厂日耗突破240万吨，焦化行业开工率回升至82%， 创下年内新高。铁水日产回升至235万吨，焦化厂开工率73%，钢厂被动补库推高短期需求 。 焦煤期货价格上涨，会使钢铁企业生产成本增加，可能推动钢铁价格上涨。还会提升市场对煤炭行业的信 心，吸引更多资金流入。把握回调低吸多的机会。 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的P ...

Market Overview - US stocks rose, led by major tech companies, with the Nasdaq up nearly 1% and the S&P 500 gaining 0.61% [2] - Nvidia's market capitalization briefly surpassed $4 trillion, closing up 1.8%, leading the tech giants [3] - US Treasury prices rebounded, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping nearly 7 basis points [2][6] - Bitcoin surged to $112,000, marking a nearly 19% increase this year [2] - Oil prices remained stable despite a significant increase in crude oil inventories, the largest since January [2] Key Economic Indicators - China's June CPI rose 0.1% year-on-year, with core CPI reaching a 14-month high, while PPI's year-on-year decline expanded to 3.6% [3][10] - Trump's new tariffs target eight countries, with a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, the highest to date [3][10] - The US Treasury Department reported a significant decrease in the risk of a "debt issuance wave" [12] Company News - Nvidia's market cap reached $4 trillion, with expectations for strong earnings in the upcoming earnings season [15] - OpenAI is set to launch an AI browser, challenging Google's Chrome dominance [15] - Amazon's extended Prime Day sales saw a significant drop in initial sales, raising concerns about consumer interest [15] - Hong Kong Jockey Club plans to sell $1 billion in private equity funds, including assets from Blackstone and Warburg Pincus [15][16] Industry Insights - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a recovery, with excavator sales in June up 13% year-on-year [25] - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a "de-involution" movement, with supply-side reforms expected to impact the silicon material segment [26] - The AI sector in China is seeing strong growth, with AI agents and multi-modal models becoming key growth drivers [20]

得益于产品结构优化、成本控制和市场拓展，燕京啤酒（000729）实现营收、净利双增长。 近日，燕京啤酒(000729.SZ)公告称，预计2025年上半年归属于上市公司股东的净利润(简称"净利润")为 10.62亿元至11.37亿元，同比增长40%至50%。上半年，公司净利润规模已接近2024年全年水平。 长江商报记者注意到，2020年至2024年，燕京啤酒营收从109.28亿元跃升至146.67亿元，净利润从1.97 亿元增至10.56亿元，四年间营收净利连增，营收累计增长34%，净利润累计增幅超4倍。 业绩稳定增长，得益于公司坚定推进大单品战略和中高端产能扩张。数据显示，2020年至2024年，燕京 啤酒中高档产品的收入占比由59.81%增至67.01%，成为业绩增长的"压舱石"。 业绩、品牌价值齐增长 燕京啤酒是中国知名的啤酒品牌，也是老牌国产啤酒，公司于1997年7月上市。 近日，燕京啤酒公告称，预计2025年上半年净利润为10.62亿元至11.37亿元，同比增长40%至50%。上 半年，公司净利润规模已接近2024年全年水平。 燕京啤酒表示，报告期内，公司以系统性变革为牵引，构建了多维度的价值创造体系 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Shida Shenghua (603026.SH) is facing significant financial pressure due to its aggressive expansion strategy in the electrolyte solvent market, leading to expected losses in the first half of 2025 [2][4][10]. Financial Performance - Shida Shenghua anticipates a net loss of between 52 million to 60 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a substantial decline of 236.64% to 257.66% compared to the same period last year [6][8]. - The company's revenue has been on a downward trend, with reported revenues of 83.16 billion yuan in 2022, 56.35 billion yuan in 2023, and 55.47 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting year-on-year changes of -32.24% and -1.56% [8]. - The net profit has also decreased significantly, from 8.91 billion yuan in 2022 to just 1.64 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a continuous decline over three years [8]. Expansion Strategy - The company has been actively expanding its production capacity, with plans to raise up to 45 billion yuan for various projects, including a 30,000-ton electrolyte project in Dongying and a 20,000-ton project in Wuhan [4][12]. - Despite the ambitious expansion, the company faced regulatory scrutiny and had to adjust its fundraising plans multiple times, ultimately reducing the target to 10 billion yuan [5][12][13]. - The expansion projects have not yet reached full production capacity, contributing to high fixed costs and operational losses [6][14]. Market Conditions - The electrolyte and carbonate market is currently oversupplied, which has led to declining product prices and increased competition within the solvent industry [3][15]. - The company has reported that the prices of key products, such as methyl tert-butyl ether and lithium fluoride, have dropped significantly, further impacting profitability [7][14]. Strategic Partnerships - Shida Shenghua has strengthened its strategic partnerships with major players like CATL and BYD, which has led to a significant increase in electrolyte sales and market share [14].

金融市场犹如变幻莫测的海洋，时刻涌动着投资与经济政策的波澜，深刻影响着全球经济的走向。在 此，喜娜AI为您呈上昨夜今晨的财经热点新闻，全方位覆盖股市动态、经济数据、企业财务状况以及 政策更新等关键领域，助您精准洞察金融世界的风云变幻，把握市场脉搏。 英伟达市值突破4万亿美元，美股早盘上扬关注关税与纪要 北京时间7月9日晚，美股早盘继续上扬，英伟达市值突破4万亿美元，成为史上首家达此里程碑公司。 其股价一度涨2.5%，今年涨22%，估值增约7000亿美元。同时，特朗普威胁大幅提高进口铜和药品关 税，投资者关注贸易局势及美联储货币政策会议纪要。此前周二美股震荡，受特朗普关税政策更新影 响。此外，美欧接近达成贸易协议。详情>> 特朗普威胁征收高额关税，美国铜价飙升 当地时间7月8日，特朗普表示将对进口铜征收50%关税，对进口药品征收最高200%关税，给企业一年 到一年半调整时间。美国铜价飙升逾10%，突破历史高点。周二美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指收 跌。特朗普还称美联储主席鲍威尔应辞职，应降息。此外，他批准向乌克兰运送武器，考虑对俄追加制 裁。详情>> 中国资产暴涨，市场风险偏好抬升 美国时间7月8日，美股三大指 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 07 月 09 日 通胀或已行至年内底部 —2025 年 6 月通胀数据点评 频率：每月 点评报告 相关报告 1、《关税新阶段——7 月 7 日 美国新关税政策点评》2025-07- 08 2、《通胀仍在低位震荡—— 2025 年 6 月宏观经济预测报 告》2025-07-05 3、《降息预期回调，但风偏仍 向好——2025 年 6 月美国就业 数据分析》2025-07-04 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 罗丹 S1090524070004 luodan7@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ CPI：6 月 CPI 同比 0.1%，由负转正；环比-0.1%，跌幅收窄。结构上来 看，1）6 月以来，农产品供应进入旺季，比如蛋类、蔬菜等供给较为充 足，当月食品 CPI 同比延续跌势，录得-0.3%，其中猪肉拖累最大，价格 同比录得-8.5%，较上月下降 11.6 个百分点，在猪周期以及需求淡季作用 下，猪肉供需失衡进一步加剧。2）6 月国际油价因伊以冲突一度大幅上 行，传导至国 ...

当米其林餐厅的包间不再需要提前半月预订，商务宴请的觥筹交错被家庭小聚的轻声笑语取代，从人均过千的高端餐厅到人均百元的连锁品牌，依赖政商 宴请的经营模式受到冲击，行业正面临从客群结构到运营逻辑的转型。餐企们或收缩战线，或苦练内功，试图在"高成本、低客流"的夹缝中找到穿越周期 的密码。 "干了20多年餐饮，现在突然不会干了。"郑拓在一线城市主理一家人均消费过千元的米其林餐厅，尽管凭借古朴清雅的环境和多元化客群保持相对稳定的 运营，但不少同行的处境令他颇为感慨。"很多特别认真经营的朋友，尤其开连锁餐饮的，这两年赔得一塌糊涂，甚至有的成为失信人。" 这场寒流并非局部现象。以杨辉经营的中高端徽菜连锁品牌为例，其6月以来营收整体下滑15%-20%，他向搜狐美食透露，由于安徽在5月出现两起违规吃 喝事件，"后面就收得特别紧"；北京商务宴请（尤其是政商场景）大幅缩减，"区域差异达10个百分点"，部分门店包间使用率不足三成。 从厨三十年的江适原将餐厅定位中高档的精致川菜，连续多年斩获米其林、黑珍珠荣誉，如今餐厅客单价已从人均300-500元降至150-200元。政务客 群"基本消失"，私人企业消费也普遍降级。"人均500元成了 ...

Core Insights - The June CPI turned positive year-on-year at 0.1%, indicating a recovery in consumer prices, while the PPI continued to face downward pressure at -3.6% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [13][24]. - The report highlights a significant increase in sales of excavators and loaders, with year-on-year growth expanding, indicating a recovery in the engineering machinery sector [1][24]. - The semiconductor industry showed a positive trend with global semiconductor sales increasing year-on-year, despite a decline in smartphone shipments [3][32]. Industry Overview Consumer Demand - The CPI improvement was driven by rising prices in fresh fruits and vegetables, with fresh fruit prices increasing by 6.1% year-on-year, and fresh vegetable price declines narrowing significantly [15][24]. - Household appliances saw a positive CPI growth of 1.0%, supported by ongoing consumer promotion policies [16][24]. - The demand for gold jewelry remained strong, with prices for 925 silver and foot gold increasing by 18.0% and 37.8% year-on-year, respectively [16][24]. Resource Products - Coal prices have risen, with significant increases in the prices of Qinhuangdao mixed coal and Shanxi coking coal, indicating a tightening supply [25]. - The report noted a mixed performance in the steel sector, with construction steel transaction volumes increasing while prices for some steel products remained under pressure [25]. Information Technology - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 2.43% week-on-week, while the Taiwan Semiconductor Index declined, indicating a divergence in regional semiconductor performance [26]. - Prices for DDR4 and DDR5 DRAM memory showed a downward trend, with 8GB DDR4 prices decreasing by 1.15% to $5.00 [29][31]. - The smartphone market faced challenges, with May shipments declining by 21.20% year-on-year, reflecting a broader trend of reduced consumer electronics demand [32]. Midstream Manufacturing - The report highlighted an increase in the sales of various types of excavators and loaders, with year-on-year growth expanding, suggesting a recovery in the construction and engineering machinery sectors [1][24]. - The report also noted a decline in prices for certain components in the photovoltaic industry, indicating ongoing price adjustments in the renewable energy sector [25]. Financial and Real Estate - The real estate market showed signs of weakness, with a decline in land transaction premium rates and a decrease in the area of commercial housing sold [25]. - The report indicated a net withdrawal in the money market, with a decrease in A-share turnover rates and daily transaction volumes [25].