金十数据7月9日讯，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁7月9日在国新办举行的"高质量完成'十四五'规划"首场 新闻发布会上表示，我国5年经济增量预计将超过35万亿元，相当于广东、江苏、山东也就是排名前3经 济大省2024年的总量，超过长三角地区的总量，也超过世界排名第3国家的总量，每年对世界经济增长 的贡献率保持在30%左右。 （新华社） 我国"十四五"期间经济增量预计将超过35万亿元 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 9 日 星期三 【A 股市场大势研判】 大盘震荡走高，沪指逼近 3500 点 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3497.48 | 0.70% | 24.35 | | | 深证成指 | 10588.39 | 1.47% | 152.89 | | | 沪深 300 | 3998.45 | 0.84% | 33.28 | | | 创业板 | 2181.08 | 2.39% | 50.89 | | | 科创 50 | 991.95 | 1.40% | 13.66 | | | 北证 50 | 1420.99 | 1.36% | 19.07 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信 | 2.89% | 公用事业 ...

| | | | | | | | 发布日期: 2025/07 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | W 分格号: F025 V 行业板块 | | 品种 | | 趋势研判 | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | | | | 短期内,市场成交量逐步小幅萎缩,加上国内外利多因素平平, | | | | | | 股指 | | | 股指向上突破存在阻力,或呈现震荡格局,后续关注宏观增量信 息对股指方向的指引。C | | | | 宏观金融 | | 国债 | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | | | | | Fift | 震荡 | | 空间。 市场不确定性仍存,金价短期料震荡为主,关注关税进展。G | | | | | | 白银 | 農汤 | | 关税不确定性仍存,银价料震荡为主。 | | | | | | 월미 | 看答 | | 美国非农大超预期,打压降息预期,叠加海外挤仓风险有所降 温,铜价存在回调风险。 | | | | | | | | | 美联储降息预期降温,叠加高价压制下游需求,铝价存在回落风 | | ...

Group 1: Market Performance - In June, the bond market saw a downward trend in yields, while the equity market performed exceptionally well, leading to impressive returns for "fixed income +" funds, with the highest yield exceeding 7% [1][2] - The average yield for "fixed income +" funds in June reached 1.03%, significantly outperforming traditional bond funds, which had yields of 0.29% for medium to long-term bonds and 0.10% for traditional money market funds [2][6] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.9% in June, closing at 3444 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index saw increases of 4.23% and 8.02%, respectively [2][3] Group 2: Fund Performance - Several "fixed income +" funds recorded outstanding monthly returns, with five funds achieving yields over 5% and two exceeding 7% [2][6] - The top-performing fund, Jin Ying Yuan Feng A, achieved a net value return of 7.52%, leading the category [2][6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The total transaction volume in June reached 26.72 trillion yuan, with a daily average of 1.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 79.57% [3] - New account openings in June increased by 53% year-on-year, indicating a significant recovery in retail investor sentiment [3] Group 4: Bond Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that favorable factors for the bond market are developing, with expectations of incremental monetary policy support potentially benefiting long-term government bonds and various credit bonds [4][5] - The funding environment in July is typically characterized by lower rates, which may lead to increased liquidity and support for the bond market [4][5] - Institutional behavior, particularly from the insurance sector, may provide additional support for the bond market if the predetermined interest rates remain below 2.25% [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the intense competition in the food delivery and instant retail market, particularly focusing on Meituan's strategies and challenges amid aggressive subsidies from competitors like Taobao and JD.com [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since mid-June, Meituan's daily payment orders have remained above 90 million, but its market share in terms of order volume has dropped from over 70% to below 60% due to faster growth from competitors [4][6]. - Taobao Shanguo has launched a 500 billion subsidy, marking the largest subsidy war in the history of food delivery, while JD.com has also committed significant resources to compete [5][8]. - The total daily order peak in the competitive landscape has exceeded 180 million, with tea and coffee orders making up a significant portion of the growth [10][11]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Meituan is expected to increase its subsidies by at least 10 billion yuan compared to last year, with potential additional spending of 15 to 20 billion yuan if competition intensifies in the second half of the year [4][8]. - Meituan's core local business, which includes food delivery, is projected to generate an operating profit of 524 billion yuan in 2024, with food delivery contributing approximately 325 billion yuan, accounting for over 60% of the profit [10][11]. - The total subsidy expenditure for Meituan in food delivery could reach 40 to 50 billion yuan this year, reflecting the competitive pressures in the market [10][11]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Meituan's main competitors, JD.com and Alibaba, are not reliant on food delivery for profitability, which differentiates them from Meituan, where local services are a primary profit source [10][13]. - The competition has evolved into a battle for online retail growth, with Taobao Shanguo emerging as Meituan's primary rival [12][14]. - Meituan is closely monitoring potential threats from Douyin and Pinduoduo, which are also exploring opportunities in instant retail and food delivery [14][15]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - Meituan's leadership has indicated a commitment to win the competition at all costs, reflecting a strategic pivot towards aggressive market engagement [16][17]. - The company is adapting its subsidy strategies dynamically based on competitor actions, indicating a responsive approach to market changes [8][10]. - Meituan's management is focused on maintaining order volumes despite competitive pressures, with internal assessments suggesting that the battle may last one to two years [10][11].

2025.7.5更新：不确定性：https://t.co/U4g65DLlqWXQ (@0xXQ1):最近思考总结的2个结论：1. 币圈所有大行情的来源只有2个，一个是底层技术变革，一个是外部增量预期。2. 收益的来源也只有两个，一个是信息差，一个是承担不确定性。1的坑回头填上，本次 $AP 也不涉及，2里的信息差之前置顶帖给过原因，这里用近期几个例子讲一下对不确定性的理解。 https://t.co/2upUx1VQ0G ...

最近思考总结的2个结论：1. 币圈所有大行情的来源只有2个，一个是底层技术变革，一个是外部增量预期。2. 收益的来源也只有两个，一个是信息差，一个是承担不确定性。1的坑回头填上，本次 $AP 也不涉及，2里的信息差之前置顶帖给过原因，这里用近期几个例子讲一下对不确定性的理解。 https://t.co/2upUx1VQ0G ...

今天股市情绪很热，创业板涨了2个点，年初至今，主要宽基里，除了科创50，其他的，年内收 益全部都是正的了。 而今天A股和H股的分化，也能从资金的角度去理解——两融的日度数据还没出来，但是今天大 概率是继续净流入的，宁德时代这种幅度的大涨，大概率就是融资加仓的结果，而南向那边，则 净卖出超过30亿， 连续净买入的记录戛然而止 ，港股几个指数也因此下跌，和A股背离。 ...... OK，上面说到南向资金的事情，顺带简单聊下标题的话题—— 后续，股市的增量资金在哪里？ 我之前写过一篇，《 谁是真正的长期资金？ 》，里面画过一个表格，下图，从几个维度，分析，谁真 的有钱，且现阶段， 真的 有意愿加仓A股，并长期持有。 当时的结论是， 只有国家队，和保险的OCI账户及体外私募大基金 ，这两块，有大钱，且属于 长钱；如果一定要加的话，券商的自营账户，今年通过互换便利，也加了不少仓。 正好上半年，ETF和南下的资金数据都出来了，我多列几个，大家就能感受到今年的实际情况 了： 1、 南下资金 ，上半年，净买入7300亿左右 ，而去年全年是8000亿，也就是上半年的规模，已经 接近去年全年了，这是导致今年港股领涨的核心原因。 ...

从近日财政部出台鼓励外资持续投资中国的税收优惠政策看，财政部有能力及时根据形势变化推 出增量政策。 近日，财政部部长蓝佛安作《国务院关于2024年中央决算的报告》，提出"尽早发行和使用超长期特别国 债、专项债券"。随后，财政部调整了三季度发债节奏，4只超长期特别国债提前发行。这体现了中央财政 对"两重""两新"等稳增长工作的高度重视和大力支持。下半年，用于扩内需、稳增长的财政资金将更加充 足。 在财政部日前更新的发行安排中，有4只超长期特别国债的发行时间较原计划提前7天至14天不等。鉴于国 家发展改革委近期宣布第三批消费品以旧换新资金将在7月下达，财政部提前发债时间无疑将更快补充地 方消费品以旧换新额度，推动"两重""两新"政策的有序实施。 财政部的积极举动并非偶然。6月以来，专项债券、超长期特别国债的发行节奏明显提速，6月专项债券发 行规模创年内新高。可以看到，在前5个月大力发行置换债券、完成大规模"以债化债"之后，财政部门的 工作重心正在转向扩内需稳增长。下半年，专项债券和超长期特别国债将替代置换债券成为政府债券发行 的主力，继续发挥补短板、增后劲、惠民生的作用。 从政府债券发行看，下半年尚有超2万亿元的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Su Super" amateur football league has become a significant driver for economic development in Jiangsu, with sponsorships from major brands and a surge in tourism and cultural consumption [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Impact - The "Su Super" league has attracted sponsorships from prominent brands such as Taobao, Alipay, and Huabei, indicating its growing influence in the sports and economic sectors [1] - Local tourism departments are leveraging the league's popularity by offering various incentives to attract visitors, creating a synergistic ecosystem that enhances economic activity across multiple sectors [1][2] Group 2: Community Engagement - The league has successfully engaged the community through grassroots initiatives, such as song competitions and poster contests, fostering a sense of collective participation and joy [2] - The integration of local products, like peaches and crayfish, into the league's marketing has stimulated interest in regional cuisine and tourism [2] Group 3: Cross-Industry Collaboration - The league exemplifies how sports events can break down industry barriers, creating a collaborative ecosystem that benefits various sectors, including tourism and local businesses [2][3] - The presence of diverse fan groups, such as Taiwanese cheerleaders and support teams from other cities, highlights the cross-regional appeal and economic potential of the league [3] Group 4: Policy Support - The success of the "Su Super" league is supported by coordinated government policies, including financial subsidies and safety measures, which facilitate the conversion of event traffic into economic momentum [3] - A systematic approach to managing the league's economic impact is essential for sustainable growth, emphasizing the need for ongoing collaboration between government and society [3][4] Group 5: Long-term Strategy - To maintain the momentum generated by the league, it is crucial to link event traffic with broader city branding and industrial upgrades, ensuring that the benefits extend beyond the immediate excitement of the events [4] - Continuous innovation and respect for the value of traffic are necessary to transform the league's popularity into lasting economic growth for Jiangsu [4]