关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 7 . 5 - 7 . 1 1 目录 热点思考 高频跟踪 电话会议 、 1、热点思考 | 《美丽大法案》：再次引爆"国债恐慌"？ 2、热点思考 | 居民如何"反内卷"？ 3、热点思考 | 弱美元与"去美元化"是两码事！ 4、热点思考 | "反内卷"，被低估的决心 1、6月通胀：三大分化 2、从对等关税到"歧视性关税" 3、国内高频 | 出行强度保持高位 4、海外高频 | 关税豁免即将到期，警惕关税升级风险 5、政策高频 | 中央财经委员会第六次会议召开 | 法案中文名 | 法案英文名 | स्टेसि | 任职总统 | 当年名义 GDP(万 | 10 年赤字影响万亿美元) | 占当年 GDP 比 | 方向 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 亿美元) | | 里 | | | 《经济复苏减税法》 | Economic Recovery Tax Act (ERTA) | 1981 | 里根 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 24% ...

昨日，国内股指期货全线飘红，盘中突破前期高点，创阶段性新高。 南华期货权益与固收研究分析师王映认为，在市场情绪乐观的背景下，结构性行情带动股指整体上涨。 从期指衍生品指标来看，近期沪深两市交易活跃度提升，期指升贴水率及期权隐波等指标，均显示市场 情绪偏积极，市场较容易被带动全面上行。 "这是利好事件持续发酵、确定性逐渐增强的结果。"国泰君安期货市场分析师陈骏昊认为，首先，"反 内卷"政策带来利多驱动，使得市场对新一轮供给侧改革预期升温，前期持续调整的新能源和建材板块 出现了明显转向。其次，国内CPI由负转正，6月CPI结束连续4个月下降，核心CPI继续上涨，触及14个 月高位，市场信心有所提振。最后，稳定币概念股持续发酵、中美贸易格局偏暖等因素，也令股市风险 偏好持续回升，为指数向上运行打下重要基础。 金辉表示，7月以来，股指期货整体呈现上涨趋势，其驱动力为哑铃策略的应用。哑铃策略是一种通过 极端分化的资产配置来实现风险平衡的投资方法，即将资金集中于高风险高收益（进攻端）和低风险低 波动（防御端）两类资产。当前哑铃策略的防御端为银行板块，银行股的高股息属性受到资金追捧，而 近期险资、公募基金、被动资金形成合力 ...

市场监管总局介绍"内卷式"竞争7类典型违法违规行为包括：商业宣传违法行为、商业诋毁行为、不正当价格行为、质量不合格行为、平 台制定不合理规则行为、滥用市场支配地位行为、不当干预市场竞争行为。 市场监管总局竞争政策协调司二级巡视员刘凤双称："比如，通过组织虚假交易等方式，帮助其他经营者进行虚假或者引人误解的商业宣 传，就属于商业宣传违法行为。比如编造、传播虚假信息或者误导性信息，损害竞争对手的商业信誉、商品声誉，就是典型的商业诋毁行 为。" 此外，市场监管总局明确，伪造或者冒用认证标志等质量标志；伪造产品产地，伪造或者冒用他人的厂名、厂址等质量不合格行为；为了 排挤竞争对手或者独占市场，以低于成本的价格倾销，扰乱正常的生产经营秩序等不当价格行为；具有市场支配地位的经营者以不公平的低价 购买商品，或者没有正当理由、以低于成本的价格销售商品等滥用市场支配地位行为，均属于可能导致"内卷式"竞争的典型违法违规行为。 央视网消息：市场监管总局部署综合整治"内卷式"竞争，维护公平竞争市场秩序。立足市场监管职责，市场监管总局梳理了可能导致"内 卷式"竞争的7类典型违法违规行为，增强监管执法针对性，强化整治成效。 市场监管总局 ...

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 陈礼清 博士 chenliqing@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 2025 上半年大类资产表现为黄金＞欧股＞港股＞铜 ＞ 多 VIX ＞比特币＞中证 1000 ＞美股＞上证综指＞日经＞原油＞美元，节奏演绎"反转—反转—再反 转"。一季度港股黄金领跑，美股日股比特币靠后；二季度美股日股比特币反弹领涨，恒生科技收跌，A股资产涨幅收敛。美元呈单边弱势。我们编制的大类资产轮 动指数显示上半年资产以及 A 股行业轮动加快，尤其是一季度与 5-6 月， 19 类大类资产排名总变动名次数自 2014 年 12 月下旬的 116.7 名次升至 2025 年 3 月的 134.7 名次， 4 月重新降至 115 名次，但 5-6 月再度回升至 133.8 名次。在每一轮反转交易的中后段，资产与行业均轮动速度加快。我们理解，"赔率"在反转交易 的"前端与尾端"均扮演着重要角色。一方面，经济预期抢跑与事件性风险驱动易引发"折返"、"冲回"式反转交易，而避险与趋险资产快速沿胜率方向"超买"、"超 卖"，又重新打出新一轮"反转交易"空间。另一方面，"反转交易"中后段，占优资产若继续 ...

2025中国汽车论坛昨天（11日）在上海开幕。针对汽车行业反"内卷式"竞争这一热点话题，中国汽车工业协会相关负责人表示，近期政府部门、协会及企业 相继推出一系列有力举措，将进一步促进行业健康有序发展。 0:00 自今年5月底中国汽车工业协会发布《关于维护公平竞争秩序 促进行业健康发展的倡议》以来，汽车行业开启了反内卷的热潮。工业和信息化部等多部门迅 速表态，密集推出系列举措：启动机动车产品生产一致性监督检查，明确支持车企践行60天账期承诺，开通重点车企账期执行情况反映窗口等。企业层面， 数十家主流车企也响应自律号召，通过缩短付款周期、优化经销商返利机制等方式落实行动。 中国汽车工业协会副秘书长 李邵华：这些举措都是为了从根本上解决我们现在的竞争无序问题，这些措施我相信能够在很快的时间内真正见效，推动我们 的市场秩序向有序良性发展。 中国汽车工业协会有关负责人同时表示，我国汽车行业下一步发展需要适应全球化的更大市场，需要更高效、更高质量的供应链体系，包括借助人工智能技 术，数字化技术等科技手段，推动产业高质量绿色发展。 中国汽车工业协会副秘书长 李邵华：需要从国家构建绿色低碳的发展政策体系、法规体系，以及我们企 ...

Group 1: Company Announcements - Dongxing Securities has received approval from the CSRC to issue no more than 20 billion yuan in corporate bonds and no more than 5 billion yuan in perpetual subordinated bonds [5] - Lepu Medical's hyaluronic acid injection product has received registration approval from the National Medical Products Administration [5] - HNA Holding has completed the disposal of its A-share stock in Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank [5] - Yunda Lifeng is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5] - Kefu Medical is also planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5] - Xingchen Technology is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5] - Jiaotong Angli is under investigation by the CSRC for suspected violations of information disclosure [5] - Yuanzhi Communication is under investigation by the CSRC for suspected false financial data reporting [5] - China CRRC expects a year-on-year net profit increase of 60% to 80% for the first half of the year [5] - Guosen Securities anticipates a year-on-year net profit increase of 52% to 76% for the first half of the year [5] - Zhongling Heavy Industry expects a year-on-year net profit increase of 50% to 65% for the first half of the year [5] - Dongpeng Beverage expects a year-on-year net profit increase of 33.48% to 41.57% for the first half of the year [5] - China Jushi anticipates a year-on-year net profit increase of 71.65% to 76.85% for the first half of the year [5] - Zangge Mining expects a year-on-year net profit increase of 34.93% to 46.49% for the first half of the year [5] - Jingneng Power expects a year-on-year net profit increase of 103.24% to 134.74% for the first half of the year [5] - Guolian Zhansheng expects a year-on-year net profit increase of approximately 1183% for the first half of the year [5] - China National Materials Technology expects a year-on-year net profit increase of 80.77% to 123.81% for the first half of the year [5] - Yayi International anticipates a year-on-year net profit increase of 170% to 244% for the first half of the year [5] Group 2: Industry Developments - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have released guidelines for the procedural trading report requirements for investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect, effective January 12, 2026 [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has published the 2025 work points for the integration of informatization and industrialization, focusing on promoting digital transformation [1] - The China Automotive Industry Association is taking measures to prevent "involution overflow" as part of its efforts to promote orderly growth in overseas markets [1] - The Xinhua-Baltic International Shipping Center Development Index Report for 2025 indicates that Singapore, London, and Shanghai remain the top three global shipping centers, with Shanghai narrowing the gap with London significantly [1] - The China Securities Association has issued opinions to strengthen self-regulation and promote high-quality development in the securities industry [1]

Group 1 - A-shares have broken through the 3500-point mark, a level not seen since January 24, 2022, indicating a potential bull market phase [1][2] - Historically, A-shares have only broken through 3500 points from the bottom four times, with the previous three occurrences being in bull markets [1] - The real estate sector is showing signs of recovery, driven by rumors of solutions to real estate issues, which may support market sentiment [1][2] Group 2 - Supply-side reforms are crucial in addressing internal competition, which will impact domestic demand and technological innovation [1] - The technology sector is experiencing positive changes, with companies like Zhiyuan Robotics planning a reverse merger and Changxin Storage starting its listing guidance, potentially boosting the industry chain and market risk appetite [1] - Recent news includes a 2% increase in pension for retirees and several companies releasing impressive earnings forecasts, indicating positive economic signals [1]

Group 1: Industry Insights - The China Automobile Industry Association is actively working to prevent "involution spillover" by promoting respect for local cultures and laws during overseas expansion, aiming for orderly growth [1] - The association has reported positive progress in anti-involution efforts, with mainstream industry players taking proactive measures to enhance self-discipline [1] Group 2: Company Performance - GAC Group expects a net loss of 1.82 billion to 2.6 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a net profit of 1.516 billion yuan in the same period last year, due to slow sales of new energy models and the impact of price wars [1] - XPeng Motors has officially communicated a commitment to a 60-day payment term to suppliers, marking a significant adjustment in its payment practices [1] Group 3: Market Developments - Volkswagen is reportedly planning to close its Nanjing factory by the end of this year, marking the first complete shutdown of a manufacturing plant in China, although SAIC Volkswagen claims operations are normal [2] - Tesla will open its first experience center in Mumbai, India, on July 15, showcasing popular models and providing test drives and consultations, indicating its entry into the Indian market [3] - Mercedes-Benz India reported a 10% year-on-year increase in retail sales for April to June, reaching 4,238 units, driven by demand for high-end models and a 157% increase in electric vehicle sales [4] Group 4: Regulatory Impact - Volkswagen has paused deliveries of an electric vehicle to the U.S. due to dissatisfaction with seat width and significant punitive tariffs imposed by the U.S. government, which have increased from 2.5% to 27.5% since April, potentially costing German manufacturers over 11 billion euros this year [5]

"反内卷"聚焦新兴制造业 随着政策持续发力，"反内卷"已成为市场新的投资主线，钢铁、光伏等板块强势反弹。截至7月11日，6 月23日以来国泰钢铁ETF上涨12.18%，汇添富光伏龙头ETF、银华光伏50ETF、华泰柏瑞光伏ETF等涨 幅超过13%。 资金面则呈现显著分化。对于相关传统行业如钢铁板块，资金选择获利了结；而新兴领域如光伏行业， 则吸引资金持续加仓。Choice数据显示，截至7月10日，6月23日以来国泰钢铁ETF被净赎回7.29亿元。 同期，光伏主题ETF净申购额合计20.82亿元。其中，华泰柏瑞光伏ETF份额增至169.61亿份，创上市以 来新高。 这种分歧的背后，与"反内卷"的聚焦方向密切相关。富国基金认为，"反内卷"聚焦行业并非黑色板块相 关的传统行业，而是光伏、锂电池、新能源汽车、电商平台等新兴领域。 富国基金分析称，传统上游资源品的资本开支扩张情况并不严重，因此短期对于传统上游资源品影响不 大。"反内卷"聚焦中下游制造，对于初期的上游商品来说，或带来需求小幅下行。下游竞争格局优化、 终端需求改善后，有望再度拉动上游需求。 投资锚定"质"与"势" ◎记者 赵明超 近期，"反内卷"相关投资机 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese automotive industry is undergoing a transformation towards electrification and intelligent networking, facing structural challenges and intensified competition [1][2] - The 2025 China Automotive Forum held discussions on moving away from detrimental "involution" competition and focusing on value creation [1] - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) emphasizes the need for a long-term mechanism to shift market dynamics from price-driven to value-driven [1][4] Group 2 - In the first half of 2023, China's automotive production and sales both exceeded 15 million units, with year-on-year growth of 12.5% and 11.4% respectively [2] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) have become a dominant force in the market, with production and sales reaching 6.968 million and 6.937 million units, marking year-on-year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% [2][3] - NEVs accounted for 44.3% of total new car sales, and the total NEV ownership ratio has reached 10% [2][3] Group 3 - The ongoing "anti-involution" discussions highlight the need for industry players to address the negative impacts of price wars on profitability and innovation [4][6] - Industry leaders stress the importance of collaboration and trust among global automotive companies to foster sustainable development [4][6] - The call for a return to "long-termism" in business practices is gaining traction, with industry representatives advocating for a focus on brand value and customer insights [7]